Obama on ObamaCare - Obama Advert

Lets Get Real:

It is a very slick advert folks, pulls on the old heart strings, one problem its rubbish. It is the idea that you can get something for nothing in the health service, in the UK it costs billions and the price never goes down. What the advert does not say is that ObamaCare is NOW a TAX. The US Congress did not VOTE for that, the Oval knows it would have never have passed the Congress. If your simple trust the man in this advert, but as Hillary Clinton once stated, SHAME ON YOU.

Repeal ObamaCare - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

In this advert the Romney Campaign promises on day one it will repeal ObamaCare, it places the future of ObamaCare not at the US Supreme Court but with the voters. Do voters want higher medical costs, their taxes to go up, and for business to suffer, thus less workers. Thus the need to repeal ObamaCare. Good Advert folks.

Obama Lies - Romney Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a hard hitting advert folks, it says that President Obama lies, it backs it up with news reports and then Candidate Hillary Clinton having a go at President Obama. It is time for the Romney Camp to fight back hard, its going to be a dirty race, might as well start early. The Oval will also fight dirty, that is the only way they know how to fight.

It was Gordon’s fault - Blair - Labour Feud

Daily Mail: Reports on remarks by former Labour PM Tony Blair that Labour lost 2010 election because his successor Gordon Brown did not follow the New Labour Agenda and Brown forced him out before his time.

Lets Get Real:

This Brown/Blair feud shows not end in sight, from the Brown view it can be argued that he waited years for they keys of No 10, but that Blair in the Brown view broke his word as to when he was going, while from the Blair Camp it can be argued that from 2001 onwards found the then Chancellor a major roadblock to reform. That any agreed deal was based on two points, that Blair would go at a set time if Brown would support and carry on the Blair Agenda, that did not happen thus the deal was void. The Junior Ministers Coup of 2006 forced Blair to set a date, he could have fought on but as he stated in his memoirs he wanted to protect the New Labour brand. One would have thought that the UK brand would have been more important, Party before Country etc, thus if Brown did not follow the New Labour Agenda and failed it would not damage New Labour. That logic failed, with the defeat of Brown the New Labour Project was dead in the water. On this Mr Blair failed to see the long term, Brown not only took down himself but the New Labour idea.

Tony Blair and the EU Presidency

Telegraph: Reports on remarks by former Labour PM Tony Blair, the former PM has stated that he wished he had been the 1st President of the EU, and that he had Campaigned for the post in 2009.

Lets Get Real:

The reason that Blair did not get the nod for the EU Presidency is down to the simple fact that there was no way in hell that then Labour PM Gordon Brown was going to have President Blair sucking up all the media. It can be argued with some justification that Brown did not spend years trying to get rid of Blair for him to be the 1st President of the EU. One can almost imagine Brown going totally bonkers at that thought, so it has to be asked what is the former PM up too, he has dropped hints that he wants to be back in the UK political theatre or in Europe. This is not going to happen folks, the Coalition Government is not going to give Blair that kind of power, he still Labour after all, also the Labour Party under Ed Miliband does not want Blair in the front line, the New Labour Era from the domestic to international field has left to many land mines for the Miliband Era. Thus Blair might think about becoming a TV historian, he would have the access, he is dam good on the TV, he could do a show with Bush 43, a epic diplomatic history of the US/UK relationship.

Romney vs. Obama - The Weekend Polls

The blog is back folks, that should annoy liberals. The shock of the decision by the US Supreme Court over ObamaCare sent this blog in to shock! But then if you think about it folks the Chief Justice could have given a poison pill to ObamaCare TAX, in essence the Chief Justice was stating that it was up to the VOTERS to make the decision, thus if you want ObamaCare Tax to end you have to vote for the Republicans. Thus lets see the our usual polls folks.

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports in today's daily tracking poll that President Obama leading Governor Romney by 46% to 44%. A 2% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports in today's daily tracking poll that President Obama is leading Governor Romney by 48% to 43%. A 5% lead.

Lets Get Real:

What the subjective merits of the decision by the US Supreme Court when it came to ObamaCare Tax it has to be said on the objective level that it has been a good week for the Oval. The run up to the decision was the expectation that the Court would throw out the Individual Mandate but keep the rest of the law, well as it turned out for the Oval it got the whole law with the exception of forcing the States to expand their welfare programme to deal with the poor. The States would have suffered losing federal money if they did not follow through with the plan, the Supremes threw that part of ObamaCare TAX out. It is and will be seen as a political victory for President Obama, thus the bounce in the polls, but folks its early, lets see the negative adverts that recall POTUS stating that ObamaCare was not a TAX and then his lawyers stating it was a tax, in other words someone lied, did Obama to the US voter or the his lawyers to the US Supreme Court.

ObamaCare - Judgement Day - Thursday

The Hill: Reports on the lead up to the US Supreme Court deciding the fate of ObamaCare.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks it comes down to 9 individuals, the Supremes, the three main options are, 1, ObamaCare is upheld, 2, It is thrown OUT, 3, the Individual Mandate is stated to be illegal but the rest of ObamaCare can stand. This folks would please Republicans up to a point and most Americans, as to the rest of ObamaCare standing there is a problem, how are you going to fund it, the Republican House wont give POTUS a dime, never mind a new health care law, thus it will become a 2012 issue. The prediction of this blog, its not going to do one, there are to many variables in this case, but this blog would not be surprised to see the law allowed to stand, the Court might think it is the job of the Congress to repeal the Act, on the other hand it might throw the whole thing out, as I said folks, to many variables, this blog hates to be wrong. Lets see what Thursday bring folks.

Blair and the NHS

Telegraph: Reports that former Labour PM Tony Blair is defending the use by the last Labour Government of private finance initiative in the building of hospitals in the NHS, as the article notes the problem is that " The total value of the NHS buildings built by Labour under the scheme is £11.4bn.....But the bill,...will come to more than £70bn on current projections ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus New Labour took the economy over a cliff with its spending, it did not regulate the banks as it should have, the mess of Iraq and Afghanistan cost the lives of many hundreds of UK Soldiers and other personnel, NOW it seems private business will get 60 billion out of the PFI deal. As the articles notes many NHS hospitals are heading for the wall, the New Labour experiment was a bloody disaster, with the exception of Northern Ireland can any one think of a long term policy that has worked. Lets not forget that the UK could lose Scotland due to the mess of the devolution policy followed by New Labour, thus in many respects Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were the worse PM's in UK history.

Turkey Warning to Syria - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan has warned Syria that any Syrian military that comes close to the Turkish border will be seen as a threat, thus Turkey will take action if there is such an incident.

Lets Get Real:

The NATO response has been weak folks, what if the Syrians had shot down a US or UK plane, do you think there would be no action. One can assume that the Oval was on the phone to Turkey over the last few days, making sure they do not take action. Sooner it can be argued that Turkey will get drawn in to the Syrian Civil War, then the War become a proxy war between one one side, Syria, Iran and Russia, on the other side, the rebels, supported by SA, the CIA with the approval of the Oval and and local supporters. Its perfect for Iran, they get to divert the attention of the world from its nuclear plans, the Middle East leaders know how to play games folks.

Carter vs. Obama

Guardian: Reports that the 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter has been critical of the drone strikes of the Obama Administration, the article notes the following by Carter, " Drone strikes and targeted assassinations abroad have seen the US violating human rights,, "

Lets Get Real:

This is the best attack President Obama has had in ages, when Jimmy Carter is critical of you then you must be doing the right thing, the Obama Camp should put the words of Carter in an advert, this will show that the Oval is a hawk when it comes to foreign policy, no wonder the successors to Carter cant stand him, the worse American President in US history is an example not to follow, the Oval should increase these drone strikes, it might get lucky and Carter will heckle Obama at the Democratic Convention, that would be worth a few hundred thousand votes. On this a good day for the Oval,.

Bad Day on the Markets - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph Live - Euro: Reports that US and EU Stock Markets fell today, as Spain officially asked for a a bailout and the EU Summit on Greece this week will start without the the new Greek PM Antonis Samaras and the new Greek Finance Minister Vassilis Rapanos who fell ill and has resigned.

Lets Get Real:

This is train wreak is heading in one direction folks, that is a major crash, the EU can only work with one government and one tax system, anything else is just changing the deck chairs on the Titanic, the Germans want to control the Budgets of the EU if they are going to fund this mess, the rest of the EU has small thing called democracy, the voters in these countries are not going to give up democracy as to please Berlin. The US is to much in debt to help, thus do not expect much help from the Obama Oval. The new Italian PM said the the EU had a week to save the Euro, well that week as gone, not master plan yet folks. The EU leaders have to get over the fact that the Euro was a bad idea, or they face taking the EU down with the Euro. Nothing last forever folks, NOTHING.

Syrians SHOOT at Turkish Plane - 2nd Time

BBC News: Reports that Turkey has stated that the Assad Regime in Syria has shot at a 2nd Turkish plane as that plane was searching for the first plane downed by the Assad Regime.

Lets Get Real:

At what point does the WEST act, Turkey is a full member of NATO, as any attack one member is an attack on all members, is the Obama Administration going to sell out Turkey as President Kennedy did over the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The Syrians are looking for a fight, the Assad Regime wants to change the Syrian Civil War in to a regional war, who is next, one can see Israel becoming a target, thus to prevent a major regional war the Oval has to take action, or the Republicans should really start to frame Obama as weak on foreign policy, a President who wont stand with the allies of the US. Lets recall that one one of the major negatives against Carter was that he was seen as weak on the world stage. It will be interesting to see if Governor Romney can define Obama as another Carter.

Obama Attacks Romney on his Business record = Again!

Lets Get Real:

This is without doubt the worse political advert this political geek has ever seen, the Obama Campaign IS still going on about Romney record in private business, even after Bill Clinton stated it was not a good idea, he has been backed up by other Democrats. When you have over 8% unemployment as the Oval has you do not get to talk about the loss of jobs. As stated people in glass houses should not thrown stones. The advert might make the Dem base happy but it turns off everyone else, the Oval really has to get its act together, if this is the best they have they are in REAL trouble.

Calling Ohio, A Romney Presidency

Lets Get Real:

This is a very positive advert from the Romney Campaign, the first 100 days of a Romney Administration will see Romney stand up to China, allow business to flourish. These measures will be good for the State of Ohio.

Where are the Greeks ? - Eurozone Crisis

Guardian: Reports that neither the new Greek PM or Finance Minister will attend a EU Summit this week due to health conditions.

Lets Get Real:

If your in Berlin you must be thinking are the Greek Gods sending a message to the new Greek Government, the main point of the EU Summit as from the viewpoint of Athens as the articles notes is to " ..ease the punishing terms of its international bailout. ". The Greeks want major changes, this will not go down well with Berlin as noted in previous post, the Greeks are stalling for time, in many respects they are following the Tehran game plan, play the clock, so the EU gets so fed up it just gives Athens what it wants and thus the Greeks do not have to reform. Lets see how the markets react, also there is Egypt, the election of a Muslim Brotherhood President could cause regional tensions, even war with Israel. Lets hope the Egyptian Army keeps control of the military in Egypt.

Germany on Greece - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph: Reports on comments by Wolfgang Schaeuble the German Finance Minister, Mr Schaeuble the article notes states the following on Greece, " has forfeited much of Europe's trust during the sovereign debt crisis..".

Lets Get Real:

The Germans are fed up with the Greeks, every time they want to change a deal that they agreed to, the Germans must know that there will come a time when they will have to kick Greece out of the Euro, otherwise the German taxpayer will forever on the hook to bailout the Greeks. The Greeks will never reform while in the Euro, why should they, they are under the illusion that the EU and Germany at the end of the day will bail them out, the New Democracy Party won the Greek election with the backing of the older generation, that generation will not be on the Streets in demos against the austerity package that the Greeks have to pass to get the EU money, this is like watching a slow moving train wreck, no wonder the new Greek Finance Minister fainted, any normal person would, poor Greeks, they will never learn.

Housing Benefit AXE - Coalition Government

BBC News: Reports that Coalition PM and Conservative Leader David Cameron has suggested that those under 25 should lose housing benefit.

Lets Get Real:

It is about time that PM Cameron showed he was a Conservative, this is an excellent idea, why should those under 25 get housing benefit if they are on the dole, and might have started a family while on the dole. The welfare state has created lazy, arrogant people, who go straight from School on to welfare and then start a family. They expect the State to bailout them out when they cant keep their basic actions under control. It can be argued that those between 18-25 should not get any welfare benefits, they have done dam all to earn the various benefits. It is time for PM Cameron to care about hard working families who do not get a thing from the State but pay for others to be taken care off, good start by Cameron.

Romney vs. Obama - The Polls

The best time of the week folks, the match up polls of Romney vs. Obama.

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll, today Governor Romney leads President Obama by 48% to 43%. A 5% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll, today Governor Romney leads President by 46% to 45%. A 1% lead.

Lets Get Real:

If your the Romney Camp your happy with the 5% lead in the Rasmussen Poll, but should the lead be bigger if you think of the economic mess in the US, the scandal of the national security leaks and the US Attorney General facing a contempt of Congress charge. If your the Obama Camp you see the race as still tied, if think you about the politics that is a miracle, it shows that POTUS was smart to grant in essence amnesty to illegals in the US, they cant vote but they are a powerful group in swing States. As June/July is the holiday season most US voters will not really wake up to the Campaign in till after Labour Day, that's the start of September for EU readers. These polls are interesting but are just a snap shot, the interesting polls are a few months away, the VP choice for Romney, the Convention speeches, and then the debates. If your a political geek you love this time, endless polls and politics all the time.

What Next ? Syrian Shoot Down

Guardian: Reports the following on the Syrian shoot down of a Turkish military plane, " Turkish media had reported earlier that Syria had apologised for the incident, but ( PM of Turkey ) Erdogan made no mention of an apology. ".

Lets Get Real:

The left wing elite media are in a bind when it comes to Syria, after Iraq War they want any military action to be approved by the UN, but the Russians have made it clear that they are supporting the Assad Regime in Syria, the Russians want to keep their warm water port, there are conflicting reports that the Russians are sending naval vessels to Syria, on board are Russian marines, one line of thought is they are being sent to protect Russians in Syria, the other line is that they are being sent to get the Russians out of Syria should a full scale civil war develop. It will be interesting to see how the BBC, Guardian, NYT run with this story over the next few days. What matters, prevent the deaths in Syria or keeping the UN going at all costs, lets see how they jump folks.

Syrian Shoot DOWN - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following on the shoot down of a Turkish military plane by Syria, the article notes the following, " ..Western powers scrambling over how to respond. ".

Lets Get Real:

One can assume folks that Moscow will be on the line to the Oval and trying to get the Oval to place pressure on Turkey not react in a military manner, the Putin Regime in Russia has blocked any UN action but it has no control over Turkey should it take military action. President Obama will be spending some time in the Situation Room in the White House looking at how Turkey will act, if Turkey uses force then all bets are off, the US will have to back Turkey, this could force Iran to build up its support for the Assad Regime. In Moscow it would force the hand of Putin, does he still support the Assad Regime, even with attack helicopters that could be used on Turkish troops, if you want a real crisis look at the Turkish action should Russian attack helicopters be used on their troops. It only needs a local commander to miss read this crisis for there to be a regional war. Lets hope Israel does not get used as target practice by the Assad Regime.

Turkey vs. Syria - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Syrian Military have shot down a Turkish military plane. The Assad Regime has stated that the plane was in Syrian air space at that the time of the shooting.

Lets Get Real:

There is the politics and the reality folks, the relationship between Syria and Turkey is at rock bottom, from Turkey it has seen refugees from Syria cross the border in to Turkey, the Syrian Army has shot in to Turkey at rebels as the Assad Regime states. Thus we have this latest incident, the Turks might have had enough, they might decide this is the time to send in its military in to Syria to create safe heavens for the Syria people, also support the rebels with arms. On the other hand folks you can bet that the Oval is placing pressure on Turkey not overact, the Oval does not need a regional war before the November election. As any increase in violence could make the Syrian War a proxy war between the US and its allies on the one hand, and then Syria with the support of Iran and Russia on the other, not good for regional stability. The reality is it depends on the location of the shooting, was the Turkish plane in Syrian air space, it does it matter. Lets recall that Turkey is a member of NATO, if Turkey gets in to trouble or a regional war then the US will have to support its ally, that is the point of NATO. Tense days ahead folks.

Obama's Kill List and the Press

Guardian: Reports on a Court filing from the Obama Administration on the attempts by the press to get more information on President Obama's kill list of terrorists, the article notes the following by the Obama Administration, " saying that to release information would hurt national security, even while still insisting it cannot admit any such programme of targeted killing exists. "

Lets Get Real:

The Oval is 100% right its filing to the Court, the Obama kill list is suppose to be one of the most secret covert operations of the US, although there have been leaks about the operation this should not mean that the press should get its hands on these kind of secrets. The blog supports a strong executive, this even means that the Oval was right to say that it was right that internal Justice Department info should not be released to Congress, the contempt resolution against AG Holder is not going anywhere, thus the Republicans should stick the economy, let the public decide if Holder is hiding another Watergate, the Republicans might win November, thus they should not allow a strong Presidency to be weakened, thus on these two issues the White House is right. That is new for this blog.

UK Banks Downgraded - Euro Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that the Credit Agency Moody's has downgraded major UK Banks, the articles notes the following on the Moody's action, " The lower the rating, the higher the interest rates they pay and the more collateral they must offer. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Banks are already not lending to small business even if that business is making money, this downgraded will hit the customer, any costs that the banks see if their borrowing will be paid by the customers. The Banks do have an argument, the 2008 near death of the banking system was due to bad loans, thus the Banks don't want to be in the position that they are charged with throwing money at bad risks. The Euro crisis and the debt hold by EU Banks means that UK Banks are at risk due to the fact that in this Global economic system all the banks are linked. In other words folks at its most basic and harsh, if the EU banking system is taken down by Spain and Italy then the UK is in the toilet and is going to get flushed. If President Obama had not waisted US tax payers money with his domestic record he could have saved the EU, but the Oval spent like a gambling addict, thus is broke, who is going to save the EU folks, in fact who is going to save the Global economic system.

Wall Street and Main Street - USA

BBC News: Reports that Wall Street fell by 250 points today, due to bad economic news from China and the EU.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks a bad day for Wall Street and Main Street, as the pension funds of the public sector will have taken a hit today, never mind the private sector. This was not a good for the Oval, lets see what the Unemployment rate will be at the end of the month. The good news out of the G20 that the EU would deal with Spain seems in detail not have pleased that markets that much, the UK FTSE 100 was down nearly 1%. The more crisis meetings for the EU, either the Euro is saved and fast or the World economy is going to tank, lets see what happens first folks. This blog is not holding its breath for either, we don't have leaders today folks, we have poll followers, for a Reagan or a Thatcher, in the 80s folks we were very lucky in our leaders.

Calling Ohio - Romney TV Advert

Lets Get Real:

Calling Ohio voters, are you happy with the Obama 1st term, if not then listen to this Romney Advert, its your friends, family, fellow workers, they have seen the failure of the Obama record. The advert is rather long but worth a look. At least its not the Obama class warfare of the previous advert.

Romney the Taxer! - Obama TV Advert

Lets Get Real:

If you love the public sector you will love this advert. In this Advert Romney cuts taxes for the rich, himself, while everyone else has to pay the price. In other words another class warfare advert. The advert does not say anything about the Obama 1st term, nothing about HIS domestic record. Also nothing about the future, that is why the Oval is in trouble. If you want to see in to the mind of a tax and spend liberal, watch this advert.

Israeli Strike on Iran - WHEN not IF

Guardian: Reports on the failure in Moscow of the talks between the UN and Iran, the article notes the following, " The failure to make progress in the talks in Moscow makes Israeli military action more likely, but far from inevitable. "

Lets Get Real:

As stated so many times in this blog the Tehran Regime is playing games, it wants endless talks, not for real talks but just to play out the clock. The Israeli Government will have to act before the November election in the US, as any action before then will force the Oval to support a Israeli strike. The Oval can not afford to lose the Israeli Lobby or their money. The EU will never walk away, these talks have been going on for years, its a middle east game, the Tehran Regime understands that the EU will bend over backwards as to prevent Israel taking action, these talks are pointless, the Israel Defence Staff have to get their plans ready, best time to hit Tehran would be late October, thus the Republicans will support Israel, and President Obama will come under pressure from Congressional Democrats to support any military action. These talks have not been on the 24/7 news channels, this is good for Israel, they can attack while the world is divert by the EU crisis and Syria.

The EU Crisis Solution - German Money

Telegraph: Reports that EU leaders have agreed to a 600 billion bailout for Spain and Italy.

Lets Get Real:

This sounds good folks, but the combine debt of Spain and Italy is the trillions not billions, also from the brief details it does not solve the main problem with the Euro, it needs one finance minister, one tax system, one government for it to work, the EU elite might not think democracy matters but it does. Also lets see what the reaction is in Germany, Chancellor Merkel leads a Coalition Government, she needs them to approve any bailout, also its against the Basic Law of Germany for Germany to take on the debts of others. Lets see the details of this deal folks, leaders at a Summit might agree anything if just to get away, politics is politics, deals can fall apart. Lets see how this plays out over the next few days.

The End of Hosni Mubarak ?

BBC News: Reports on the widespread media rumours that the former President of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak is close to death or has died.

Lets Get Real:

It is in the interest of Egypt for the Military to control the foreign policy of Egypt, they should have the final say over any military action, not a newly elected Muslim Brotherhood President. One thing about President Mubarak he kept the peace deal with Israel, a Muslim Brotherhood President who also controls the Parliament would be a major threat to to modern Egypt and to Israel. Lets be clear the Mubarak Regime got what it deserved, it did not reform itself when it had the chance, but one should also say that Egypt under Mubarak was an ally of the US, a future Egypt might be a threat to the West. Thus this blog will lift its hat to President Mubarak, this blog does not like to see a close Western ally thrown to the dogs, because dogs might be very vicious, the Oval just might regret throwing Mubarak under the bus.

Russia and the US - New Cold War ?

The Hill: Reports the following on the meeting between President Obama and President Putin of Russia at the G20 Summit, the article notes the following, " Mounting tensions between the United States and Russia were on full display ...The two leaders made little eye contact as they talked to reporters, and both men gripped their wicker armchairs tightly. Tense smiles were infrequent. ".

Lets Get Real:

When POTS was elected in 2008 he thought that Bush 43 had been to hostile with Russia, thus he wanted a new start, in that process he sold out Poland and the Czech Republic when it came to the placing of US missile defence on their soil, this was seen as a threat by Russia. The problem with this new policy was that it was WRONG, President Putin has KGB in his soul, what Obama saw as a new start was seen in Moscow as a President who could be pushed around, for selling out his Eastern Allies the Oval got nothing, now with Syria the Russians are funding a Cold War ally and have told the Oval to get lost. It is reported that that Russia is sending naval vessels and Russian Marines to defend their warm water Port. The Republican nominee Governor Romney is using the weakness of Obama over Syria as a way to show that Obama does understand foreign policy and is weak. The there will be Iran folks, expect Iran to increase the violence in Syria, they will want to divert the West from its nuclear plans, POTUS has shown that being a community organizer does not cut it to be POTUS. The sad part is that the people of Syria will suffer.

Iran is playing Games - Middle East Crisis

Guardian: Reports the following from Moscow of the latest talks between the Iran and the US and its Allies over Iran's nuclear ambitions. The article notes the following, " ..Iran rejects proposals from six-nation negotiating group and calls for easing of sanctions ".

Lets Get Real:

The Tehran Regime is playing games folks, its waiting out the clock in till it can declare that Iran is a nuclear armed power, then we will really have a crisis, thus one can expect that Israel before or just after the US Presidential Election will hit Iran, it can not wait for the West to take action, that will never happen, and it does not trust President Obama, no great surprise after the Obama White House leaked a Israeli plan to attack Iran. This blog would not be surprised to see Israel hit Iran sometime around October, this would force POTUS to support move or face the wrath of the Israeli lobby. Watch this crisis folks, Iran could use the civil war in Syria to divert the attention of the West from its own developing nuclear plans, they are that bloody and ruthless folks, watch for Syria to get more heated folks.

Spanish Bailout, Not IF but WHEN - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph: Reports on the growing concern about Spain after the 2nd Greek election, the article notes the following, " Fears were also mounting about the health of the Spanish economy. A full-scale bail-out now appears increasingly likely. "

Lets Get Real:

A few hours after the 2nd Greek Election and the successful campaign of New Democracy we see Spanish Bonds remain at the 7% mark. The Markets took a dim view of the 100 billion euro bailout of the Spanish banks as this just added to the debt, also the bonds markets do not want to hold Spanish bonds if they are the last to get paid at the end of the day. Thus the Kingdom of Spain will need a Sovereign bailout, there will have to be tough strings, the local regional governments will have to be told that for a time they are no longer in charge of their budgets. This will go down like a lead balloon, but the EU has to be firm, as with Greece the EU will have to send in regulators to run the Spanish economy, the Spanish Budget will have to be approved by the EU and Germany. That is the only way that Germany will bailout Spain, also the German Chancellor has made it clear, the Greeks have to follow the austerity deal, tense days ahead folks.

President Obama's Job Approval and the Polls

Interesting folks, lets have a look at the job approval polls for POTUS, as usual we will go with the experts.

Job Approval Polls:

Gallup ( Adult Voters ): The tracking poll today has President Obama on 46% Approval, while 47% of Adult Americans Disapprove of the Obama record.

Rasmussen Reports ( Likely Voters ): Reports today that President Obama has a 46% Approval rating, while 53% of likely voters disapprove of the Obama record.

Lets Get Real:

Yes its early folks, but the Chicago Re-Elect Committee should be worried if POTUS stays on 46%, if this trends last then POTUS will join a very exclusive club, one term Presidents who failed to get re-elected. Lets not get ahead of our self's folks, the Chicago Re-Elect and its liberal supporters have not really started to throw their millions at negative adverts that will attempt to define Governor Romney, on the hand the Oval needs some good news on the domestic front, it can not afford for US Unemployment to go up again, if the Congressional Budget Office was right with its prediction that US unemployment will go up to 9% by November then the Oval is toast, that simple, the Oval will be dreading each month's stats , up and the Oval has a tough fight, down then its got a message, not a great message but least a clear message, don't change horses mid stream, its a very old political message, but you deal with what you have, that is politics 101.

Obama vs. Romney - The Polls

Lets have a break from the economic collapse in the EU, lets have a look at the 2012 race in the US.

Tracking Polls:

Rasmussen Reports ( likely voters ): Reports today in its tracking poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 47% to 44%, a 3% lead.

Gallup ( registered voters ): Reports today in its tracking poll that President Obama and Governor Romney are tied at 46%.

Lets Get Real:

One can postulate that both Campaign will not be unhappy with today's tracking result, neither is down enough to cause panic, both are about tied. The negative for both Campaigns is that neither has defined the other so far. The Romney Campaign has failed to define POTUS as a tax and spend liberal. While the Oval has failed to define Governor Romney as a ruthless businessman who does not understand main street. It can be argued that both Campaigns are waiting for the US Supreme Court to rule on ObamaCare, then one would expect the Campaigns to hit a higher gear. One has to be impressed with the Court, they have not leaked so far, they are doing the right thing, but a tease would be nice, its the waiting that is getting boring.

The Future for Syriza - Greek Election Result

Guardian Live - Greece: Reports the following in its 8.09pm post, " ..Syriza may be planning to mount a strong opposition rather than wait to see if New Democracy can form a coalition government. Even if it fails. ".

Lets Get Real:

In pure political terms it is the right thing for Syriza to do, why get the blame in a Coalition Government when you can wait in till the next General Election, and that could be in under a year and then win outright at that election. The ND will find it hard to get other Greek Parties to come on board, the EU might be relaxed about timings of the austerity deal but not the deal itself, the Germans have made that clear. This Greek crisis is not over folks, nothing is ever that simple with the Greeks. The Markets should be steady over the next week, it will be interesting to see the bond rates of Spain and Italy, this election could bring them down for a time, thus less pressure on political leaders, lets see folks,

Germany and Greece

Telegraph Live Greece: Reports in its 7.17pm post the the German Finance Minister, Guido Westerwelle has stated that the core of the deal between Greece and the EU can not be change.

Lets Get Real:

This win by ND might just delay the day the Greece has to leave the Euro, from Greece it is reported that the win by ND was down to older voters, as the Sunday Times reported today Greece has massive youth unemployment, thus one can see a violent reaction when the Government follows through with the agreed deal between Greece and the EU/IMF/ECB. Also it has to be asked how long with the ND government last, if it can not get other Greek Parties to come on board, it will take a massive hit when its cuts the welfare state of Greece and starts to sell off the assets of Greece. The Unions have done a good job of blocking these policies, ND needs some left wing cover for its Government to last, who will take this risky offer, interesting days ahead in Greece folks.

Greek Election Result

BBC News - Greece Live: Reports on the result of the Greek General Election, New Democracy gained 29.5%, Syriza 27.1% and Pasok 12.3%.

Lets Get Real:

It seems from reports from Greece that New Democracy wants the other Parties to form a National Government, the reply seems a big NO, the new radical left wing Party Syriza wants to be the official Opposition, while the old mainstream left wing Party Pasok will also not go in to Government, but will support ND in the Greek Parliament. In other words ND will push through the harsh austerity measures and will get destroyed in the next General Election. The Syriza Party will get none of the blame but all the benefit, while the Pasok Party will lick its self inflicted wounds. That is democracy folks.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the name of the UK Soldier that was killed on Friday in Afghanistan, the Soldier was " Corporal Alex Guy, of the 1st Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment ". Our thoughts are with the family of Corporal Guy.

Have the Greeks Blinked ?

BBC News:Reports that private opinion polls Greece suggest that the anti austerity Parties are losing the support of the Greek voters.

Lets Get Real:

It seems that the Greeks might have blinked, there are no official polls because as the article notes its illegal to do polls two weeks before an election. This would give the EU some space, the Greeks would have to understand at its core there would be no new deal on its previous austerity deal, there might be some change on the time of the deal but that is all, the Greeks have to understand if they vote for the austerity parties they are voting for harsh and tough austerity. NO DEAL NO MONEY.

The Battles of the Message - US 2012 Race

Guardian: Reports the following on the Obama Re-Elect Campaign, “ ..he is bleeding support in important constituencies……the Democratic camp is showing signs of floundering. ”.

Lets Get Real:

The real signs that Democrats are worried will come if those running down the ticket in November decide that having Obama around to Campaign with them is a bad idea, start to look how many Democrats running for Congress appear with the President, if they decide they need root canal on the day that the President arrives then the Oval is in trouble. Its early folks, the voters have a few months of this Campaign, there will be up and downs for both Obama and Romney. The President can not afford another political gaffe along the lines that the private sector is doing fine, thus the handlers of the Oval will have to keep POTUS on message, the problem is that the message is not working, the voters want to hear what Obama will do in a 2nd term, thus far not a lot. The Oval needs a message, and it should keep to that message, politics 101 folks.

France and Italy = Bailout ?

Telegraph: Reports that the former Labour PM Gordon Brown has stated that Italy and France might need a bailout.

Lets Get Real:

This blog does not have a lot of time for Gordon Brown, that goes for the Labour Party and the UK, but and there is always a BUT, when it comes to his finical outlook one has to say even if it is not popular he did one great service to the UK, he placed a block on Tony Blair going in to the Euro. Also his management of the financial crisis in 2008 was excellent, that was Gordon Brown at his best, that didn’t happen much but it did happen. This warning by Mr Brown should be taken seriously, President Hollande has made political promises that do not match the reality of the French economy, he has reversed the pension reform of the last conservative government and is promising to spend on the public sector, thus one can see a future bailout, if Greece goes then Italy could get hit due to its banks holding Greek debt. It is a pity that Brown does not play well with others, there could have been a role for him in this crisis .

49% Job Disapproval for POTUS - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its daily tracking poll on the job performance of President Obama, today POTUS has a 44% Approval rating, while 49% of US Adults Disapprove of the Obama record.

Lets Get Real:

It seems if you look at likely, registered and adult voters that POTUS is on 45%, thus folks expect a very nasty campaign from the Chicago Re-Elect Committee, they can not afford for the election to be about President Obama, they will lose badly if that is the result. Thus the Romney Campaign has to hit the Obama Camp hard and often, 24/7 folks. The Romney Camp has to define Obama as another Carter, but worse, lets hope the Republicans have their eye open folks, the last Campaign standing wins. That is how they win in Chicago folks. You have to respect that kind of nasty and hard campaign, they win.

Romney vs. Obama - The Polls

Rasmussen Reports ( Likely Voters ):Reports in its daily tracking poll on this Friday that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 47% to 45%.

Gallup ( Registered Voters ):Reports in its daily tracking poll on this Friday that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 46% to 45%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks still a close race, with Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead. Neither Candidate has defined the other so far, the Obama Campaign has failed to show that Romney is a out of touch rich Republican who does not understand main street, while the Romney Camp has failed to define POTUS as a out of touch tax and spend liberal. The next shoe to drop will be the decision by the US Supreme Court when it comes to ObamaCare. This might better define the Candidates, either way. Think folks a couple of months of political polls, what could be better for a political geek.

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that a UK Soldier was killed on Friday in Afghanistan, the Soldier was from the " 1st Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment ". Thus since 2001 the UK as lost 419 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 379 in combat/hostile action, while 40 have died due to illness, accidents or other incidents.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the name of the UK Soldier that was killed on Wednesday in Afghanistan, the Soldier was " Lance Corporal James Ashworth from the 1st Battalion Grenadier Guards ". Our thoughts are with the family of Lance Corporal Ashworth.

Obama's jobs failure - Romney TV Advert

Lets Get Real:

This is a good negative advert, it keeps to the facts, FACTS that counter the Obama advert, as the advert notes, there are over 23 million Americans seeking work, that unemployment has been over 8% for 40 months. Good people are losing their homes. The President does not get that fact, its the private sector that make jobs, there is a difference, the public sector does not make wealth, without the private sector there would be no public sector.

Romney Economic Record= Failure, Obama TV Advert

Lets Get Real:

This would be a great negative advert against Governor Romney if the Obama record was not worse, after three and half years, trillions of debt and US unemployment going up. The Oval must think people are thick, if you have a disaster for a domestic record then you should stress the future, still waiting for what a 2nd Obama term would be about, the voter wants to a road map for the future, thus far its all how bad Romney is, that is not going to be enough folks. The Oval is heading for defeat if this is the kind of rubbish it thinks works.

Spanish Bonds = 7%

Guardian Live - Euro: Reports in its 9.53am post that Spanish Bonds have crossed the 7% Mark.

Lets Get Real:

If Spanish Bonds stay at 7% folks then the Spanish Government will have to ask for a major bailout, the 7% mark is seen as the cliff by the markets, it would cost to much for Spain to borrow. This was the fate of the other PIIGS, they were forced to accept a bailout, the new Conservative Government in Spain is lucky, it has just gotten elected, thus has a few years before the next election. Interesting day ahead folks.

Spanish Bonds - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph Live - Euro: Reports in its 8.15am post that Spanish Bonds have risen to 6.9%.

Lets Get Real:

One can assume that either the cost for the Spanish Government to borrow on the Market will past 7% or the market will revise down the cost of Spanish Bonds. If Spain has to pay 7% on its bonds then it will have to go back to the EU/IMF/ECB and ask for a major bailout, for the debts of the Spanish Government and for the local governments in Spain. If this does happen then Italy will be next folks, as stated Italy is to big to fail, thus the UK might have to borrow money to Italy through the IMF and the EU. It is a pity that it is illegal to do political polls in Greece two weeks before an election, the entire world will be watching Athens on Sunday. The EU and the Markets are waiting to see how the Greeks vote, in our out of the Euro, an election with no clear winner would be a disaster folks.

Spanish Crisis - Eurozone Crisis

BBC News: Reports on more bad news for the Spanish Government, the cost of Spanish bonds has risen again, it is now 6.854% a record, while the Credit Agency Moody's has downgraded the Spanish credit rating to just above junk status.

Lets Get Real:

It seems the 100 billion euro bailout of Spanish Banks has not worked folks, it looks like Spain will have to go back to the EU and ask for the Spanish State to be bailed out. Any Government bailout would have to come with tight strings, the German tax payer has reached their limit with Greece. The question how will this affect Italy, the Italian State has a 2 trillion debt problem. Even the EU would have problems in covering that, there would be no money left in the bank. If Italy is about to ask for a bailout then the UK will have to give money, this would not be popular, but the lack of a united front by the EU could lead to the destruction of the Euro and of the EU. There are crisis days ahead folks, Spain, Italy and then Greece, Athens is the cliff folks, lets see how the Greek voters vote.

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that a UK Soldier has been killed in Afghanistan, the Soldier was from the " 1st Battalion Grenadier Guards ". Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 418 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 378 in combat/hostile action, while 40 have died due to illness, accidents or other incidents.

The Political Horrors of Greece - Euro Crisis

Guardian: Reports the following from Greece, " the far-right Golden Dawn has ratcheted up the rhetoric by threatening to remove immigrants and their children from hospitals and kindergartens. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Greek people are saner and better that to support these extreme Parties on the right and left, yes the mainstream Political Parties have let the Greek people down, but does Greece want to see innocent children thrown out on the street from hospitals and schools, the Greeks suffered in World War Two under German occupation, do they want to gain a image that is close to Nazi Germany. At least if Greece is still in the Euro it can do a deal later, for now it has to take the hard choice and vote for the mainstream Parties, that is the only way for Greece to face itself with honour in the mirror, the mirror can show honour or not, it is the choice of the the Greek people what face they show to the world.

Capital Controls for Greece - Euro Crisis

Daily Mail: Reports that the EU is considering plans for capital controls on Greeks taking money out of Greece also freezing the right of Greeks to travel within the EU.

Lets Get Real:

This is the nightmare result for the EU folks, the left wing anti austerity Parties form the next Greek Government and demand that Greece be treated the same as Spain, in other words never ending bailouts without any strings. The election on Sunday in Greece will decide the fate of Greece in the Euro and the fate of the Euro itself. One can assume that the Greek voters will not be impressed by the fact that the Spanish have gotten a 100 billion euros without any strings, they might think its safe to vote for the left wing Parties base on the idea that France and Germany are bluffing. The Greeks have to understand this is not a bluff, if the Greeks don't keep to the agreed austerity deal then they are out of the Euro, that simple and brutal. The Greeks will be on their own, the EU has to worry about Spain needing a State bailout, on top of that Italy with its 2 trillion debt just might sink the euro. Thus if your in Greece please understand you have only one choice, not great, bad in many respects, Greece has to support the austerity parties or face the results. It can be cold out there, no EU or Euro cover, time for Athens to take the horrible medicine, there is no other choice.

US vs. Russia - Syria

Telegraph: Reports that the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has accused the Putin Regime of laying to the US when it comes to its role in Syria.

Lets Get Real:

Thus if the Russians are laying what is the US going to do, the answer folks, a big fat nothing. In the Oval you have President Obama who thinks his rhetoric is reality, thus his restart relationship is more important than the thousands people killed in Syria. It seems the lack of action by Bill Clinton in Bosnia and Africa in the 1990s did not get as far as Chicago, while women and children are being killed in Syria the Oval does nothing, it wants to keep its relationship with Russia rather help the innocent. This is why President Obama is failure on the domestic and international front, he has allowed the belief in his own brain power to obscure the real world. If a regional war does break out one can place part of the blame at the door of the Oval. One has to wonder did Secretary Clinton clear her remarks with the Oval, will she regret not running against President Obama in 2012, it could be that Bill Clinton was right, that Obama lacks the skill to be a President. Lets see if the Oval can get off the dime and do something to save the people of Syria, this blog is not holding its breath.

Syria in Civil War - UN

BBC News: Reports that the head of the UN’s peacekeeping operations has stated that Syria is in a state of Civil War.

Lets Get Real:

This is hardly breaking news folks, Syria has been in a low level Civil War for months, what is worrying is the statement by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Syria’s ally Russia is now going to give the Assad Regime attack helicopters. This low level Civil War could go regional, it would not take much for Turkey to get dragged in to the Civil War. Lets recall Turkey is member of NATO. The Assad Regime has two Aces up its sleeve, the support at the UN of Russia, the Putin Regime wants Russia back as a regional super power after the fall of the USSR. Thus it should be noted that Syria was a close ally of the USSR during the Cold War, also Russia has a warm water port in Syria, it does not want to see another Libya. Also the Tehran Regime can not afford to lose Syria, it allows it to place pressure on Israel, thus Assad will get financial and military support from Iran. The Obama Administration does not want Iran to go nuclear, so its has major problems with Syria and Iran. Just before the Presidential election November POTUS can not afford for the Syrian Civil War to go regional, also he does not want Israel to strike Iran due to its nuclear ambitions. The Republicans will use the failure to act in Syria and the lack of getting to Russians to back off to show that the Obama restart with Russia has failed, this means that POTUS who saw foreign policy as a net plus of his term is looking at domestic failure and foreign policy disaster, one has to say Obama is fast becoming another Carter Mark 11.

Leaks and National Security

The Hill: Reports that the 2008 Republican Nominee and War Hero Senator McCain failed to get the US Senate to approve an independent investigation in the leaks that POTUS has a kill list for terrorists and that the US and Israel have placed computer viruses in the Iran nuclear plants.

Lets Get Real:

The Romney Campaign should go hard on this issue folks, national security was suppose to be a plus for the Oval, this could destroy that shield. This does recall the last two seasons of the hit TV show the West Wing, when there was a national security leak from the White House, very close to the Oval. The Democrats on the Hill must be hopping that fiction is not becoming fact. Who in the Obama White House will be the new Toby ( the Chief Speech Writer for the West Wing President ). The Republicans should hit the Democrats hard on Obama's comments that the private sector is doing fine and the refusal of Dems on the Hill to appoint an Independent Investigation. This will run and run folks, what are the Dems hiding, and when didn't the Oval know.

Ronald Reagan and the Modern Republican Party

The New York Times: A interesting debate on IF Ronald Reagan was around today would he get the Republican Nomination.

Lets Get Real:

It is simple folks, there are few Presidents you would walk in to hell and back for, Reagan is one of them, next would be President Kennedy. By their rhetoric they inspired, Kennedy with his call for action for a new 60s generation and Reagan calling the USSR an Evil Empire, they both believed in tax cuts and a strong defence, they both had a fondness for using the CIA, in the Kennedy case it was Cuba, in the Reagan case it was supporting the Contra Freedom Fighters. The real dream fight would have been a Reagan vs. Kennedy fight, both at the height of their powers, that would have been a fight to blog on folks, that would have been a real privilege, Those kind of leaders don't come around that often folks.

Greek Election - Euro Crisis

Telegraph Live - Greece: Reports in its 6.51pm post that Alexis Tsipras, the leader of Syriza the left wing anti austerity Party has stated that the previous austerity deal will be " HISTORY " after the 2nd Greek Election on Sunday.

Lets Get Real:

The bailout of the Spanish banks with no strings could be the steak through the heart of the pro austerity Parties in Greece, how can they ask the Greek voters to suffer if the EU has not asked the same of Spain. Of course the new Conservative Government of Spain has already started tough austerity measures but that will be hard to explain to the Greek voters. Thus by preventing a Spanish banking collapse so far the EU just might have killed off Greece as part of the Euro. The EU will be holding its breath on Sunday folks, what path with Greece follow, in our out of the Euro?.

Spanish and Italian Woes!! - Euro Crisis

BBC News: Reports on a second bad day for Spanish and Italian 10 Year bonds, today the cost of Spain borrowing rose to 6.81%, while Italy saw its bonds raise to 6.28%.

Lets Get Real:

It is like watching a slow moving car crash folks, the 100 billion euros bailout for the Spanish Banks only bought a few hours of rest to the Markets, as the article notes the devil is in the details, there are now questions who gets paid back first, the bond holders or the lenders to Spain. If Spain wants to return to the Markets it cant if it can not promise that bond holders will get their money back, yes another EU nightmare. Also there is always the Greeks, the Greek voter must be thinking, hold on how come Spain gets a bailout without any conditions, while the old poor people of Greece have to search for food from bins on the streets. Thus by saving the Spanish the EU might have forced Greece out of the Euro, no good deed ever gets by without some punishment folks. Thus if Greece leaves this could force Spain to ask for a State bailout, that could cost three hundred billion euros. If Spain falls then Italy could be next folks, the Italians have a debt of 2 trillion, yes folks jumping off a cliff time. Tense days ahead folks.

Obama and the Private Sector

Lets Get Real:

The Romney Campaign is going hard on President Obama's remarks that the private sector is doing fine. These remarks could define the Obama Presidency, thus own goal by the Oval. The Oval needs to get the President in to Campaign mode, also to keep to the message, its almost politics 101. The bad jobs report, combined with these remarks will drive the Chicago Re- Elect up the wall. This group is ruthless folks, the Romney Campaign has to hit hard and often, it almost has to be 24 hours. The Last Campaign standing wins folks. It is still a long road, Romney has had a few good days, lets hope the Campaign has many good days.