1973 = 2013, Afghanistan = Vietnam - 2nd Term Blues

The White House: Here are some of the extracts from the news today that the US will talk to the Afghan Taliban, " At the same time, we also want to discuss today an important development as it relates to the political and reconciliation pillar of our strategy, which is the opening of a Taliban office in Doha for the purpose of negotiations with the Afghan government in pursuit of reconciliation....So later today in Doha, the Taliban will release a statement that says two things:  First, that they oppose the use of Afghan soil to threaten other countries; and second, that they support an Afghan peace process.  These are two statements which we've long called for and together, they fulfill the requirements for the Taliban to open an office, a political office, in Doha for the purposes of negotiation with the Afghan government...a process that, after 30 years of armed conflict in Afghanistan, will certainly promise to be complex, long and messy, but nonetheless, this is an important first step.....The outcome of this process marks that the Taliban and other insurgent groups meet three end conditions:  First, that they break ties with al Qaeda; that they end the violence; and that they accept Afghanistan’s constitution, including its protections for women and minorities.  Further, recognizing that the opening of the office later today is but one milestone on the path toward peace, we call on the Afghan government and the Taliban to begin direct negotiations soon....I would add is that as we pursue this path to peace with this important first step today, our core goal in Afghanistan is always primary, and that is to defeat al Qaeda and ensure that Afghanistan can never again be a safe haven for international terrorism.  While the peace process is just beginning in earnest today with the opening of the Doha office, our troops continue to serve alongside Afghan troops in the mission in Afghanistan.  We plan to continue our robust support to the Afghan security forces, including through our commitments we made at the NATO Summit in Chicago just a year ago....But neither do we plan to let up in our fight against international terrorism in Afghanistan, or in our support to Afghan forces who, as my colleague mentioned, today in Kabul, assumed the lead for operations throughout the country.  Our military and diplomatic efforts continue to be mutually reinforcing. ....".

Lets Get Real:

All very noble aims folks, just one FACT, the US and the UK has lost in Afghanistan, how long will the US keep a force there, they will come under attack the moment the majority of US forces are gone, the Taliban can say what they like, THEY LIE, it can be postulated that that Afghanistan will return to state of Civil War within six months to a year, the US as did the British Empire will uses military bases in Pakistan to keep an eye on the Taliban, and send in the drones if they see trouble.   The Taliban can just wait folks, invaders from Alexander to Obama can NEVER beat the clock when it comes to Afghanistan.  As blog does feel sorry for the women of Afghanistan, their lives will be hell once the Taliban retake Kabul and take control of Afghanistan, the War in Afghanistan will be like the Korean War, as time goes by the forgotten war, the War with no clear victory, it will be seen as a mistake, much like Vietnam and Iraq, and those that died and carry the costs of the War will have died and suffered for nothing, that is the sad part folks, it was ALL FOR NOTHING at the end of the day. 

Are the Taliban the new North Vietnam ? - Afghanistan Update

BBC News: Reports that the Obama White House is to open direct talks with the Taliban of Afghanistan, the articles notes there are conditions, " the talks are on condition that the Taliban renounce violence, break ties with al-Qaeda and respect the Afghan constitution .. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is a fig leaf folks, the Western Allies are running out of Afghanistan in 2014, the US is keeping a small force IN Country to go after Al Qaeda, lets see how long the US stays, a small force will be a tempting target for Al Qaeda and the Taliban.   Lets be brutal here folks, the Taliban can have Afghanistan, they are welcome to it, as long as they understand, should they allow Al Qaeda back in to their former safe heavens the West from bases in Pakistan will use drones to take out any threat.   As in 1973 when the US agreed to leave South Vietnam its only a  matter of time before the Taliban overthrow the Afghan Government and retake Kabul, one does feel sorry for the women in Afghanistan, will will not leave them with much after so many promises of support, it can be argued that the Taliban are the modern North Vietnam/Vietcong, they outlasted another power, the British Empire had to many bloody shirts from Afghanistan, the War in Afghanistan helped bring down the USSR, the US and Allied presence today shows the limit of modern power.   History repeats itself, Vietnam, Afghanistan, one wishes modern leaders had read history at University.    The voters in the US and UK want out of Afghanistan, the War has been to long, and the cost to high, and for what, sand that falls through your hand. 

POTUS at the G8 - 2nd Term Blues

Telegraph: Reports on the visit of President Obama to Northern Ireland for the G8, the article notes the following, " Barack Obama's current trip suggests he is not dazzling foreign audiences like he used to.. ".

Lets Get Real:

This blog gave up listening to President Obama a long time ago, at the end of the day it is about HIM, the great American President Ronald Reagan was called the Great Communicator, the Gipper stated that it was not who gave the message but the message itself.  The Gipper spoke of the US as a Shinning City on a Hill, that the US should have a small government, low taxes, and a strong defence, what is the Obama message, how great President Obama is, when Obama leaves office in 2017 his Agenda leaves with him, the idea that Big Government represents what the US wants only has space in the Oval, once President Obama takes that final helicopter on January 20th 2017 the Democrats will run a mile from the Obama Agenda, one article this blog read stated that the Reagan Era was finally over, IT IS NOT, the very expanse of the Oval has made sure that the Reagan message will carry on, Reagan said in his 1st Inaugural  " ..government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem..From time to time we've been tempted to believe that society has become too complex to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people...It is no coincidence that our present troubles parallel and are proportionate to the intervention and intrusion in our lives that result from unnecessary and excessive growth of government. It is time for us to realize that we're too great a nation to limit ourselves to small dreams... "*  The Reagan Era will never end folks because Liberals overreach, as people want to be free, that was the greatness of Reagan folks, he understood the US, while Obama has no clue. 

* " 

Inaugural Address 

January 20, 1981." 

The Public Papers of President Ronald W. Reagan.  Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. 

A CHANCE with Iran ? - Iran Crisis

The New York Times: Reports on remarks by the new President of Iran Hassan Rowhani, the President Elect stated that " ..he wanted to reduce tensions with the United States but ruled out direct talks between the two estranged nations. ".

Lets Get Real:

The 2nd Obama term could try a twin track, talks with North Korea and Iran, the question do these rouge nations want REAL talks or just good PR for offering talks, one can postulate that North Korea with a new leader, after his warlike moves might be willing to talk, thus the call for talks between the NK and the US.  When it comes to Iran, it is a different, the power is held by the religions leaders, they run Iran's nuclear sites, they control Iran sending Revolutionary Guards to Syria, the religious elite are not fools, they know that the majority of the population was born after the 1979 revolution, they want more freedom, they want to be more Western, if Iran had more freedom the religious leaders would no longer have power and could be hanged from the nearest tree, thus they will allow Mr Rowhani the PR of power but they understand what happened to Gaddafi when he gave up his power in the shape of WMD, a sharp metal object in his neither regions, thus Iran will go nuclear folks, this gives Israel a few months to make its mind up, does it trust Obama, can it trust its security to a leader who stated red lines in Syria and only acted when it might be to late, would the Oval really take out Iran if Tehran wiped out Israel, its a matter of trust folks.   This election is about smoking mirrors folks, nothing has changed, just the PR.  

Obama FALLS in CNN Poll - 2nd Term Blues

CNN - Politics: Reports on a new CNN/ORC Poll that finds that President Obama has a 45%  job approval rating, while 54% disapprove of the Oval performance. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks the political hits of the scandals are starting to have an effect, this really hurts the Oval on the Hill, the major bill  that the Oval is pushing is Immigration reform, if the poll numbers of the Oval are in the tank, those in the House and Senate might think its better to oppose the Oval, also lets recall it could get worse folks, ObamaCare comes in to effect at the end of the year, thus many US voters might find that the IRS starts to charge them if they do not have the right kind of healthcare insurance, that is going to go down well, the Oval promised that if people had heath care they were happy with they could keep it, well its cheaper for employers to pay the penalty than offer health care, thus millions of Americans are finding that employers are cutting hours as to avoid offering healthcare, also the States are being very slow to offer the internal markets for ObamaCare, this leaves it to the Federal Government, in other words its a train wreck as a Democratic Senator called the move to ObamaCare.   The scandals are not going to go away folks, thus Obama might find that he has the same bad numbers as Bush 43, that would be so ironic and funny folks. 

The UK and the Syrian Rebels - Syrian Update

Guardian: Reports that the UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has stated the following about arming the Syrian rebels, " ..no decision made to arm opposition to President Assad, but insists it can be done in containable way  ".

Lets Get Real:

If the US wants the UK to be part of a solution to the Syrian Civil War the Oval will have to lead, Obama, Cameron and President Hollande of France will have to shame the Conservative backbenchers who oppose arming the Syrian rebels because of Iraq and Afghanistan.   This would place the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party against the Obama Oval and France, that should be enough to force Labour leader Ed Miliband to support the Conservatives, thus the Liberal Democrats will not matter, but for this to work the Oval and President Obama will have to take a major role, the UN gave cover for the UK to take down Gaddafi of Libya, the Russians are not going to give UN cover for any action in Syria, they want to keep their warm water port, thus its real politic time.   Syria is the more complex Bosnia Crisis of the 1990s, but a Assad win could cause a regional disaster, the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey will not go home if Assad wins and thus causing the prospect that the Kingdom of Jordan could fall, Lebanon could return to Civil War and tensions could develop further in Turkey, a NATO member.  Thus folks the Oval can not lead from behind, its far to late for that folks. 

The US and North Korea

BBC News: Reports that the US and South Korea have a given a frosty reply to the call by North Korea for high level talks with the US. 

Lets Get Real: 

This could be a mistake by the US, this blog can see why the frosty reaction, the North Koreans have gone back on their word more times than this blog has had a healthy dinner, the North can not be trusted, but on the other hand they have gotten back in to their box and the rhetoric has been less warlike, the Oval could sent Secretary Kerry to see what they want, lets face it the US talked to the USSR and China whose leaders had millions of deaths on their hands, Stalin being the classic example, lets see if this latest call is just a trick, the Oval might as well give it a try, the North is a nuclear armed power, the US and its Allies are not going to bomb them, so might as well talk, that the point of not allowing Iran to get the bomb folks.   As the Gipper stated, Trust but Verify.