Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Italy and the EU - Eurozone Crisis

Guardian: Reports that the Italian Government is trying to come up with an austerity package that get approved by the Coalition Government, the EU has not helped by stating the following, “ saying the aim was not to humiliate Italy or punish it. ”. Folks can you think of a time when a modern EU Country has seen its PM given a dressing down by Germany and France and sent home like a naughty schoolboy to redo his homework, the French and Germans don’t trust the Italian PM to follow through with any agreement, lets face it PM Berlusconi has many political and legal reason to stay in power, thus when it comes to the crunch, it might be his political life that is more important than the Euro, why should the PM cut his base to keep French President happy or the Germans for that matter, it might be in his interest to bluff them, make them stop buying Italian bonds, then see the Euro and the EU go over a cliff. Then Italy can default and restart, otherwise its must more debt and being owned by the European Central Bank.

Germany, Italy NO to Deal - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that both Germany and Italy have raised objections to the proposed Eurozone Crisis deal, the Germans don’t want the ECB to buy bonds and Italy does not want austerity as proposed by the Germany and France. This is a train wreck folks, the small matter of domestic politics is coming in to play, the Italian PM is fighting for his political life, the Germans don’t want to risk another Weimar Germany. As the article notes if the Germans wobble the IMF might come in, that would mean that the UK taxpayer would pay for the Euro, that would go down like a lead balloon in the UK and cause more problem for Coalition PM David Cameron, thus the Euro might sink the EU and a long list of EU Governments. What ever solution the UK is going to have to gets its wallet out, Lady Thatcher would have gotten her handbag out by this time, with a brick in it, to make her point to the EU leaders.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Italy in the Spotlight - Eurozone Crisis

Guardian Live: Reports that EU is waiting for an economic plan from the Italian Government that will have cuts and get Italy moving on the economic front. The EU will be waiting forever folks if they think that PM Silvio Berlusconi is going to do anything that is a threat to his base of power, the Italian Government is a Coalition Government, as with the Lib Dems in the UK the power of movement by Berlusconi is limited, as the article notes his allies have vetoed reforming the retirement age in Italy, also lets be honest here folks, the Italian State is owned by the European Central Bank, if the ECB says jump the Italians have to say how hi Sir, the dressing down of Italy by Germany and France has shown how weak the Berlusconi Government is on the political and economic front, if Italy goes under then you can forget the Euro, the major aim will be keeping the EU going, its that serious folks. In other words EU cant not push Italy to far, what if they decide to default for their own well being, that would be disaster in the short term for Rome but a end event for the EU. Thus Greece might be a sideshow folks, it could be that Rome is the new crisis centre, there are limits to how much the German taxpayer is willing to fork out folks, could Italy destroy the EU?.

George Osborne - Euro HERO ?

Telegraph Live: Reports that the Coalition UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is getting praise for keeping the EU finance ministers in talks on Sunday. This will keep the Labour Party quite, the right wing Conservative backbench MPs will not be happy, Mr Osborne can forget becoming the next Conservative Leader. At the end of the day it will take the UK at the tiller, as long as it does not cost the UK taxpayer any more money, a good days work by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Big Plan NO Details - Eurozone Crisis

BBC News: Reports that Finance Ministers in meeting set for Wednesday before the EU leaders meeting has been cancelled till after the leaders meeting. Thus politicians will come out with a BIG PLAN, that’s the hope but no details, the devil is always in the detail folks, recall the Gordon Brown Budgets, always look good but then a dark cloud was always in the details. The Stock Markets have not reacted well, then have gone on a dive, but why they went up is a bit of mystery. Lets see if the EU meeting on Wednesday is all smoke but no substance, the markets will tank if that is the case folks.

Monday, October 24, 2011

42% Approval for POTUS - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its daily poll on the job performance of President Obama, today the Oval is down to 42% Approval, while 50% of Average US voters Disapprove of the Obama record. Just after the death of Colonel Gaddafi the Oval was up to 44% but the poll raise didn’t last long, after the death of OBL the Obama polls rose but the bleak economic news has kept POTUS under 50% for months now, the Chicago re-election committee must be worried that that if unemployment stays at around 9% the US voter will write Obama off, and start to listen to the economic solutions of either Governor Romney or Cain, the idea that the Obama could use the 2004 playbook of Bush 43 is rubbish, Obama has made it a theme of his Presidency that he is not Bush 43, to change in to Bush 43 at the last minute is up there with thinking that the Titanic could not sink or the Democrats view that Reagan would be easy to beat in 1980, just out there folks. But the usual warning folks, its early, lets see if the Oval can change the course of the U.S.S Obama, it would be a political miracle if Obama can get a second term folks.

Conservative Revolt - EU Crisis

BBC News: Reports on the revolt by Conservative backbench MPs on the demand for a EU Referendum, around 80 Conservative MPs defied the PM in supporting a EU vote. The left wing media will see this a snub for the PM David Cameron, they are missing a point, the UK Government is a Coalition Government, also the Opposition supported the Government in opposing a Referendum vote. Thus the vote was 483 against the vote, while 111 voted for a referendum, there will be Labour MPs who broke a three line whip to oppose their own leadership. This vote in a ironic way will help PM Cameron in the EU, he will have to stand firm, he will have tell his fellow EU leaders, “ look I can only go so far, my Party wont wear any weakness on my part etc, ”, thus the PM can call for more powers to be returned to the House of Commons, also the PM will have to be tough with the Lib Dems, he will have to call their bluff, will they really walk out of the Coalition if the Cameron takes a tough stand over the EU, if a General Election was called tomorrow the Lib Dems would be toast, thus Cameron should call their bluff, politics is a ruthless game, time for Cameron to be tough with EU and the Lib Dems.