Syrian Update - PT2

Guardian: Reports the following from Syria, " Rebels say.......that Assad's forces are due to launch a concerted offensive in the capital. ".

Lets Get Real:

As long as the Assad Regime controls Damascus and the airport it will remain in power, as noted the military support from Iran will allow the Regime to have TIME, its ally Iran knows if it loses Assad it influence in the region will be hit, also it can not cause problems for Israel through using its terrorist network in Lebanon.   Thus do the Syrian rebels need air cover from the the US and the UK and was the Western reaction in Libya, the simple answer is YES, the question should the West take such action is another matter, who will replace the regime in Damascus, will they be an ally or a enemy, how much REAL influence will the West have over a new Government, look at how powerless the West has been with the new Egyptian Government.   Thus folks, do you contain the killing in Syria, in other words keep the sides at the same level, if they are killing each other they are not causing problems for the region or do you take action.   The RIGHT answer is you give air cover to the rebels and take your chances with a new government,  at the end of the day innocent people are being killed, you have to save them, or what is the point, might sound bit on the idealist side but sometimes you have to get on that donkey and charge at windmills. 

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports from Syrian rebels of heavy fighting in the Eastern area of Damascus the Capital of Syria. 

Lets Get Real:

This Syrian Civil War can not be allowed to go forever, already Turkey and Israel have have been hit by stray rockets,  as both Turkey and Israel are allies of the US it would take a mistake or a Assad Regime attempt to drag the US in to the Civil War for the Civil War to create a regional War.  If the Assad Regime thinks it is going to lose it might use chemical weapons or give WMDs to its terrorists allies in Lebanon, thus a threat to Israel.   Even the Oval has made it clear that any movement of chemical weapons would be a red line for the Oval and even more so for Israel.    Thus the Oval and the West has to make sure that the Syrian Civil War keeps its internal make up, also that Iran can not keep the Assad Regime in power through its use of Iraqi airspace.    Lets see how much pressure that the Oval can place on Iraq, it has no military presence in Iraq, thus limited influence with Baghdad who has to worry about its powerful neighbour Iran.   This Syrian Civil War and its aftermath could define a 2nd Obama term folks. 

The Iraq Channel for Syria and Iran

The New York Times: Reports on the military support for the Assad Regime in Syria from Iran, the Tehran Regime is using Iraqi airspace, the article notes the following on these supply missions, " ..route for weapons, including rockets, antitank missiles, rocket-propelled grenade and mortars. ".

Lets Get Real:

The question faced by the Oval is, do they give military support to the Syrian rebels, can they afford not to support the rebels, if as expected the Assad regime falls and the rebels take over with support from extreme Islamic supporters will they new regime be a friend of the US or a new threat to the US interests in the Middle East and Israel.   There have been reports that the rebels feel that the US has not given enough military support, communication support YES, and general supplies YES but no actual hardware, the hardware that the rebels have gotten have come from captured Syrian supplies and military support from the Gulf States, who have no time for Assad.   As to Iraq, well this problem is down to 1st Obama Term, they failed to get a military agreement with the Iraqi Government, the Oval let VP Biden lead the talks, thus bound to fail.  The Iraqi Government has its own internal problems, it does not need Tehran to get upset with them and cause more grief in Iraq.  If the US still had a presence it could check these planes form Iran but it does not, it almost has to beg the Iraqi Government to do its job.    As the article notes the following on the relationship between Baghdad and Tehran, " There is evidence of collusion between Iranian and Iraqi officials on the inspections, according to American intelligence assessments. ".  Thus next year folks the Middle East could get very hot, the Syrian Civil War might be reaching a tipping point, the attempt by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to make Egypt the next Iran could cause internal unrest, while Israel will be considering its options, it might decide to strike Iran without telling the Oval, that would not be new for Israel.   The 2nd Obama term folks might be more fraught than the Oval expects, the Middle East has way of doing what it wants not what the Oval wants or expects, that is international politics folks.

The US Financial Cliff and POTUS

CNN - Politics: Has a advice piece from a old White House hand David Gergen  to the Obama Oval, the article notes the following, " ..But frankly, it is the president and the Democrats who are over-playing their hands now. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval is no LBJ, Reagan or Clinton, in POTUS you have a President who thinks his own statements are reality, rather than talking to Congressional leaders he is on the Campaign trail again, the problem being those that attend his events are never going to vote Republican anyway, in other words we have a President who wants to hear the love but does not want to deal with the in house power game that is Washington D.C.   The Democrats in the House and more so in the Senate must get the fact that the Oval just cares about the Oval, Obama does not care that there are Mid term elections in 2014 and that the Democrats need a nominee in 2016, and it will not be Vice - President Biden.  The Oval needs a good start for 2013, thus the Republicans should just say NO, let the planned tax hikes and welfare cuts come along, they have two years to run again, Obama does not matter, its harsh folks but the Oval does not have a horse in the 2016 race, thus has less power than it might think, Presidents of the US are powerful then they are NOT, it comes to them all folks, Obama is no different, when someone tells him that he does not matter; would pay to be a fly on the wall for that; the EGO being taken down will be nice to see, what the political gods give they take away, and you cant use the race card on them. 

The Political Demise of Susan Rice ? - Obama 2nd Term

Guardian: Has a profile of the US UN Ambassador Susan Rice and her fight to be the next Secretary of State, the article states the following, " ..But, in the vipers' nest of Washington DC, she has now made enemies. Nor do they seem likely to be placated. ".

Lets Get Real:

It seems even the left wing Guardian is reading the tea leaves on this folks, the Republicans in the Senate have made it clear, even the moderate Republicans that there will be blood on the carpet should the Oval try to get Rice in to State.   IF and it is still a IF the Rice nomination is OVER, who will go to State, the rumour mill has 2004 Democratic Nominee Senator Kerry as the front runner, ADVICE to Oval find someone else, a Kerry run State Department will be run by Kerry, it will be hard for POTUS to get Kerry to do his bidding, a War hero, but also anti Vietnam protest leader, Lt Governor, Senator and 2004 Dem nominee, lets be honest Kerry will be a nightmare, he will think he should be in the Oval.   If this blog was the Oval it would find someone who does not have his or her own political base and will follow the orders of the Oval but is a good thinker, thus can allow the Oval new thoughts and new directions.   Lets see how this plays out folks. 

Republican House vs. POTUS

Telegraph: Reports the following on the talks to prevent the US going over a financial cliff at the end of December, " ..Mr Obama effectively returned to the campaign trail in snowy eastern Pennsylvania to urge Americans to lobby their representatives to pass his plan. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Republican House should the Oval bluff, if Obama will not CUT welfare then let the set cuts come in to action, let the Oval start with a recession, Bush 41 agreed to tax hikes, did it get him re-elected, NO, the voters recall tax hikes, the Oval is not running again, thus the Dems in the House and the Senate will have to defend any tax hikes, they House should play hard ball, the Chicago way, NOT PASS anything in less the Oval agrees to its plan, just say NO.  It was good message in the 80s for those thinking of taking drugs, well its a good message for a Oval addicted to spending. I am sure the White House Staff wont mind taking coach on commercial airlines, the Obamas can go business class as they do not like the rich and the benefits of making money.  The Democrats have one flaw in their political strategy, the Oval is a political dodo within six months, all the candidates will start to visit Iowa for 2016, also the 2014 Mid Terms start now, thus folks, President Obama does not matter, lets him take the US in to recession, an Obama Recession looks good on a sticker, also the tax raised can go to fix the US debt.   REPUBLICANS JUST SAY NO. 

Israel vs. Palestinians

BBC News: Reports that the Israeli Government has given the green light for the building of three thousand houses in the East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks we have to face the FACT that whatever the UN General Assembly decides there is NEVER going to be a real Palestinian State, not that in the future a fiction might be created, a State that does not control its own border, with no viable Army or military force, that is the only way that the Palestinians are going to get a  homeland.  In life there are winners and losers, well LETS BE HONEST, the Palestinians have had lousy leaders for YEARS, the best chance for STATE was in 2000 under the deal developed by President Bill Clinton, the Palestinian leadership walked away.     President Obama in his 2nd term is limited by the election cycle, he has had a fraught relationship with the present Israeli Government and has just managed to prevent an Israeli strike on Iran, that clock is ticking, also Israel has to worry about Hamas in Gaza and the the threat the Syrian Civil War will fall over the border between Israel and Syria.  Thus in internal affairs such as these new houses the Israeli Government is sending a message that Israel in FACT will never agree to a real Palestinian State, and folks why should they, they have fought and won the right for Israel to exist, to winners the spoils.