Conservatives 2% ahead of Labour - Election 2015

BBC News - Politics Live: Reports on the following tweet by Lord Ashcroft, " ICM poll CON 34% LAB 32% LDEM 10% UKIP 11% GRNS 5%" "

Lets Get Real:

As noted in essence we have a tied race, of course polls have known be wrong, they were a disaster in 1992, they had a Labour victory.   This blog has noticed what when asked who they will vote for VOTERS say Conservative in a quite voice, as if they are having a tax audit.  The question that has to be asked, COULD ALL the polls be wrong, this old gut of mine feels there are movements towards either Labour or the Conservative Party getting a majority.   The English will not like the idea that the SNP would control the polices for the English and Welsh but does not include Scotalnd.    The SNP just might have created a reason for the English to vote for a majority Party, if nothing else to stop the SNP.   At least it adds a bit fiz to the election. 

What is it with the UK polls -Election 2015

BBC News: Reports on the neck by neck race of 2015, the article notes the following, " What are we to make of it all? Well, it is certainly a challenge for those who have to provide news and insights during the long election campaign. How many different and interesting ways are there to describe a walrus moving barely one inch? "

Lets Get Real:

If your like me your a political geek, you love elections and polls, but even this political blogger is finding the 2015 General Election quite tedious, the only fun moment was when the UKIP leader had a go at those invited to watch the debate in the opposition debate.   The political parties of yesterday used to have press conferences, now its keeping the public away from the candidates, it has gone very US on us, well with both sides using American wizards at elections that is no surprise, in the US they have attack adverts, they are fun to watch, and do not hold back.   Thus what can we say at the end of the week, well my prediction for a Labour Government is still on course, the polls would have to be wrong as make 1992 poll mess look normal.   Thank goodness there are only two weeks to go, then this blog can start to look the US Presidential race in 2016. 

Conservatives 4% Ahead of Labour - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports " Tories unchanged on 36%, Labour fall two points to 32% and Ukip up two points on 13% in poll conducted after Thursday’s ‘challengers’ TV debate "

Lets Get Real:

This must have caused a heart attack at the left wing Guardian.  They go to great lengths to rubbish this poll, one is almost shocked that they published the article, but then nothing that the left does should come as a surprise.    OF course this is just a snap shot, a  YouGov poll has Labour ahead by 36% to 33% for the Conservatives.     Which one is right will be seen over the next few days, there should be more polls, my Labour prediction is still holding up voter, 

The Parties TIED in the General Election

Telegraph: Reports " Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck on 34 per cent in today's latest YouGov poll. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus even if this was the result of May 7th the Labour Party would be the biggest Party, and the would need the support of the SNP to govern, there is NO WAY the Labour Party can form a government without the support of the SNP.   This as this blog has stated, once Labour is safe around 33% to 35% they are the next govenment.   The SNP leader has made it clear that she will vote for the Labour Gov even if there is no deal, thus Ed Miliband can count on SNP support even if in public he says he does not want them, so Ed Miliband is the next PM, this blog hates one thing, being wrong about a prediction, thus far it is not. 

IS Update - New War on Terror

Guardian: Reports " Iraqi PM warns Isis could become unstoppable as key city threatened...City of Ramadi ‘on verge of falling’ says adviser to Iraqi government  "

Lets Get Real:

It is time for the US and the UK to send in their special forces, at the end of the day the battle will be won on the ground, the Iraqi Army needed the help of Iran and US airplane attacks to get rid of IS from Tikrit, these two Countries in the case of IS are on the same page, but even then there are lines, Iran will not have US giving air support to its forces as they do not want to share victory with the US, while the US while wanting the Tehran Regime to take on IS does not want it to grow more of its power in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.   The backdrop to the fight in Iraq is the nuclear deal between the US and Iran, either its a good deal or President Obama has not read the fine print, the US Congress will read the fine print and see the secret parts of the deal.   The War with IS will take more than three years, thus the next US President will have to deal with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen,  other areas that have not blow up yet, there is enough time for more Crisis points before President Obama leaves Office in 2017. 

The ONLY way for Ed to become PM is through the SNP - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " Nicola calls Ed's bluff: After Labour leader says 'no' to a coalition with the SNP, Sturgeon warns voters will 'never forgive him' if he walks away from chance to kick out the Tories  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the stark choice facing the UK voter, if your vote Labour or SNP you get two for the price of one, you have a weak PM leading a weak Labour government supported and ruled by the SNP.   THINK voter if Ed Miliband would stab his own brother in the back, what chance for you voter, can your trust Ed not to take the SNP deal as to get the keys of No 10. Thus  voter you have only once choice VOTE CONSERVATIVE, or face a return to the weak governments of the 1970s. 

The UK Debate of the Opposition and the viewers - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports in its 10.45am post the following, " The BBC Election Debate 2015 had 4.3 million viewers, a 20.5% share, from 8pm last night, the Guardian reports. "

Lets Get Real:

The viewing figures for the Opposition debate will hardly be a threat to the top 10 shows on a normal week.  It seems the idea of watching the Opposition at play was not a turn on for the viewer, Ed Miliband was orange is face colour but at least he had sharp black suit, and came out well, he didn't fall over and was not eating.  In second we place we have the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, its a pity she represent the SNP, she would have gone far in the other Parties, also she is not up for election in the UK this year.   The UKIP leader, Nigel Farage had a go at the audience, and he was right, they were even more left wing that usual for the BBC, lets recall the BBC had to say sorry after 9/11 when the audience for Question Time attacked the US and not the terrorists.    On the whole good idea for the PM to stay away, why feed the left wing beast.  Also someone who asked a question was not sure if she would even vote, she can drag herself to the TV studio but not to vote, says it all about the bbc selection.