Labour STORM to lead over Conservatives - 2015 Election

Guardian: Reports on the Labour lead in three polls, the article states the following, " A Survation poll for the Mirror put Labour four points ahead, a Panelbase poll six points ahead and a TNS poll four points .. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the neck and neck race has broken in favour of Labour, as this blog has stated its a Labour win.  Thus lets look at the expected Labour Cabinet for Ed Miliband, the Chancellor will be Ed Balls, even if Ed Miliband wanted to appoint his brother he would face an angry Ed Balls and those of the left of the Labour Party, while Douglas Alexander will be the Foreign Secretary.   It is a tradition if not a by law of the Party that the Shadow Cabinet will be the first Cabinet in any Labour Administration.   Of course after that Ed Miliband might be able to appoint his brother when he does a Cabinet reshuffle.   It will be fun watching the old Blair supporters having to support the left wing Miliband.  It can be expected that under a PM Miliband the UK will not play an active role in World Affairs, there is no ground swell of support for Ed Miliband, thus No 10 will want to avoid major problems that show that lack of support.   Labour in power is always fun, the BBC and Guardian types will be happy. 

4% Lead for Labour over the Conservatives - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports in its 5.40p the following post, " A new poll has given Labour a four-point lead over the Conservatives and - for the first time in the campaign to date - respondents said Ed Miliband was doing a better job than the prime minister. The Survation poll for the Daily Mirror sampled 1,111 adults yesterday and today, and the results were weighted. Labour gained two points on last week to reach 35%, while the Conservatives dropped one to 31%. "

Lets Get Real:

As this blog has stated Labour only have to get around 35% to form a majority government or be the biggest Party in the House of Commons.   The objective view of this blog has been clear, its a Labour win on May 7th.  On the subjective side, this blog is a firm Conservative supporter and will post and video blog posts on the general election.   The British public like an underdog, and Ed Miliband in the underdog in PR terms, he would be a nightmare to manage.  While the Prime Minister David Cameron looks like a PM.   Has the authority in his manner as PM, but that is enough to break the maths for the Conservatives, it is simple, it takes less Labour votes to elect a Labour MP, thus the Conservatives face that reality.   Politics is a hard business, there can only be one winner. 

Yemen and Al Qaeda - Yemen Crisis Part 3

The New York Times: Reports on the results of US military support for Saudi Arabia, the article notes the following, " But that effort also has come with consequences, notably the resurgence of the Qaeda affiliate., which has exploited the mayhem exacerbated by the Saudi assault on the Houthis — foes of A.Q.A.P. — to take territory. "

Lets Get Real:

The US has removed its special forces from Yemen due to the fall of the Government, that Government is in effect exile needs Saudi Arabia to take action, the US drone strikes on Al Qaeda has ceased due to the fact that they no longer have a base in Yemen.   The falling of Yemen in to civil war has helped Al Qaeda grow its influence and also gain land as noted above article.   Thus the US has three points to consider when it comes to Yemen, 1, How far can the US push Iran in Yemen before Tehran calls the nuclear deal in to question, 2, How much support will Saudi Arabia need to take out the threat from Iran, 3, While the above two are going on the terror of Al Qaeda grows and becomes even more a threat to the West.    There is no way the US would send troops in to Yemen, to many sides would like to take pot shots at any US forces, thus the Oval on the whole is following the right policy, support without getting burned. 

The THREAT to the Gulf States from Iran - Yemen Crisis Part 2

Telegraph: Reports " Iran sends military ships towards Yemen as fighting intensifies in Aden.."

Lets Get Real:

The West has no interest in using force in Yemen, after Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria and Iraq again to fight the growth of IS, the West it tired of long terms conflict.     Saudi Arabia an ally of the West when it comes to the long term conflict between the West and Iran will have to use its own forces, the US is helping but it worried about the Iran nuclear deal and does not want it linked to other areas.   In this case SA has to send in ground troops and stop the growth and power of Iran through its supported rebels.  The Yemen Civil War is messy and needs a major power to action to keep the balance between the Gulf States and Iran.   Lets see who blinks first. 

Yemen Update - Yemen Crisis

Guardian: Reports " Houthi rebels fight street battles with militias in Yemeni city of Aden  "

Lets Get Real:

It can be postulated that Saudi Arabia sooner or later will have to send in ground forces, the use of fighter planes to take out the Houthi rebels has not worked, the group is supported by Iran and thus every victory for the Houthi is a success for Iran.   The Tehran leadership if the nuclear deal with the US goes through can cheat its way to a nuclear bomb, very much as North Korea did in the 1990s under the Clinton Presidency.  As was pointed out in the Washington Post the same words to sell the North Korean deal  has been used by the Obama Oval.  One can expect an arms race to start within the region once Iran goes nuclear. 

Miliband's fiasco over Non Doms - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " Miliband's crackdown on super-rich unravels after Balls warning emerges that scrapping non-dom rules would cost the UK money  "

Lets Get Real: 

The Ed Miliband speech was ALL political, it will get good press from the elite Guardian and BBC types.   It was shown that the speech was political due to the fact that the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls stated in January that such a move would cost the UK in the long term.  The UK voter has to wake up, Ed Miliband will say any old rubbish to get the approval of the elite left wing.   Thus the policy that started this morning in a Miliband speech has had blowback, if Labour can not connect the dots while in Opposition what hope for them in government.   It was the Conservative Party that made the rules tougher, even the Liberal Democrats do not want to get rid of non - doms, bad policy and bad politics by Labour.  The BBC will love this kind of speech. 

Ed Miliband and Non Doms - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports " Labour has defended its plans to end the non-domicile rule that allows some wealthy UK residents to limit the tax paid on earnings outside the country. "

Lets Get Real: