The US Financial Cliff and Taxes

CNN  - Politics: Reports that Republican House Speaker John Boehner has rejected the idea of tax hikes on the rich.  The new Republican Plan cuts welfare and does not increase tax rates. 

Lets Get Real: 

The Oval has worry about a Obama Recession, the Republicans have to run in two years, Obama in many respects is a political dodo, thus the Republican House has nothing to fear from liberal voters who want tax hikes.  Also should the US go over the financial cliff the Republican House can make the Oval pay for any deal after the event.   As going over the financial cliff, would mean tax hikes and major welfare cuts, thus the liberal left would go bonkers, the tax payer might blame the House at the start but its the Obama Era, he is the President, the buck stops with him.  The Republican House should call the bluff the Oval, the Democrats in the House and Senate should worry that they will have to defend ObamaCare and tax hikes in 2014 and 2016.   The Oval needs this deal or his 2nd term is over before it has started, the Republican House should say NO to tax hikes, and keep to that line.   

The US and Syrian Chemical Weapons - Syrian Crisis PT2

Guardian: Reports on the US reaction should Syrian Regime use chemical weapons on its own people, " The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, who had warned that Washington would take action if Syria used chemical weapons.. ".

Lets Get Real:

As the US has to worry about its close Middle East allies of Israel and Turkey, IF and its a big IF the Assad Regime uses chemical weapons and these weapons hit Israel or Turkey by accident or on purpose as to draw in the US and unite the Syrian people against the West.   It would be Assad calling Obama's bluff, does the Assad Regime think that POTUS does not have the political courage to take action after the disaster that is Libya, if your in Damascus you have to think that Obama might give the green light to drone strikes but taking on Syria is something else, it would take US ground troops, the 2nd Obama term would be over before it started, lets recall that great US President Harry Truman had his poll numbers tank after the War in Korea started.  Also look what happened to Bush 43 after the Iraq War, the US left would go bonkers and Obama's domestic aims would be destroyed should he try to take ground action in Syria, also the Syria Regime has an air force and is supported by Iran.    Thus a no fly zone would not be enough, there would have to be ground troops, do you see Obama putting in ground troops. 

Syria and Chemical Weapons - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following on the Syrian Crisis and the possible use of chemical weapons by the Assad Regime, " The White House issued a stark warning that it feared President Bashar al-Assad might be turning to his arsenal of chemical weapons... ".

Lets Get Real:

Lets hope the Israeli Intelligence Mossad is on the case, they should know before anyone else, one would expect that the CIA and MI6 have agents on the ground in Syria, just checking to make sure the Assad Regime does not cross this red line.   If the Assad Regime is found to be in the process of going to use chemical weapons lets hope the UK's SAS and the US Special Forces are close to Syria to take them out, or even in Syria, but that would be only a theory.  It is clear that Israel should it find that Assad is going to use chemical weapons it will attack, what if the effects come across the border, or Assad gives chemical weapons to his terrorists allies in Gaza or Lebanon.   It can be postulated  that Iran would support Syria in the use of chemical weapons as it would divert Western attention from its own nuclear aims.   This could be a tense Christmas period folks, if the Assad Regime fears it is going down it could use WMDs. 

Good News Day - Royal Baby on the Way

BBC News: Reports that the HRH the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are expecting a baby.

Lets Get Real:

This is fantastic news folks, a great day for the UK, after all the doom and gloom from the domestic and international front this is nice for the Royal Couple and the Country to have something to celebrate, the Throne has now three successors, ALL the petty domestic stuff is just nothing compared to the Royal Succession.  God Save the Queen and the Royal Family. 

Syrian Update - PT2

Guardian: Reports the following from Syria, " Rebels say.......that Assad's forces are due to launch a concerted offensive in the capital. ".

Lets Get Real:

As long as the Assad Regime controls Damascus and the airport it will remain in power, as noted the military support from Iran will allow the Regime to have TIME, its ally Iran knows if it loses Assad it influence in the region will be hit, also it can not cause problems for Israel through using its terrorist network in Lebanon.   Thus do the Syrian rebels need air cover from the the US and the UK and was the Western reaction in Libya, the simple answer is YES, the question should the West take such action is another matter, who will replace the regime in Damascus, will they be an ally or a enemy, how much REAL influence will the West have over a new Government, look at how powerless the West has been with the new Egyptian Government.   Thus folks, do you contain the killing in Syria, in other words keep the sides at the same level, if they are killing each other they are not causing problems for the region or do you take action.   The RIGHT answer is you give air cover to the rebels and take your chances with a new government,  at the end of the day innocent people are being killed, you have to save them, or what is the point, might sound bit on the idealist side but sometimes you have to get on that donkey and charge at windmills. 

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports from Syrian rebels of heavy fighting in the Eastern area of Damascus the Capital of Syria. 

Lets Get Real:

This Syrian Civil War can not be allowed to go forever, already Turkey and Israel have have been hit by stray rockets,  as both Turkey and Israel are allies of the US it would take a mistake or a Assad Regime attempt to drag the US in to the Civil War for the Civil War to create a regional War.  If the Assad Regime thinks it is going to lose it might use chemical weapons or give WMDs to its terrorists allies in Lebanon, thus a threat to Israel.   Even the Oval has made it clear that any movement of chemical weapons would be a red line for the Oval and even more so for Israel.    Thus the Oval and the West has to make sure that the Syrian Civil War keeps its internal make up, also that Iran can not keep the Assad Regime in power through its use of Iraqi airspace.    Lets see how much pressure that the Oval can place on Iraq, it has no military presence in Iraq, thus limited influence with Baghdad who has to worry about its powerful neighbour Iran.   This Syrian Civil War and its aftermath could define a 2nd Obama term folks. 

The Iraq Channel for Syria and Iran

The New York Times: Reports on the military support for the Assad Regime in Syria from Iran, the Tehran Regime is using Iraqi airspace, the article notes the following on these supply missions, " ..route for weapons, including rockets, antitank missiles, rocket-propelled grenade and mortars. ".

Lets Get Real:

The question faced by the Oval is, do they give military support to the Syrian rebels, can they afford not to support the rebels, if as expected the Assad regime falls and the rebels take over with support from extreme Islamic supporters will they new regime be a friend of the US or a new threat to the US interests in the Middle East and Israel.   There have been reports that the rebels feel that the US has not given enough military support, communication support YES, and general supplies YES but no actual hardware, the hardware that the rebels have gotten have come from captured Syrian supplies and military support from the Gulf States, who have no time for Assad.   As to Iraq, well this problem is down to 1st Obama Term, they failed to get a military agreement with the Iraqi Government, the Oval let VP Biden lead the talks, thus bound to fail.  The Iraqi Government has its own internal problems, it does not need Tehran to get upset with them and cause more grief in Iraq.  If the US still had a presence it could check these planes form Iran but it does not, it almost has to beg the Iraqi Government to do its job.    As the article notes the following on the relationship between Baghdad and Tehran, " There is evidence of collusion between Iranian and Iraqi officials on the inspections, according to American intelligence assessments. ".  Thus next year folks the Middle East could get very hot, the Syrian Civil War might be reaching a tipping point, the attempt by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to make Egypt the next Iran could cause internal unrest, while Israel will be considering its options, it might decide to strike Iran without telling the Oval, that would not be new for Israel.   The 2nd Obama term folks might be more fraught than the Oval expects, the Middle East has way of doing what it wants not what the Oval wants or expects, that is international politics folks.