EU calls for decrease in tensions between India and Pakistan - Trump47

BBC News: Reports in its 11.23am post that the EU is calling on India and Pakistan to decrease tensions between the two countries.

Lets Get Real: 

Three words, Fog of War, both sides are stating information as FACTS, its background noise, only check with the BBC News or Sky News, as long as the sides are giving doing unverified, they are not using NUKES, the US and the UK should be on the phone or sending their Secretary of States who deal with foreign affairs to do some shuttle Diplomacy, warning both sides to cut it out, D.C and London does not have the bandwidth to deal with more crisis points, Ukraine and Gaza are enough.

Changing Chairs on the Titanic - David Cameron back as Foreign Secretary - Sunak Government

Long Post: Those kind to read this blog, might have noticed that this blog has not covered UK politics for a while.  The reason is simple, this blog agrees we are heading for an election in 2024/25 and that Labour under Sir Keir Starmer will win.  The Conservative Party under Boris left our loyal friends in Afghanistan with no protection, and we still have the boat problem, the Sunak Government does not want to deal with the issue.   Also after 13/14 years in power, the Conservatives are tired of Government and it will take a good political loss to shake the Party up, it will be like 1997 again, a huge Labour Majority, and in for 1 or 2 terms.

BBC News: Reports " David Cameron vows to support Rishi Sunak after surprise cabinet comeback...The former prime minister has been appointed foreign secretary and accepted a peerage to take the post.  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog supported the then PM Cameron during the coalition Government and the General Election of 2015, this blog broke with Cameron over his views on the EU, this was a Brexit blog and still is.  The Conservative Right will have to watch FCO under Cameron like a hawk, no weakening on our Brexit stand.  The FCO has always been weak, from appeasement to the EU, Lady Thatcher did not truest the FCO, and with good reason.  As a political move, WHY NOT, DC is good on the TV, still out there is the Gaza War and the Ukraine.  As stated the election will be next year, Labour will win, and DC will have a nice Seat in the House.  Not all political careers end in failure. 

Liz Truss is the new PM - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.27pm post the following, " Queen asked Liz Truss to form a new government - Palace...Buckingham Palace said in a statement that the Queen had an audience with Ms Truss and "requested her to form a new administration".  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Liz Truss ERA starts, the reports from the news channels is that PM Liz Truss will go big on the cost of living crisis, gas prices will be frozen, this will cost the Country between one hundred billion and one hundred and thirty billion.  Also let's recall the PM stated that she would CUT TAXES, one is sure there will be other sweets for the PM to give out.  One can expect a emergency Budget within a few days, even if it is not called that.  Also the Russians might try something in the Ukraine, to see how much attention the new PM gives to it.  The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is going through the House of Lords, that could cause problems.  The PM has a full tray of problems, the worse crisis since 1979, Truss has a few weeks to short them out. The next few hours we expect a speech from the new PM at 10 Downing Street, also the new Cabinet will be rolled out, the lower levels might take a few days.  Thus a interesting week ahead. 

Sunak's U - Turn over Tax - Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News: Reports " Tory leadership: Rishi Sunak supporters deny U-turn in row over VAT cut  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Sunak Campaign is in TROUBLE, although his campaign Sunak has refused to agree to tax cuts, only when inflation is down, well one must assume that the Sunak Campaign has read the POLLS, the public ones and the internal ones and worked out, that Sunak is political toast if he does not move on the issue.   One does recall Lady Thatcher's famous remark at a Conservative Party Conference, when she was under pressure due to her policies, she said this Lady is not for turning, Sunak has shown that he is WEAK, what will he do when faced with strikes on the railways, NHS and other public sectors, will he agree to wages to match inflation, thus making inflation worse.  The Truss Campaign should ram this MAJOR U -TURN down the throat of the Sunak Campaign, it should be noted that the former Chancellor will face Andrew Neil on Friday, one can expect a very tough interview, it seems that Truss was right to refuse the interview request, why go in to a political minefield if you do not have too. 

Conservative Leadership Debate - Talk TV - After Brexit/Boris

Guido Fawkes: Reports in its 6.34pm post the following, " Guido understands from multiple sources that Kate McCann fainted. A TalkTV spokesperson says “There’s been a medical issue, it’s not a security issue and the candidates are okay – if we can get back on air we will.” .....UPDATE: A TalkTV spokesperson has confirmed that Kate is okay, although the debate has been cancelled: “Kate McCann fainted on air tonight and although she is fine, the medical advice was that we shouldn’t continue with the debate. We apologise to our viewers and listeners.”  "

Lets Get Real:

This review of the actual debate will be very short, we were half way through the debate when the moderator as reported above fainted, the Sunak and Truss must have gotten word to tone down the personal attacks, Rishi Sunak on the whole was on better behaved and not so rude to Liz Truss.  The former Chancellor did go on a bit, the Moderator had to tell him to allow the Foreign Secretary to come in to the discussion.  The Foreign Secretary was calm, but the picture showed that she didn't agree with the former Chancellor.  Sunak it seems was not happy that he was not allowed to attack, he looked like a political eunuch.   As a former ELITE Banker, it looked like that he knew he was toast, there was not so much over speaking over the Liz and the Moderator.   Thus a verdict has to be short, a draw, even if Sunak knows the Crown will not be his this time.  One sends one's best wishes to the Moderator.  This debate will go down in UK and even US political history, due to the above events.  The only debate that comes to mind is the 1976 Presidential debate when President Ford was debating then Governor Carter, the sound went off while the candidates debated. 

Truss leads Sunak on POLICY - After Brexit / Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.04pm post the following, " Polling from YouGov suggests that Liz Truss was perceived by Tory members to have outperformed Sunak on every issue covered in last night’s debate.....In particular, she led on Ukraine, cost of living and levelling up, although her lead was weaker on Brexit, the environment and taxation.  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog is going to make a BOLD suggestion to the Sunak Camp, that the former Chancellor have a look at getting out of the race before the Conservative membership start to vote, he did not do well in last night's debate, as the above poll suggests Truss LEAD in ALL AREAS.  If the former Chancellor gets out of the race early he might get a job in the Truss Cabinet, as PM Truss could make him Foreign Secretary her old job, thus there would be no need for a great Cabinet reshuffle.  Of course such a move might not go down well the Conservative members, on the other hand, it would be seen as bringing the PARTY together and not helping the Labour Party.  In the debate last night Sunak did well with Labour voters, not the best indicator for a general election.  Also Sunak is defending a sticky wicket, he wants to wait in till next year for tax cuts, while Truss will have them from the start.  Truss is taking the bull by the horns, while Sunak is following the Treasury line, as they used to say in Yes Minister, he has been house trained by the Department, in other words defending the orthodox of the Treasury, they never like to spend money, as they think the money is theirs and not the public who pay the taxes. 

What the POLLS say about the Conservative Debate last night - After Brexit/Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.06pm post the following, " 

Snap poll shows 50% of Tory members felt Truss performed best last night....

A snap poll of 507 Conservative Party members who watched the TV debate last night shows 50% felt Liz Truss performed the best...In contrast, the poll by YouGov shows just 39% of party members felt Rishi Sunak delivered a better performance.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus you pick your POLL, on the whole it was up to Sunak to hit Truss hard, and to show that she is weak or does not know what she is talking about, that didn't work, and Sunak had to defend the biggest tax hike since 1949, that is not a easy wicket with Conservative voters.  Truss was cool and calm, what you want from a PM.  The Foreign Secretary was clear that the UK would not send the Royal Navy to protect grain from being taken from the Ukraine to Africa, any NATO action would allow Putin's Russia to use that as PR, and also the Royal Navy would come under threat from Russia.  That is a fast way to start WW3.  It should be noted that Sunak did seem to calm down as the debate went on, but that was to late for this blogger, he had give this blog a small headache, one does hope as stated that someone takes him to the side and tells him to calm down and not to speak over the Foreign Secretary if he wants a job in her Cabinet. 

The Reaction to the Conservative Leadership Debate - After Brexit/ Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 11.38am post the following, " Tory voters thought Truss performed best in debate, poll finds...It found that while Conservative voters thought Liz Truss performed better in the debate, Sunak was more popular with Labour voters ... "

Lets Get Real:

This blog watched the debate and thought someone should have told Rishi Sunak that it was DEBATE, not a shouting match, every time Liz Truss was about to speak, Sunak put about his views, also can he drop the statement that his mother owned a chemist and he did the books, one or two mentions was enough, it is his standard speech to give to Conservative members, they will have heard it by now, its gets a bore.  Sunak came across as a elite banker, in the mould of Gordon Gekko, but without the charisma.  Sunak was shouting all the time, it gave this blog a headache, what did it give other viewers.  Truss was a competent debater, when she could get in to speak, Sunak spoke over her and the BBC presenter.  The next debate someone on the Sunak team should tell him to shut up, it gives a better presentation to Conservative voters, who do not like him for stabbing PM Boris in the back.  It was ironic at the end the candidates were asked to grade the PM, he got 7/10 from Truss, while Sunak gave him 10/10 for Brexit and Covid - 19.  PM Boris is the past for the present, this contest is still in favour of Liz Truss, and if Sunak wants a job in her CABINET, he should show some respect. 

Sunak to take on Andrew Neil - Conservative Leadership Contest

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.46pm post the following, " Sunak takes jab at Truss for declining Andrew Neil interview....Rishi Sunak has taken a swipe at his leadership rival Liz Truss for declining to take part in a live interview on Channel 4 this Friday with political journalist Andrew Neil.  "

Lets Get Real: 

The Foreign Secretary is WISE not to go on Andrew Neil show, he is a great reporter and reads the fine print, he is not going to give Sunak a easy interview, he will look at his record as Chancellor, also the biggest tax hike since 1949.  The Sunak Campaign has nothing to lose, it needs to make up with the Conservative grass roots, they do not trust him for putting the political knife in to PM Boris, also taxes at a 70 year high do not help.  The Sunak Campaign has been very slick, very American, also it has moved right, thus this is Channel 4 expect a rough interview.  This blog can not understand why the Conservative Party said YES to a interview of the Conservative Candidates when they were going through the MPs process of the contest.  Channel 4 is peeved that it is being SOLD, thus expect that to come up, also why Sunak in Cabinet opposed the Northern Ireland Protocol in Cabinet but has changed his mind since.  It will be interesting to see who wins the BBC DEBATE tonight, and the different categories, the general public, conservative MPs and finally Conservative members. 

Sunak on the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Brexit / Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 2.36pm post ( July 22 ) the following by the Sunak Campaign , " "As a believer in Brexit from the beginning, Rishi has been clear that he would continue with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill until and unless the EU says it is willing to come to the table to renegotiate the contents of the Protocol......"Based on what we have seen today, the commission is committed to taking petty and unwelcome steps that infringe on our sovereign rights, rather than addressing the real issues around the Protocol."  "

Lets Get Real:

It is a pity that the former Chancellor had not said this earlier in his campaign, the lack of talking about the subject has allowed Foreign Secretary Truss to take the LEAD when it comes to the EU and Brexit, the petty actions by the French over Dover have showed that the French and the EU cannot be trusted.  Also Rishi Sunak has stated that the Northern Protocol Bill is a asset he will place on the table to get a better deal with the EU.  The DUP will not be happy, they see the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill as making them part of the UK again, thus Sunak would face problems if he becomes the PM, the EU will think he is WEAK and will buckle under pressure from Brussels.  This this blog is going from indifference to the outcome of the leadership campaign to supporting Liz Truss.  The Northern Ireland Protocol is that important. Go LIZ.

Liz Truss has a 20% lead over Sunak with Party Members - After Brexit / Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.23pm post the following, " 

Liz Truss 'has 20 point lead over Sunak' - YouGov...

Patrick English, from YouGov, has told Sky News that Liz Truss has a 20-point lead over Rishi Sunak among Conservative members, according to their most recent polling.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Conservative membership was more loyal to PM Boris than his MPs, they tend to be older, white, and to the right of their MPs.  Conservative Members want to see low taxes, a smaller state, and finishing Brexit.  Truss voted REMAIN in 2016 but she has become a CONVERT, and is now at the present pushing the Northern Ireland Protocol through the House of Commons.  While Rishi Sunak supported Brexit in 2016 but was very cool to the Protocol Bill when discussed in the Cabinet.  Liz Truss wants TAX CUTS NOW, that always goes down well with Party members and the general public.  Of course we have a long Summer to go, it would be risky to make a prediction, but his blog will take the risk, it will be Truss by a few % points, one can expect the Chancellor to take the fight to the Foreign Secretary, and there will be meetings for the party members to meet and grill the candidates, politicians make mistakes, let's see who can follow the script.   On the whole the blog is indifferent  about the result, Sunak has promised to rip up EU laws when he comes in to office, but first he has to get elected, Rishi just might be to rich even for Conservative members.  Thus on the whole on the Liz side, we have all made mistakes, Liz was a Liberal Democrat and Remainer, but she has reformed.  Thus political sins have to be forgiven. 

The Final Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.01pm post the following, " Mordaunt knocked out of contest...Penny Mordaunt has been knocked out of the Conservative leadership contest, meaning Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss will face each other in the run-off decided by party members. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog and others got the result right, its down to Former Chancellor Sunak versus the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.  On the whole this blog support Liz, she did not resign and betray PM Boris, while Sunak started the ball rolling that lead to the downfall of Boris.   The Foreign Secretary taking the Northern Ireland Protocol through the House of Commons, one will be interested to hear if Sunak becomes PM will he use the Bill if it is needed to place pressure on the EU.  It is reported that in Cabinet that the Chancellor was opposed to using the bill as a way to place pressure on the EU.  The recent POLLS of Conservative membership  have shown that the membership support LIZ over Rishi, Liz wants TAX CUTS KNOW, while Sunak wants to get inflation down then go for tax cuts.  The UK economy needs a push to stay away from going in to recession, BIG TAX CUTS should help.  The Summer is a long time, we shall see if Liz can keep her 20% over Sunak, a weeks is a long time in politics. 

The 8 Candidates in the First Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

Guido Fawkes: Reports on the 8 Candidates through to the First Round, " Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman,Jeremy Hunt,Penny Mordaunt,Rishi Sunak,Liz Truss,Tom Tugendhat,Nadhim Zahawi, "

Lets Get Real:

Thus a bit of shock, eight have gotten through, thus we have a real fight on the right of the Party, one would assume that the final 2 could be known by next Monday, as stated in this blog, it postulates that it will be down to Rishi Sunak and Lizz Truss, the members of the Conservative Party are to the right of the MPs, thus as Truss is seen as more of the Brexit supporter she might get the nod from the members.  Overnight there will be a lot of deal being done, to get the support of the candidates who fall out and do not reach the 30 need to get to the next round.  When it comes to Conservative leadership contest, MPs are as devious as your worst cynic, more fun to follow.

Those in the First Round Tomorrow for the Conservative Leadership - After Brexit / Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.30pm post the following, " At least five Tories now expected on ballot, as Hunt joins Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt and Tugendhat in reaching 20 threshold  "

Lets Get Real:

The process is going the way this blog predicted, it will be Sunk and Truss in the final around.  Those on the right of the Party will have to place their support in Truss, the Foreign Secretary was a REAMINER in 2016, but has been converted to a firm BREXIT supporter, while Sunak has been accused for not supporting the opportunities of Brexit in Cabinet.  The NEXT PM has to be a firm Brexit supporter otherwise the membership will not support a iffy PM.  One hopes the Conservative MPs get that FACT, that they need the membership to knock on doors during elections, they need the NEXT PM to be the same page as the members up to a point. 

The RULES for the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 7.43pm post the following, " Candidates standing in the Tory leadership race will need at least 20 supporters to get on the leadership vote ballot...nominations will open and close on Tuesday....MPs will conduct the first round of voting on Wednesday.  "

Lets Get Real:

This will cut down the number of candidates, some might find it a struggle to get to 20.  One can presume that the former Chancellor Sunak and the Foreign Secretary Truss will get through, but the rest, well depends who the MPs want to tie to their futures too.   As noted in my previous post the political knifes have come out already, it is reported that some campaign's have give the Labour Party dossiers in attempt to smear fellow campaigns.  Tuesday is going to be interesting, who gets through and what do the candidates who can not hit 20 nominations give their support to on Wednesday.  This blog is going to predict it will be the Foreign Secretary who finally gets the nod, of course this blog could be very WRONG, it happens. Keep your eyes on the news channels, they will get the results faster that print media. 

1922 Committee Rules for the Conservative Leadership - After Brexit/Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.24pm post the following, " "The new 1922 Committee executive has some important decisions to make, first of all obviously the timetable for the leadership election......"What we expect is nominations opening tomorrow, probably first ballot Wednesday and perhaps another round on Thursday...."What the '22 executive is likely to do is [change] the number of nominations you need – at the moment it's just eight.  "

Lets Get Real:

As of NOW there are 11 candidates, it could go up one if the Home Secretary jumps in to the race.  The political knives are already out, ALLEGATIONS are being thrown about the various candidates, affairs, sexual deviance, personal finance and if people have paid their taxes in the UK.  The 1922 Committee needs a quick and fast contest, the number of nominations that a candidate needs should go up from 8 or even 36 it has been reported.  That will get rid of those candidates you have NEVER heard off, and those that even Conservative MPs do not know that well.  Then the race should be over by next week after various rounds, with the last candidate being out, in till we get to the final two and the vote by the Conservative members.  The favourite in the former Chancellor, but how will his tax increase go down with the members, then final candidate should be a FIRM BREXIT supporter, the Foreign Secretary is the most well known, but voted REMAIN in 2016, that could be a problem.  The fun has started. 

The Knifes come out in the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Boris

Guardian: Reports " One senior No 10 official was quoted in the Financial Times as calling Sunak “a treacherous bastard”, while a Johnson supporter in the cabinet told the paper: “Rishi will get everything he deserves for leading the charge in bringing down the prime minister.”  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus there is no loves lost between the PM Boris and his present Chancellor and his former Chancellor, so expect the PM to try to make sure that the successor he wants gets the job.  Yes PM Boris is till there, to think that he will keep quite over the next few weeks  IS MAD, he will want to get those that bought him down.  Also the Government cannot just STOP everything that is going on, the Northern Ireland Protocol is going through the House of Commons, the economy needs a push in the right direction, thus there is a need for TAX CUTS.   The War in the Ukraine is still going on, one can expect that Putin will try something as he sees the US and the UK at weak at present, with Biden polls down the toilet and PM Boris on the way out.  In many respects democratic politics is a brutal business, you develop a career and by errors on your part or external event you find yourself in BIG TROUBLE and your career goes down the toilet.  Whatever you think of Boris, you will know who people are talking about, with others you might require more information. 

Liz Truss the Foreign Secretary to enter Conservative Contest - After Boris

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 6.26pm post the following, " Truss to offer 'classic Conservative principles' in leadership bid....She will pledge to reverse the government's national insurance rise, cut corporation tax and introduce measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis, the newspaper added.  "

Let's Get Real:

The Foreign Secretary VOTED REMAIN in the 2016 Brexit vote, but she has become a convert, as Foreign Secretary she has taken the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill through the House of Commons, and is reported that she wants to be tough with the EU.  It will be interesting to see who gets the Boris vote, it wont be the present Chancellor or the ex Chancellor as they helped the  process that lead to Boris having to go, let's be honest, the worse enemy of Boris has been is himself.  One can expect that ALL the networks will offer to have the Candidate debates on their channel.  The Conservative Party should be careful, BBC News and Sky News are remoaners and anti Conservative.  That goes for Channel 4 News and the Times.  Thus the Conservative Party should make sure the moderators are FAIR, and not part of the elite liberal press.  It is going to be an interesting two weeks!

Runner AND Riders for the Conservative Leadership Contest - So Far - After PM Boris

BBC News: Reports " Mr Shapps joins former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Attorney General Suella Braverman, former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Tom Tugendhat in launching campaigns to take over from Prime Minister Boris Johnson.  "

Lets Get Real:

There are quick developments while this blog was writing its post another candidate is standing, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi has thrown his hat in to the ring.  The Chancellor already has a negative, he accepted the job and then wrote a letter that stabbed Boris in the front.  Expect more candidates!    Thus far this blog has no favourite as to who should be the successor to PM Boris, the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak started the ball rolling that ended the time of Boris in office, thus a negative to start with, then while Chancellor he has risen taxes to there highest since 1949.   On the plus point, he voted Brexit in 2016, but it has been reported that he has some reservations on the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill going through the House of Commons at the moment.  It will be interesting to see see do some tough TV interviews, and asked about his tax plan, at the moment he is against tax cuts, and his view of Brexit.  Also his campaign team was ready very fast, slick video etc, so when did he plan to resign. The other declared candidates are new to even to this blog, so let's see their tax policies and their views on Brexit.  There is expected a few more candidates, the Foreign Secretary, two former Health Secretaries, thus we have some time to go before the 1922 Committee meets on Monday to decide the rules of the CONTEST.  The contest should be quick, the entry requirement should be at least 20 MP supporters, and then the rounds should start on the Wednesday, as to get the the number of candidates down to two, and then the membership can vote. 

Customs Partnership Debate - Update 2 - Post Brexit

Daily Mail: Reports " PM insists her Brexit customs plan is NOT dead despite Boris Johnson branding it 'crazy' as she stops short of rebuking him at awkward Cabinet meeting  "

Lets Get Real:

At some point the PM will have to make a choice and chose a side.  Either she goes along with a HARD BREXIT and fails to get it through the House of Commons, or a soft Brexit that might get through the House of Commons at the cost of her job.  As stated this blog has been very clear on what must be done, the UK needs to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market, that is best for the future of the Conservative Party and the UK.  The new split will come within Labour, hard remainers in the Lords want the UK to take the option of staying in the Customs Union and single market, this would restrict a future Corbyn Government, this is opposed by the Labour leadership, both political parties have problems.