Speaker Boehner and the Republican House

The New York Times: Reports the following facing Republican Speaker Boehner when it comes to the up coming  economic cliff, " ..must decide whether he wants to seal his role as an essential player in a grand plan to restructure the nation’s fiscal condition, or continue the status quo of the very gridlock voters appear to detest. ". 

Lets Get Real:

This is commentary folks, the uber liberal NYT just wants to raise taxes, what the voter did on Election day was keep the present gridlock in place,  the Obama Coattails did not make the Democrats the majority party in the House, without the House no grand deal.   Any economic recession from the US going over the cliff would be a Obama recession, the voters that elected POTUS for a 2nd term as not the same voters that voted to keep the Republican House.   Lets be clear President Obama go re-elected on a narrow margin when looking back to 2008.   The US is split, the Oval could appeal on the TV and the new media for public support for tax hikes, but that group are not Republican primary voters, and they tend not to vote in Mid Terms, thus the reason that the Republicans took the House in 2010.   The Republican members of the House face re-election in 2014, they tend to be in safe seats, thus the main threat is in the primary, thus they have to keep their party base happy, that base has no interest in tax hikes, also the Speaker wants to keep his job as Speaker, thus he has to keep members on board.   The White House will find as other 2nd term Presidents have found their power wanes faster than they thought, the Democrats and Republicans will get getting ready for 2014 and 2016 and the Obama will not be on the ticket. That might be the hardest lesson that Obama learns in the Oval, that he does not matter, none of them like that, that is the bubble of the Oval. 

Petraeus SEX Scandal - P2

Guardian: Reports the following on the Petraeus scandal and its effect in Washington D.C, " ..drip-feed of details concerning his clandestine affair mixes with serious questions over the timing of the resignation. ".

Lets Get Real:

That the FBI would investigate the Director of the CIA is no great surprise, these two Government Agencies can not stand each other, one has to ask does the General not know that the Director Hoover of the FBI blackmailed the Kennedy's so he could bug leading leaders of the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s.   Also the great TV mini series of the 1970s Washington Behind Closed Doors had a director with a mistress, also dealt with national security concerns, as the article notes the General was up for a Congressional grilling over Libyagate.  If the General is forced to attend these hearings he might decide to throw the Oval under the bus, he has nothing to lose.    The Oval should be worried folks, the General might think its better to throw the Oval under the bus than take any more rebukes, he has nothing to lose, a ex Director of CIA in the Cold should really worry the 2nd term Obama Administration. 

Petraeus SEX Scandal

Telegraph: Reports on the background to sex scandal that bought down General Petraeus, the hero of Iraq and Director of the CIA. 

Lets Get Real:

This blog has no interest in personal scandals, but the reader if he or she wants to can click the link.   This blog supports the statement of the Oval, " David Petraeus has provided extraordinary service to the United States for decades. By any measure, he was one of the outstanding General officers of his generation, helping our military adapt to new challenges, and leading our men and women in uniform through a remarkable period of service in Iraq and Afghanistan, where he helped our nation put those wars on a path to a responsible end. As Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, he has continued to serve with characteristic intellectual rigor, dedication, and patriotism. By any measure, through his lifetime of service David Petraeus has made our country safer and stronger.

Today, I accepted his resignation as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. I am completely confident that the CIA will continue to thrive and carry out its essential mission, and I have the utmost confidence in Acting Director Michael Morell and the men and women of the CIA who work every day to keep our nation safe. Going forward, my thoughts and prayers are with Dave and Holly Petraeus, who has done so much to help military families through her own work. I wish them the very best at this difficult time.  "  In less there is a national security aspect to this scandal lets hope the press leave the General alone, one can say that he has earned that, we all mess up, even heroes. 

Death in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that a UK Soldier has been killed in Afghanistan, the Soldier was from the " The Royal Scots Borderers, 1st Battalion The Royal Regiment of Scotland ".   Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 438 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 395 in combat/hostile action, while 43 have died due to illness, accidents or other incidents. 

Lame Duck Obama - 2nd Obama Term

Guardian: Reports the following on the second Obama Administration, " Historically, they have been more troubled than first terms, achieving less and seeing presidential authority beginning to leak away almost as soon they win re-election.  ".

Lets Get Real:

Even the left wing Guardian gets the fact that in political terms the 2nd Obama Term has a limited self life, lets look at this pattern, Nixon after a big win 1972 had Watergate on his plate, after winning 49 States, 59% of the vote and 525 electoral votes the great Reagan had Iran - Contra to deal with at the end of 1986, while Bill Clinton had his Cuban Cigar problem that wrecked his domestic agenda, as he needed Democrats on the Hill to prevent getting thrown out of office. Bush 43 had Iraq and the near death of the US and World banking system.   Thus lets take the TARDIS and look at what could face POTUS in his 2nd term, as stated we have the financial cliff, then we have Iran, this folks could the crisis that destroys a 2nd Obama term.  Lets postulate that Israel decides that Obama is trying to sell them down the river, they strike Iran, the Oval has a choice, not really, the Israeli Lobby will make sure that the Congress, Republicans and Democrats support such move, any real candidate for 2016 will support Israel, in other words the Oval will have no choice, it will have to support Israel and follow on with US strikes to finish the job.    The liberal left would lose it, one can see the cries of anger on the uber NYT web site even now, EVENTS, EVENTS and EVENTS folks.  What if Assad of Syria uses chemical weapons on his people, he might think that he can roll Obama, would he be wrong. The US voter does not want any more Middle East Wars after Libya and the death of their Ambassador.  Thus Iran and Syria could break Obama. 

No to TAX HIKES - Speaker Boehner

BBC News: Reports that Republican House Speaker John Boehner has rejected the idea of tax hikes coming out of the Oval.

Lets Get Real: 

Even if the Speaker wanted to deal on tax hikes he could not get his members to go along, lets recall House members do not have term limits, thus they have to look over their shoulder at the next election, they have no interest in agreeing to any Obama idea if it effects 2014.   That is the simple brutal truth.  The Speaker will not raise taxes, and this blog has doubts that even the Democratic Senate would agree to tax hikes at the level the President wants, that cliff will have Obama's attached to it should the US go over it, thus the Oval might have won re-election but it did so with a lower margin than in 2008, the Obama coattails did not help the Democrats take the House, and the House can cut off Obama at the knees when it comes to his domestic agenda, thus two to four more years of gridlock with the US heading the path of Rome and the British Empire, ah those Reagan/Thatcher years look great now folks. 

Obama.2 and Congress

The White House: Transcript of President Obama's remarks on the economic cliff facing the US, the President stated the following, " I’ve invited leaders of both parties to the White House next week, so we can start to build consensus around the challenges that we can only solve together. And I also intend to bring in business and labor and civic leaders from all across the country here to Washington to get their ideas and input as well...  "   ( Good ) " That’s the focus of the plan I talked about during the campaign. (Applause.)  It’s a plan to reward small businesses and manufacturers that create jobs here, not overseas.  It’s a plan to give people the chance to get the education and training that businesses are looking for right now.  It’s a plan to make sure this country is a global leader in research and technology and clean energy, which will attract new companies and high-wage jobs to America.  It’s a plan to put folks back to work, including our veterans, rebuilding our roads and our bridges, and other infrastructure.  And it’s a plan to reduce our deficit in a balanced and responsible way.  " ( The President is still on the Campaign trail, bad for talks ) " Our work is made that much more urgent because at the end of this year, we face a series of deadlines that require us to make major decisions about how to pay our deficit down -- decisions that will have a huge impact on the economy and the middle class, both now and in the future.  Last year, I worked with Democrats and Republicans to cut a trillion dollars’ worth of spending that we just couldn’t afford.  I intend to work with both parties to do more -- and that includes making reforms that will bring down the cost of health care so we can strengthen programs like Medicaid and Medicare for the long haul.  " ( The President gets the fact that there has to be a deal!, that's nice ) " But as I’ve said before, we can’t just cut our way to prosperity.  If we’re serious about reducing the deficit, we have to combine spending cuts with revenue -- and that means asking the wealthiest Americans to pay a little more in taxes.  (Applause.)  That’s how we did it in the 1990s, when Bill Clinton was President.  That’s how we can reduce the deficit while still making the investments we need to build a strong middle class and a strong economy.  That’s the only way we can still afford to train our workers, or help our kids pay for college, or make sure that good jobs in clean energy or high-tech manufacturing don’t end up in countries like China.   Now, already, I’ve put forward a detailed plan that allows us to make these investments while reducing our deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade.  I want to be clear -- I’m not wedded to every detail of my plan.  I’m open to compromise.  I’m open to new ideas.  I’m committed to solving our fiscal challenges.  But I refuse to accept any approach that isn’t balanced.  I am not going to ask students and seniors and middle-class families to pay down the entire deficit while people like me, making over $250,000, aren’t asked to pay a dime more in taxes.  I'm not going to do that.  (Applause.) " ( Does POTUS really understand the US election cycle, in some respects he has a VERY narrow  window for a deal, the Republicans can JUST SAY NO to tax hikes, the US goes over a clliff, and Obama gets a Obama Recession.  The next election is in 2014, and the Republicans and their Super Pacs will make sure that the blame for the recession lands on the Oval.   The Oval has to get the fact that he is not on the ticket in 2014 or 2016, and Biden is a joke as the next President. ) 

The Democrats in the House and the Senate have to run in 2014 and 2016, the Obama voters did not come out in 2010, thus the reason that Obama lost the House, as leaders go on, as with 2nd term Presidents they lose support, thus the Oval might find that Democrats will be quite happy to run against Obama as Republicans.  This is why Presidents move to foreign affairs in their 2nd terms, they are on the whole dead on the Hill, Reagan in 1986 was different he got tax reform through, but that is the exception folks, 2nd term agendas go like the dodo and fast, that is US politics.