The Fiscal Cliff Talks - Update

The New York Times: Reports that a meeting between President Obama and Speaker Boenher on Thursday did not look like a deal had been struck. 

Lets Get Real:

The Liberal base of the Democratic Party wants the US to go over the fiscal cliff, then tax hikes will happen for everyone and US defence spending will be hit hard.  The Republicans at the start will get the blame, the liberal main stream media such as the liberal NYT will say that is the fault of the House Republicans, but this spin will not help the Oval, if the US goes in to recession it will be a Obama recession, then the election cycle  hits, the Republicans and Democrats will start to get ready for the 2014 Mid Terms, if Obama can not deal with the Congress this will hurt Democrats in the long term, also in the 2012 Election POTUS promised that the Middle Class would not see tax hikes, well if the US goes over that cliff the Middle Class will take a big hit, and the Oval will feel its wrath.   As POTUS can not run again, and does not have a horse in the 2016 race, VP Biden will not be the next President, then Democrats it can be postulated will want some distance from the Oval, after 8 years US voters will want a change, thus Hillary Clinton is in a perfect position to seek some distance from the Oval, she was a loyal Secretary of State, thus the Obama supporters can not really attack her should see need some clear water between her and Obama.    Of course this all depends on the polls, if Obama is like a Reagan he can help Hillary Clinton, if of course if he is like Bill Clinton in 2000 and is a vote loser by the perception of the Clinton Camp they can ditch him.   In way the US election cycle is bad government but for political geeks it is great, mid way through next year expect the Democrats and Republicans to head to Iowa and NH, the election race starts all over again. 

The Fiscal Cliff - Update

CNN - Politics: Reports the following on the talks between POTUS and the House Speaker, " ..there was no movement on the main sticking point of tax rates, sources familiar with the conversation told CNN ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval knows that the Speaker will fold, right after the election Speaker Boehner offered revenue increases, you do not offer off the bat in talks, you start from your extreme point and work your way down, the Oval will have guessed that the House will fold at the last minute, and thus the White House will get its tax hikes and NO WELFARE CUTS, the Democrats then can push the House around for the next two years.   The Tea Party supporters in the Republican controlled House should pick someone to stand against Boehner, a hard line tea Party supporter who understand the agenda of the Gipper, small government, low taxes and a strong defence.  The Speaker should scare the hell out of the Oval, constant Congressional investigations, make them work 24/7 for every vote they want, then beat them with the Republican Majority.   This is the Chicago way folks, its not nice, but its politics 101 in the Chicago political system, the system that gave the Democrats Obama.   

The Oval on Susan Rice

The White House: Has a Presidential Statement on the withdrawal of Susan Rice for consideration as Secretary of State, " Today, I spoke to Ambassador Susan Rice, and accepted her decision to remove her name from consideration for Secretary of State. For two decades, Susan has proven to be an extraordinarily capable, patriotic, and passionate public servant. As my Ambassador to the United Nations, she plays an indispensable role in advancing America’s interests. Already, she has secured international support for sanctions against Iran and North Korea, worked to protect the people of Libya, helped achieve an independent South Sudan, stood up for Israel’s security and legitimacy, and served as an advocate for UN reform and the human rights of all people. I am grateful that Susan will continue to serve as our Ambassador at the United Nations and a key member of my cabinet and national security team, carrying her work forward on all of these and other issues. I have every confidence that Susan has limitless capability to serve our country now and in the years to come, and know that I will continue to rely on her as an advisor and friend. While I deeply regret the unfair and misleading attacks on Susan Rice in recent weeks, her decision demonstrates the strength of her character, and an admirable commitment to rise above the politics of the moment to put our national interests first. The American people can be proud to have a public servant of her caliber and character representing our country. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is funny folks, you can laugh, lets be clear here, the Oval never actually in a formal manner nominated Ambassador Rice to be the next US Secretary State, thus this statement is based  on a D.C rumour that was never actually confirmed by the Oval.    One has to to think that Senator Kerry will be pleased to be the next Secretary State even if he was the 2nd choice, the Republicans will see it as way to get former Senator Scott Brown back in to the Senate after he lost his race in November.   This mess is down to the fact that Ambassador Rice at the height of the 2012 election allowed herself to be used by the Oval to spin a weak a story about the death of the US Ambassador to Libya that was NOT TRUE, even as she went on the 5 Sunday talk shows they story was falling apart, this should be a political lesson to the Ambassador, do not fall on your sword if your not going to get any benefits in the future, it seems from the latest reports that Rice will be made Obama's National Security Advisor, in other words foreign policy will be made at the Oval, so expect some rows between State and the Oval. 

Susan Rice - NOT Madam Secretary

Guardian: Reports that the US UN Ambassador Susan Rice has withdrawn from the race to be the next US Secretary of State, the blog states the following, " To many seasoned observers it looks like the president has just lost a high-profile fight with Republicans over a potential nominee he has very publicly defended, indeed is personally linked to. ".

Lets Get Real: 

Thus the Obama 2nd term starts with a defeat folks, this does recall Bush 41 wanting Senator Tower to be his Defence Secretary but failing in the Senate, the next pick was Richard Cheney, yes folks that Cheney, in the liberal view the Dark side of the Bush 43 Administration.   In the Clinton 1st term the Oval has a nightmare in getting a Attorney General, this kind of defeat needs good PR and a good replacement and fast as to move the news cycle.   As the blog states the frontrunner for the job is Senator Kerry, this would be a mistake by the Oval, Kerry is a War hero, Lt Governor, Senator and the 2004 Democratic Nominee, very hard to control folks once he is in the job.  Thus good advice to President Obama, pick someone you like and trust, but with no political base, someone who will bring you good advice but has no PR presence if possible, and will allow the Oval to run Foreign Affairs,   This is good advice to the Oval and its free. 

Boehner NO to OVAL - Debt Limit

BBC News: Reports that Republican House Speaker John Boehner has rejected a White House demand that the Oval be allowed to raise the US Debt limit without House approval. 

Lets Get Real:

This shows folks that the ego of the White House after winning a 2nd term is out of control, the US is facing a financial cliff and the Oval thinks it can blackmail the Republican House to give up the only way it can control Government spending.  In the fight last year of the debt limit the White House had to look at selling US National Parks, in essence ANY House would be mad to give the Oval this kind of power, any President, Republican or Democrat could spend what he or she wants without seeking Congressional approval.    This argument comes from the extreme left and a President who does not get the fact that the voters like HIM but not his policies on the whole, that is what you get when you you receive the Novel Prize for doing nothing.   The Republicans should take the US over the financial cliff, every month after that it become A Obama recession, looks good on sticker.   It is time for Republicans to remind the Oval that it is part of three sections of the US Government, any President is not a KING, and Obama is no FDR, JFK, LBJ or Reagan.   LBJ, Reagan and Clinton knew how to deal with Congress, President Obama expects the House to throw itself on the floor and love him, that all he has ever had, 2nd terms do not work out that way folks. 

North Korea and Iran - Korean Update PT4

The New York Times: Reports that the successful North Korean rocket launch could benefit Iran, the article notes the following, " Some American officials, who have privately warned of increased missile cooperation between Iran and North Korea over the past year.. ".

Lets Get Real:

This really would be the axis of evil folks, Iran and North Korea jointed at the hip when it comes to the bomb and rocket technology, the Tehran Regime could supply North Korea with hard currency while it gets fast information for the creation of the bomb and how to place them on rockets.    This would be a major threat to Israel and the World, if Iran gets the bomb the rest of the Middle East will get itself an arms race, none of Iran's neighbours or the Gulf States would feels safe, thus the nuclear black market, that being Russia, would see a flood of Arab oil, looking for a quick fix when it comes to defence.   The next few years could get hot in Asia and the Middle East folks.   Appeasement never works folks, just leads to War in the long run. 

China and North Korea - Korea Update PT3

Guardian: Reports the following reaction from China to North Korea rocket launch, " ..a tempered response from North Korea's main ally,..which expressed regret but called for a careful reaction, suggests that a push for fresh action by the world body is likely to struggle. ".

Lets Get Real: 

Even China is starting to feel the effects of the negative world economy, thus it can not afford to have millions of starving North Koreans crossing its border, if nothing else the poor North Koreans would take Chinese jobs, think Eastern Europe and now Western Europe workers coming to the UK due to the high levels of unemployment in those regions.  Thus one can see China not agreeing to more sanctions, also the UN has to worry that the North Korea Regime could start if not already has selling its nuclear and rocket technology to Iran.   This would save Iran time, and the Tehran Regime might be on a shorter clock that North Korea.   One can see the Oval placing pressure on South Korea and Japan not to go nuclear, but how long will these Countries allow North Korea to have the bomb before they go nuclear.   Thus expect a arms race folks, sooner or later its going to happen, Japan it can be postulated will go nuclear first, World War Two was a long time ago folks.