Syrian Refugees - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the violence in Syria has seen thousands of Syrians flee, the article notes that thirty thousand Syrians have left Syria for Lebanon in the past 48 hours.

Lets Get Real:

As the violence increase folks expect the regional countries to find that they have problems with the dealing with the numbers, thus expect demands that the UN come up with a united solution, the Assad Regime must think as long as it is supported by Russian, China and Iran it will not have to leave power. In the case of Russia it needs its warm water Port and its close relationship with the Assad Regime to keep it a power within the region, then Iran needs Assad as it allow Tehran to have influence in Lebanon, and also poke Israel through Syria and Lebanon. This major Civil War could last for months folks, but not years, also as stated if Assad is foolish to use WMD's that would be game changer, is Assad that foolish folks, this blog has its doubts.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Syria's intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar had died on Friday morning of wounds " sustained in the recent bombing of the national security team of President Assad.

Lets Get Real:

It seems from the article that the Syrian Army might have pushed the rebels out of sections of Damascus, but the question that has to be asked is how long the national security structure of the Assad can last. It can be postulated that those still loyal to the Assad Regime will be asking themselves what happens to them should Assad fall, they do not want to be on the wrong side of history. The news out of Damascus is confusing, it is hard to say who has the upper hand at this moment, the big question that has to be asked is will the Assad Regime use chemical weapons on its own people, thus far the West has kept out, but the use of WMD would be a major game changer, it could be close call by Assad, it could keep him in power or rush to his exit one way or another, the next few hours and days will be interesting folks.

Obama vs. Romney - The Polls

Rasmussen Reports ( LV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll of the match up between POTUS and Governor Romney, today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 47% to 46%, a 1% lead.

Gallup ( RV ): Reports on its daily tracking poll of the match up between POTUS and Governor Romney, today they are tied at 46%.

Bonus Poll

CBS News/NYT ( RV ): This poll in essence shows a tie, with Governor Romney on 47%. while President Obama is on 46%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks after a few weeks of real dirty pool by both sides we have a tie, neither the Obama Campaign or the Romney Camp should be jumping for joy, on return for investment the Obama Camp would fail, they have spent millions on negative adverts and they are keeping steady, they are not losing, while Romney has not used the political problems of Obama to define Obama as a tax and spend liberal. Lets see who Romney picks for his VP, lets hope its an attack dog, the Republicans needs a attack dog to go after the Democrats.

Obama vs. Republicans - Syrian Crisis

The Hill: Reports that Republican Senators have been critical of the Obama policy in Syria, they want the President Obama to arm the rebels " or take other unilateral measures to stop the bloodshed and replace Assad. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Syrian Crisis if it goes on for months, with constant deaths on the nightly news could be a problem for President Obama, the Republicans want to define Obama as weak, his restart button with Russia has been a disaster, he sold out Poland and the Czech Republic for nothing, the Russian bear sees Obama as weak, a leader who thinks his rhetoric is reality, in other words a push over, the Russians and US voters do not respect high minded weakness, they respect a strong leader, thus in 1980 Reagan was seen as a strong leader, while President Carter was seen as weak after the Iran hostage crisis blew up in addition to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. The Oval should keep very close eye on Syria, its implications might not just be regional, it might change the President in the US in 2013.

US and Syria

Guardian Live - Syria: Reports the following in its 6.26pm post on Syria, " The White House says it does not support extending the UN observer mission in Syria, criticising Russia and China's vetos..".

Lets Get Real:

The Arab Spring could be a problem for the Oval, it has been seen a slow to respond, the rot started with the elections in Iran when the Tehran Regime shot its own people and Obama in essence did not say a word, the people of Tehran were on the Streets looking for Western help and Obama thought his rhetoric was more important than the people. Then in Egypt the Oval was seen as slow to support those that wanted to get rid of the old Mubarak Regime, in Libya the NATO mission was lead by the the UK and France, while the Oval stated it was leading from behind, great campaign slogan. Thus we come to Syria, how many nights of Syrian deaths will it take the Oval to act, one can postulate that the Oval is waiting for the US election, it might not have that much time, if Assad uses chemical weapons then the Oval will have to act, and from the front this time.

Is Assad about to Flee ? - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Opposition sources and a Western diplomat stated Mr Assad was in the coastal city of Latakia...".

Lets Get Real:

The move to Latakia from Damascus allows Assad to get out of a battle zone but also allows for a quick getaway from Syria should Damascus falls to the Syrian rebels. Also lets not discount the chance that it would allow Assad to use chemical weapons on the rebels in Damascus, this would be the last throw of the dice, one has doubts that even the Russians would still be able to to support Assad should he use WMD on his own people. If the Centre can or will not hold then the Regime is finished, one can postulate that the rebels will try to take the TV and Radio stations, if they can take these they would have a powerful weapon, but its a long shot folks, the Syrian defence forces are very good, this bloody civil war could last months, or it could end in a flash. The major problem folks as stated in this blog is the fact that the Syrian conflict is a proxy war between the US and its allies on one side, the CIA is supporting the rebels via Turkey, and the Russians and Iran supporting the Assad Regime, if Assad falls then Putin is out of the Middle East, and Tehran losses a close ally, if Assad gets away with the killing of this own people then Obama is seen as weak, Turkey is seen as being weak for not reacting, and the CIA has another failure. Thus folks the powers have a lot to lose, this Syrian Civil War is gong to get bloody before there is any peace.

Syrian Civil War - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the UK, US and France have stated that the UN has failed in Syria.

Lets Get Real:

This is rather harsh on the UN folks, the UN was and will always be a talking shop, in the Cold War it didn't do a dam thing, it did not bring the sides together or help with the end of the Cold War. It is the modern version of the League of Nations, good intentions but can not deal with the REAL WORLD. The Russian Bear does not want to lose its warm water Port, the Tehran Regime sees the Assad Regime as its proxy War with the West, its a great diversion from the growing Iran crisis. Thus folks the Assad Regime will stay as long as it is backed by Putin's Russia and China, thus many more people will die, and the UN will look feckless and out of date, the only way for there to be a game changer is if the Assad Regime was to use chemical weapons, the West would have no choice but to take action, even Russia could not prevent NATO action, lets hope the Assad Regime is not that stupid folks.