Romney Super Pac vs. Obama

Lets Get Real:

Advert by a Romney Super Pac that attacks the wasteful spending of the Obama Administration. The Advert hits Oval over its wasteful spending on green projects, also shows how US Tax payers created jobs not in the US but abroad. This kind of advert should work well in the Industrial States such as Ohio and Michigan. The Romney Campaign and the Romney Super Pacs should keep it simple in 2012, they should stress the failure of the Obama economic record and how ObamaCare is hiking health costs in the US. As the Clinton Campaign stated in 1992 it’s the economic stupid. Very simple and direct message. The Romney Campaign should not get diverted by social issues, that’s the fight the Democrats want, the three words Republicans should us is the Economy, Economy, Economy.

Domestic Politics vs. International Politics = Israel

Telegraph: Reports that the Israeli Coalition Government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu faces collapse due to internal pressures.

Lets Get Real:

This would be good for the Obama Oval and Iran folks, why you might ask? On the US side if Netanyahu falls the Oval could place pressure on a new Israeli Government to allow for Iran to get the bomb. Thus no air strikes by Israel on Iran. It benefits Iran because it could not be touched in the future, as is the case with North Korea. The Obama Oval does not want to strike Iran, the left of the Democratic Party would go bonkers should the US or Israel strike. Thus local Israeli politics could see the a nuclear arms race in the Middle East folks, one can guarantee that the States of the region will want protection from a nuclear armed Iran, thus they will gain the bomb one way or another. Dark days ahead for the Middle East folks.

Obama attacks Romney on OBL

Lets Get Real:

Folks, cant Democrats and Republicans do adverts that last about 15 to 30 seconds. it’s the MTV generations folks, after a few seconds they switch off. As to Obama Advert, effective; but they used a quote from Romney from 2007, how many U - turns has Obama done; but the question that has to be asked, what is Bill Clinton after, is the Obama Campaign going to do a switch at the Convention, replace VP Biden with Hillary Clinton.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Ambitions and Reagan

NSA: Has interesting documents from the Reagan Era that show in the context of the Cold War the Reagan Administration turned a blind eye to the build up of Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions. The reason the US sent aid to Pakistan and then the Pakistan Government supported the Afghan insurgents against the USSR in Afghanistan.

Lets Get Real:

At the end of the day folks the USSR had to be thrown out of Afghanistan, it was their Vietnam and helped in the downfall of the USSR. Lets have a counter factual look at history, if Reagan had not supported the Pakistan Government and they had not supported the Afghan rebels we might be looking at different world. The USSR without internal resistance might still be in Afghanistan, thus no blow PR wise to the USSR, or long term costs to its military, also it can be argued that Gorbachev might not have gotten power. The USSR old leadership was looking for a counter to Reagan, thus Gorbachev. Of course this is counter factual, but the dots do add up. In essence folks Eastern Europe might not have gained its freedom, the USSR would still be around, one can see Putin in either system. At the end of the day President Reagan made the right choice, you cant not act based on what might happen decades later, it’s a problem for another POTUS.

Spain = Bailout

Daily Mail: Reports that Spain has a unemployment rate of 24.4%, that means 5.6 million people are on the dole.

Lets Get Real:

In essence the Spanish Government is saying its needs a bailout, this level of unemployment only feeds the extreme left and right, one can see a point in the very near future when there is violent civic disorder in Spain. As noted in recent Guardian post up to 10 EU Governments have fallen sine the economic firestorm of 2008, the EU policy as demanded by Germany is austerity, on the left you have demands for more spending, the left should really think about this, what happens if EU reverses course but it does not work, the left will never get back in to power. The only way for real turnabout is if Germany agreed to EU bonds to be underwritten by them, there is a problem folks, the German Basic Law does not allow for that, the issue of debt lead to the fall of the Weimar Germany and the raise of Hitler, thus Germany has a problem with just printing money. There are no good ways out folks, we are going to see a decade or more of stagnation as happened in Japan. The good days are over folks, the problem is that politicians are very afraid to tell the voters, the voters are sleeping walking over a cliff folks, the problem is that the cliff might turn to be real.

France vs. Germany - Eurozone Crisis

Guardian: Reports the following on the expect clash between France and Germany should left wing Presidential Candidate Francois Hollande win the French Presidency, “ Hollande and his team are committed to not ratifying the EU pact unless it is fine-tuned to include growth-boosting policies. ”.

Lets Get Real:

At the end of the day folks, IF France says NO, it does not matter how many EU Countries pass the new EU Treaty it wont matter, without France its just a Germany wish list. The tough austerity packages followed in the EU has hit the brick wall of the welfare state, people are so used to the European Government being there, they have no memory of a world before the welfare state, they assume and demand that the welfare state should be there from birth to death. The problem is if EU Countries fold on austerity its does not solve the problem, small time political rest bite then the other shoe will drop. The Welfare State is killing the EU, it can be argued that it will be sooner not later that Markets will no longer buy EU bonds, as they will be worthless, think Weimar Germany. The Germans have a point, if you have to much debt you end up having to cut, you cant tax 100% or you get the 1970s back again, and that would be disaster. The Germans have to take the Steel fist out and tell France, if they break the new EU Treaty they are on their own, the EU wont bail them out, frighten the French, they do like to retreat.

National Security and the US Election

Telegraph: Reports that President Obama has stated that if Governor Romney had been in the Oval then Osama Bin Laden would still be alive.

Lets Get Real:

This one level is a good political move by the Chicago Re-Elect Committee, on the other hand shows they are worried. On the plus side the Democrats are taking the mantle of hawks on national security, that’s new, its shows that the Oval does not want Romney to have the issue, thus this political strike. On the negative side the Oval must be worried that Israel will strike Iran between now and the November election, this would place POTUS in a tight spot, left wing Democrats would want POTUS to be critical of such an action, but to keep the Oval the White House would have to support such a move. Also Syria is warming up, the Oval does not want to be seen as leading from behind, thus from recent remarks from the Obama Administration it will either get off the dime and take military action or be shown to be ALL bluff when it comes to taking real military action, the taking out of OBL or Libya does not count, one was a single individual and Libya didn’t have the armed forces to fight back, thus a real fight if the Obama has the nerve. The General Election fight is on folks.