The 3rd Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit / Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.05pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 115, Penny Mordaunt - 82, Liz Truss - 71, Kemi Badenoch - 58, Tom Tugendhat - 31  "

Lets Get Real:

As expected Tom went out today, he might be a future heavy weight in the Party even PM, he has to try and not to mention his WAR RECORD every time, this blog honours he service in Iraq and Afghanistan but Tom should try to stop himself bringing up the subject every time over every issue, it become a bit of bore.  Tomorrow this blog predicts that Kemi will be out, one can assume that Tom's votes will go to Penny, as Penny is seen as more of ONE NATION Conservative and is very woke!.  The question for the final round will be is simple, will it be Penny or Liz that face Sunak in the membership vote, it should be noted that Sunak does less well with this membership.  It was wise for the Conservatives to cancel tomorrows debate, the candidates were given ammo to the Labour Party.  This blog is still keeping to its prediction that the final race will be between Rishi and Liz, that of course depends if the Kemi voters go for Liz, one can never be sure with the Conservative MPs. 

Iran could have a NUCLEAR BOMB if it wanted - Tehran - Biden Era

The Jerusalem Post: Reports " Khamenei adviser says Tehran 'capable of building nuclear bomb'......Tehran will also directly respond against Israel should its security be targeted, the report says citing the advisor.  "

Lets Get Real:

This could be IT folks, of course this blog does not trust Tehran for one minute, if they say they can make the bomb if they wish, that means they have the bomb and this is just to let the WORLD KNOW, that they can strike Israel should Israel decide that it cannot wait for Joe Biden to pull his finger out and do something.  One does hope that the CIA, NSA, GCHQ, MI6 have their ears open and agents on the ground to help if the West decides they have to strike, if TEHRAN does not return to the diplomatic table and be totally honest with the UN and the West they leave the West with very few non military options, they have more sanctions on them that Russia at the minute, and still they build towards the bomb.  One does hope that the Biden Oval is up to this crisis, and if the story is true, this is major crisis like the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. 

PM on Brexit - After Brexit / Boris

The Sun: Reports " PENNY'S PROMISE 

I’ll get Brexit re-done and put more pounds in people’s pockets if made Prime Minister, vows Penny Mordaunt "

Lets Get Real:

The article says ALL the right things when it comes to Brexit, but the sister paper of the Sun, the Sunday Times that has a complete view from sources, that PM will not follow through with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and will try to appease the EU.  There is no appeasing the EU, they will just play it out, in till they think that Labour will win the next election.  Either PM is being economic with the truth when it comes to Brexit or the sources in the Sunday Times are feeding the Sunday Times what it wants to HEAR.  On does hope that the debate tonight the issue is bought up, one is tired of the Trans issues, and taxes, there are other things to discuss.  The above article would convince one that PM is a conviction Brexit supporter, but with politicians its what they do not say that counts, or this blog could be paranoid about the political class. 

PM on 2nd Scottish Vote and Northern Ireland Protocol - The UK Union under PM

Guido Fawkes/Sunday Times ( Hard Copy ): Reports that Penny Mordaunt is opposed to another 2nd Independence vote and that Mordaunt would appease the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol by keeping the border in the Irish Sea.  

Lets Get Real:

The Union would come under threat if PM got the job of PM, on the one hand she opposes a 2nd Independence vote for Scotland, but is willing to throw Northern Ireland under the bus, and prevent the establishment of a regional Government for the province.  The DUP has made it CLEAR, they will not go back in to Government with the Nationalists if the Northern Ireland Protocol is not removed or changed in a major way.  The DUP can argue that PM will stand up to the SNP but will not defend the rights of British subjects in Northern Ireland.  Under the LAW if there is no Government in the province after 6 months then there are fresh elections, this would create massive Constitutional problem, the Nationalists could increase their majority and make the DUP and other Unionist Parties feel weak, that could cause more problems in the province even violence, something no one wants to see.  Thus PM has to have a more clear policy, No to the SNP and YES to scrapping parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Northern Ireland, otherwise her administration will start in a confused manner and lead to major problems down the road. 

2nd Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.02pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 101 votes,Penny Mordaunt - 83 votes,Liz Truss - 64 votes,Kemi Badenoch - 49 votes,Tom Tugendhat - 32 votes,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus far the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss is under preforming, thus the blog could be WRONG, it might be Sunak AND Mordaunt, this reason this blog does not think that it would happen this way is the FACT that the right of the party has split its vote. The present Attorney General is out, and one can presume ( always very dangerous when discussing Conservative Leadership contest, ) that the supporters of Suella Braverman will go for Liz Truss, what Kemi is still doing in the race is a mystery, let's be honest Kemi might be famous in her own house but in till last week no one knew who the hell she was.  The Monday round will be interesting, it can be postulated that either Kemi or Tom are on the way out, one would assume Tom, thus his votes might go to Sunak or to PM.  When Kemi is finally out, one would guess her supporters would go to Truss.   Thus the original prediction of this blog might stand, its gets difficult when you cannot tell the wood from the trees, there is a debate tomorrow on the TV, that might change things again, it is going to be a long summer, if it is Sunak and PM ( good initials for a future PM ) are the final two, it has been suggested by various polls of Conservative members will go for PM.  PM is a ONE NATION CONSERVATIVE AND a  Conviction  BREXIT SUPPORTER, this might go down well with the Party, Sunak is seen as having stabbed PM Boris in the back.  A lot can happen over the Summer. 

Results of the First Round Election for the Conservative Leadership - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.02pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 88 votes,Penny Mordaunt - 67 votes,Liz Truss - 50 votes,Kemi Badenoch - 40 votes,Tom Tugendhat - 37 votes,Suella Braverman - 32 votes,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus far this blog is still predicting the FINAL TWO, will be Sunak and the Truss, of course Penny Mordaunt has come 2nd in the vote today, it depends who the right go for in the end, it has been reported that Penny Mordaunt would crush Sunak in the membership vote, thus over the night one can expect that the three main runners, Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss will be on the phone or meeting in person, trying to increase their votes.  This blog has to admit it had never heard of Kemi Badenoch or Suella Braverman before the leadership contest began, it would be interesting to see them do some debates with the other candidates, another VOTE tomorrow, politics is a ruthless business. 

The 8 Candidates in the First Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

Guido Fawkes: Reports on the 8 Candidates through to the First Round, " Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman,Jeremy Hunt,Penny Mordaunt,Rishi Sunak,Liz Truss,Tom Tugendhat,Nadhim Zahawi, "

Lets Get Real:

Thus a bit of shock, eight have gotten through, thus we have a real fight on the right of the Party, one would assume that the final 2 could be known by next Monday, as stated in this blog, it postulates that it will be down to Rishi Sunak and Lizz Truss, the members of the Conservative Party are to the right of the MPs, thus as Truss is seen as more of the Brexit supporter she might get the nod from the members.  Overnight there will be a lot of deal being done, to get the support of the candidates who fall out and do not reach the 30 need to get to the next round.  When it comes to Conservative leadership contest, MPs are as devious as your worst cynic, more fun to follow.