No more LOVE Mr President - NYT

The New York Times: The UBER liberal Maureen Dowd writes the following on Obama 1st debate, " The fact that one diffident debate by the president could throw his whole race into crisis shows that nobody madly loves Obama anymore.  ".

Lets Get Real:

This lack of loyalty should worry the 2nd term Obama team, 2nd terms always have major downs, what is going to happen when that happens to Obama, is his support so THIN, that when the tea bags hit the fan there will be no back up for the Oval.    Also 2016 is around the corner, thus if Obama polls take a dive in a 2nd term Democrats will want some distance, they will want ever further distance should VP Biden decide to run in 2016, that would be GOD send to the Republicans.  Both Reagan and Clinton had their supporters when they faced political oblivion, one has to ask will Obama.    The fact that ubera liberals have jumped on Obama after his disaster of a 1st debate shows that that the Obama support is very thin, and that they will run away should there be a major disaster in a 2nd Obama term.    The President will come out strong in the 2nd debate, its a town hall format, thus expect the Obama Team to drill Obama to fake like he is happy to be there, goes after Romney, but not like he needs prozac, like his VP.    The Oval should remember who jumped ship after the 1st debate, keep them close so they do not throw tea at the Oval tent. 

Obama vs. Romney - Sunday Polls

Lets have a look at the Sunday Polls folks.  These are the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls of likely   voters.  

Rasmussen Reports: In its poll today we have Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 47%, a 2% lead.

Gallup: Reports in its poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%, a 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have Rasmussen and Gallup having Romney on a 2% lead among likely voters.   As  stated this blog still gives the election to Obama, what will be interesting for this blog is if Obama has any coat tails, can he help the Democrats in the House and can he keep the Senate Democratic.    Also one could find the reverse of 2000, that Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral college.   This theory being on the assumption that Obama wins Ohio and and thus election but that Romney wins the popular vote.  This blog will postulate that it will be a long election night, even the Courts might come in to play, it did in 2000, not that it did much good for Al Gore.   In the 2nd debate expect POTUS to come back like Reagan in 84 and Bush 43 in 2004, the liberal base wants some fight.    The 2nd term Obama team have to play Libyagate scandal with care, no false evidence under oath, its always the cover up that kills not the original crime.   The Oval has already thrown Hillary Clinton under the bus, expect more of that, also that Senator Kerry might get the nod to be Secretary State, what a bore that will be to the press, someone who likes his own voice more that Obama.     Lets be honest Obama can not do any worse than his 1st debate.   Thus Obama win in second debate and 2nd term. 

Libyagate - Libyan Scandal

Guardian Live - Middle East: Reports that 2 former heads of security for the US mission in Libya have stated to  House Committee that the Hillary Clinton's State Department refused requests for more security for the US Consulate in Libya.  The blog post notes the following, " ..Republicans painted a picture of an incompetent state department failing to heed warnings of a growing terrorist threat....then covering up the circumstances of the full scale militia assault.. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

It seems that a 2nd man is going to throw Hillary Clinton under the bus, her husband was the first over his affair, he lied to her, now the Obama Oval needs someone to blame for the death of the US Ambassador in Libya.   Either the Clinton State Department on its own bat, decided the US Consulate in Libya did not need more security or the Oval placed pressure on the State not to send more Americans in to Libya in an election year.  Lets see if Bill Clinton is going to allow his wife to take the political bullet for Obama, if she does she is finished for 2016, her national security background would be in shreds.  Interesting story folks. 

Russia vs. Turkey - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that Putin Government in Russia wants a justification by Turkey for its interception of a civilian plane between Russia and Syria. 

Lets Get Real: 

This is just show folks, the Russians are NOW saying that there were no military equipment on the Russian plan, one can assume that the CIA told the Turks that the Russians were supplying their old ally from the days of the Cold War.   The Russians are playing a very risky game, Syrians are backed up by Russia and Iran, while if it comes down to it the Turks are members of NATO, and thus the US would have to support any threat to Turkey.   President Obama could not do a Kennedy and sell out Turkey as President Kennedy did in 1962 over the Cuban Missile Crisis.   Thus the Syrian Civil War has the risk of developing in a major regional War, which has global implications for the US and Russia. 

Syrian/Turkish Front - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Turkish Government has stated that a Russian Plan on route to Syria that it intercepted had military cargo on board. 

Lets Get Real:

The Putin Government will be going through the roof, MR KGB himself, President President will not be happy that its close ally Syria is not getting its support.  This will raise tensions between Syria and Turkey, they are already hot due to Syria shelling Turkey and Turkey responding, if this tension raises it could drag in NATO, and thus the US.   Lets hope the Oval is keeping a close eye on this crisis, better than it did with Libya.   This could turn in to nasty war very fast, it would be good way for the Assad Regime to unite Syria and to create the PR within Syria that the rebels are Western agents, thus lets see how this develops folks. 

Romney Leads Obama - New Poll

The Hill: Reports a new Public Policy Polling Poll, that finds that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus the debate bounce has lasted a few days, the debate was a walk over for Governor Romney, the press needed a close race folks, if the race was over with the 1st debate the media, Press, TV and Internet would not have a lot to write about.   Thus the News media in general needs a close race, the reporters have to justify their expenses in some manner, those bar bills are part of the job.    Thus if this blog is right the next round should go to Obama, and the Obama leads in the national polls and the States should return.   As stated this blog is no fan of POTUS but it looks at the empirical evidence and gives the reader its best logical result.   Nothing in the past few days has changed the mind of this blog. 

The Swing States - US Election

Lets have a look at the two most important Swing States in the 2012 race folks, these are Florida and Ohio.  

Lets have a look at the RCP poll averages for these States.

Ohio: 

In the RCP average of State Polls we have the following, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.5% to 47.8, a 0.7% lead.

Sidebar: POTUS has taken so many visits to Ohio he should buy a house there, he or the VP are there that often.   As Ohio is part of the old industrial states there are Unions on the ground that will help POTUS in November. 

Florida:

In the RCP average of the State Polls we have the following, Governor Romney leads President Obama by 48.0%  to 47.3%, a 0.7% lead. 

Sidebar: The Obama team can afford to lose Florida, as long as they pick up Ohio they WIN.   They have much more of an easier path to a 2nd term.    The Jewish vote in Florida because of the tensions between POTUS and Israel might swing the State to Romney.   Also there is the Cuban vote that on the whole does not trust Democrats when it comes to Cuba.   Thus lets give Florida to Romney but Ohio to Obama, thus a 2nd Obama term.