Thursday, October 01, 2015

Russia vs Western Supported Rebels - Syria Crisis

Telegraph - Syria Live: Reports " Rebel commander helped by CIA confirms being hit
Lets Get Real:
IF Russia is taking out Western supported rebels then the US HAS to act, Obama can not afford for another red line to be passed, the Russians are betting, and its a good bet that Obama does not have the steel in in his character to accept that he has been totally wrong about Syria since the start and he has to do something.   The Putin's Russia wants to make sure that Assad remains in power, that they keep their warm water port and that the West sees Russia as a counter balance to the US.  One can predict that Obama will do NOTHING, he does not have the nerve to take on Russia, thus another win for Putin and Assad. 


Corbyn and Trident - Corbyn Mania


Lets Get Real:

This is a prediction, Jeremy Corbyn will be gone by the end of 2016, the Labour Party Shadow Cabinet will not put up with a leader who will lose in 2020 and lose badly.   Jeremy Corbyn lives in his own bubble, he expects others to fall in line, debate as long as the debate goes his way.   Those Labour MP's on the moderate and right wing of the Labour Party should choose a new leader, and call for a fresh election for leader, it seems that Corbyn would still need 35 votes to get on the list.   Thus it can be expected he will fail and Labour would have a new leader by default.    The UK voter will not vote for a PM who will not defend the Realm, it is that simple. 










2nd Russian Strike in Syria - Syrian Crisis


Lets Get Real:

The Russian action in Syria is another complication, there are echoes of Afghanistan in this move, also if the US is right the the Russians are hitting Western trained forces, in other words the Russians are building up the Assad Regime by taking out his enemies one at time, the Western rebels are first, then followed by Daesh, the end result will be that Russian ground forces will be needed to back up the air attacks, that means Russian body bags, will the Russian people put up with that, the disaster of Afghanistan helped bring down the USSR.    The Putin Regime has hidden body bags from East Ukraine, Syria would be a different matter, what if IS catches a Russian Soldier and makes it public, how far will the Russian people support their President when Daesh has a history of violence against enemies.   It is easy to get in to  War, not so much to get out, we shall see with Russia in Syria. 

Monday, September 28, 2015

The Election that Labour Lost - Corbyn Mania


Lets Get Real:

The Labour Party is in a World of hurt, it can process the fact that it lost the last election big time, in fact it lost Seats from 2010, and during that time the Miliband team had moved Labour to centre left, the election of Jeremy Corbyn has moved the Labour Party off the cliff and in to haze that it might never return from, the article notes that the election of Corbyn is seen as more important, that shows how out of touch the Labour Party is, the UK voter when given a choice between  a left or right Party, chose the Conservative Party, they want to keep their own money, they want to pass that money to their children or grand children, they want a small State and they want the Unions under firm control.   The Labour Party faces being out of power for a generation, in that time good MP's will see their careers go down in flames and become ashes, they should recall those young Labour MPs's in 1979 who thought they would be back in power in a few years, they had to wait seventeen and a half years.   Thus one can expect those with ambition to move to other Parties, why become trench fodder for a Leader you do not support or even like, the Liberal Democrats or even Conservatives might get some defections. 

Labour and Syria - Syrian Crisis


Lets Get Real:

This time PM David Cameron has to win a vote on Syria, thus he will not go to the House of Commons in less he sure that he can get it through his own Party and with the support of Labour MPs.   The policy should be simple, air strikes on Daesh in Syria, but no US or UK ground troops for Syria, let the Russians have the body bags, also there needs an understanding that Assad can not be a long term part of the peace process, he must go in to exile, Moscow in winter is nice.   IF Russia and the US can get  deal on Syria it might open channels to back channel talks on a better relationship, as long as Russia does not teach those East Ukraine rebels how to create a dirty bomb, that would cause a serious problem in the 2nd Cold War.   Thus we wait to see if Obama and Putin can cut a deal, that benefits both. 

The Tax Hikes of Labour - Labour Party Conference


Lets Get Real:

The speech by the Shadow Chancellor was happy hour for the extreme left of the Labour Party, as stated in previous blog; if Labour wants a happy hour, hire a hooker, do not push your ideals on to voters that have rejected it, as in the  recent general election.   The BBC seems to be going out of its way to give the impression that Corbyn and Co are normal, they are from the extreme left, the majority of Labour MP's do not support them, and if they could throw them off a cliff they would do so in a minute.   Thus Labour is caught up in its own bubble, it thinks what it needs to keep its new supporters happy, news to these idiots, the young never vote on mass, in the 2015 general election this voter saw a lot of older voters voting, thus its £1 bet that the Conservatives would be the largest Party, even this blog did not see that the Conservatives would have a majority.   Thus its fun seeing a Political Party go over a cliff and not needing to be pushed. 


The Problem of Syria - Syrian Crisis


Lets Get Real:

The Russians main interest in keeping their warm water port in the Middle East, there secondary aim is to keep Assad in power, while the West has stepped back from wanting Assad to leave forthwith, they see him as a part of a prcess towards a peace deal.   The US and Russia need an official deal that allows them to fight Daesh, on background they could agree that Assad can be part of the peace talks but in the long term he has to go to Moscow to live.    The threat of Daesh is ever growing, they have to be removed before they create their own Country in the ashes of Syria and Iraq, the Russians should do the ground fighting, they do not fight according to the rules of War, in other words the ends do justify the means when it comes to Syria.   Lets hope the powers have not forgotten the deal of back channel deals.