The Obama Bounce and the Future

The Hill: Reports on the polls in the swing states, " Obama also has an advantage in most of the swing states that will be critical in determining the outcome of the election... ".

Lets Get Real:

Lets recall folks that Team Obama has outspent Romney/Ryan up to the Conventions, now the boot is on the other foot, on hand the Republicans have more money, also there are the Republican Super Pacs, thus its early to panic if your a Republican, the Obama bounce could have gone by Friday, what will be interesting is the polls in the swing States of Ohio and Florida over the next few weeks, lets see of the Romney negative adverts can take the race down back to level. If this blog thought Obama was going to win it would say so, it would not be happy but it would tell the reader, but its early folks. Also as noted this blog has some concern about these Polls in the States, there has been this blog has noticed, a over representation of Democrats and ethnic groups, thus one really has to dig down in these polls to see if they are fair. As Fox News noted, likely voter polls are more expensive to do that Registered voters, thus most polls tend to be Registered voters. That is not say they are wrong, the Gallup Poll of registered voters has Obama ahead by 5%, while Rasmussen Reports of likely voters has Obama ahead by 5%. More POLLS ahead folks.

Obama and the Polls

Telegraph Live - US: Reports the following in its 1.20pm post, " Several polls have Obama moving ahead of Mitt Romney, achieving the desired post-convention "bounce".

Lets Get Real:

This is the afterglow of the DNC folks, and more to do with the praised speech of the 1st Lady and President Clinton, the Obama speech was all TAX HIKES and BIG GOVERNMENT, also for Obama it got quite a critical mauling. Lets see the Polls by the end of the week, if your a Republican its not the time to lose your bottle, the fight has just started. The NEXT big event is the debates between President Obama and Governor Romney and the VP debate between Biden and Ryan. In the Obama and Romney clash the Republican nominee should just be himself, do not try to be a Reagan, your not, your not that funny, also do not be folksy like Bush 43, that is not YOU. Governor Romney has to define himself as a successful businessman, a man that can get the US out of its economic hole as he did for the winter Olympics. Romney should leave the rhetoric to Obama, keep it simple and to the point, let Obama talk class warfare while Romney appeals to the Middle Class. One would have to give the edge to Obama, but that was said of Senator Kerry in 2004 and he lost the debates to Bush 43. In the debates you can have a hollow victory, by presentation you win but you lose on substance, that was the failure of Gore in 2000. In 1980 the Carter camp wanted Reagan to be the nominee, they saw him as a easy walk over, that was a great mistake to make, the Republicans were in power for 12 years. In 1960 Nixon was seen as the best debater when it came down to Nixon vs Kennedy, but in the 1st debate of 1960 based on style reviews on the TV, the debate was WON by Kennedy, while on radio the debate was won by Nixon. But then it was the TV age, and Kennedy moved in to the Oval in 1961. Lets hope Romney does not over do it with this debate prep, that was the mistake made by the great Ronald Reagan in 1984, he was soundly beaten by VP Mondale and there were concerns about the age of the Gipper, but then in the 2nd debate Reagan was more rested and he destroyed Mondale with a joke. The race was over, even Mondale knew it, that is the importance of debates folks.

Obama vs. Romney - The Polls

Thus folks after the Conventions lets have a look at the Polls.

Rasmussen Reports: It today's tracking poll, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 49% to 45%.

Gallup: Reports in today's tracking poll that President Obama leads Governor Romney by 49% to 44%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks POTUS has gained 4% bounce from the DNC, as we are dealing with margins of error ( MofE) it is not something you would take to the bank. This bounce, if even a bounce will be erased by the new Romney adverts that will hit the swing states over the next few days. It has been noted that Team Romney has more cash in the bank than President Obama, that does not include the Republican Super Pacs will start to hit Ohio and Florida hard over the next few weeks. The election is down the swing states folks, Romney has to take Ohio and Florida for a chance at winning the White House. At present ALL the polls this blog has seen has Obama ahead by a narrow margin in these States, it easier for Obama to get to 270 electoral votes than Romney, well that is the Beltway logic. Its long time before November folks, it down to the TV adverts NOW and the TV Debates. Early Prediction, by logic of the Washington Beltway it would have to be Obama, they might be right, but lets not bet the house on it should we folks.

Dinosaurs on a Spaceship - Doctor Who Review

The Doctor Who News Page: The good Doctor gained 5.5 million views on Saturday ( overnight rating ). This was the top show on BBC 1 on Saturday, and the top drama of the day folks ( this blog shuns reality shows like a bad mad Dalek ). This was a fantastic episode folks, it was funny, had lines straight out 50 Shades, never thought I would see a threat of spanking on Doctor Who, and to a Queen of Egypt. It was about growing up, Amy worrying that the Time Lord was not turning up as often, a if the was trying to get distance between himself and the Ponds. Then there was the darkness, the brutal killing of a VERY nice dinosaur by Solomon the trader, of course the Doctor reacted to that and the throwing out of the airlock of the crew, the Doctor was Judge, Jury and Executioner, this was the dark Doctor. Having seen the Trial of a Time Lord, one can see how the the dark side of the Doctor came out. Also it was nice to see the wonder of Rory's father, just drinking tea over the planet earth, the rest of the crew have become a bit jaded or cynical, the Doctor and the Tardis ( even type 40, and stolen or borrowed ) is about wonder, its what out there folks, the wonder of Space.

ALSO good news, the total rating for Asylum of the Daleks has come out, the Doctor gained 8.33 million viewers for its 1st show of the new season.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the name of the UK Soldier that died in the UK on Friday of wounds sustained in Afghanistan, the Soldier was " Guardsman Karl Whittle of The Queen's Company, 1st Battalion Grenadier Guards ". Our thoughts are with the family of Guardsman Whittle.

The Morning Blues - US Unemployment

Guardian: Reports the following on the bad jobs news from the US, " The Democratic party's euphoria at the close of its party convention in Charlotte evaporated within hours.. ".

Lets Get Real.

Thus folks the election is now down to TV adverts, Obama and Romney hitting the swing states, then we have the debates, and in November which Party can get its voters out. The Debates as stated this blog will be crucial, can Romney pass the Presidential test, do voters want him on their TV for four years, this was the test for Ronald Reagan in 1980, Reagan passed and served eight years as US President. The test for President Obama is can US voters face another four years of Obama, it can be argued that the White House put POTUS out to much, he was everywhere, lets be honest politicians can grate if you have to put up with them ever day on the TV. Interesting two months ahead folks if your a political geek, if your normal, head for the bat cave, your sanity will be tested, political adverts, 24/7, in the swing States politicians every other day, YES FOLKS, it will be that bad. That the fun part about Democracy folks, it never ends.

The Friday Hangover - US Unemployment

Telegraph: Reports the following on jobs created in August in the US, " ..96,000 new jobs in August, a figure that was well below economists’ expectations. ".

Lets Get Real:

On one level the fall of the US unemployment rate to 8.1% is good for Team Obama, the major problem is the fact that over three hundred and sixty thousand Americans just gave up looking for a job because there are no jobs. Thus the fall will swamp the Obama speech from last night, this might not be a bad thing, the Telegraph notes the following on the speech, " The subdued address was described as “workmanlike” by pundits on both sides of the political divide,..". If you think the Government is the solution and tax hikes always work then you will have liked the speech, if your REAL PERSON and live in the REAL WORLD, you know different, liberals or Labour always spend other peoples money and then leave a mess, Obama is NO Bill Clinton, at least Clinton was a policy geek, while Obama just thinks his own rhetoric is real. Lets see what the polls are like after a few days folks, will Team Obama get a bounce from the DNC, time will tell folks.