Spanish Bailout, Not IF but WHEN - Eurozone Crisis

Telegraph: Reports on the growing concern about Spain after the 2nd Greek election, the article notes the following, " Fears were also mounting about the health of the Spanish economy. A full-scale bail-out now appears increasingly likely. "

Lets Get Real:

A few hours after the 2nd Greek Election and the successful campaign of New Democracy we see Spanish Bonds remain at the 7% mark. The Markets took a dim view of the 100 billion euro bailout of the Spanish banks as this just added to the debt, also the bonds markets do not want to hold Spanish bonds if they are the last to get paid at the end of the day. Thus the Kingdom of Spain will need a Sovereign bailout, there will have to be tough strings, the local regional governments will have to be told that for a time they are no longer in charge of their budgets. This will go down like a lead balloon, but the EU has to be firm, as with Greece the EU will have to send in regulators to run the Spanish economy, the Spanish Budget will have to be approved by the EU and Germany. That is the only way that Germany will bailout Spain, also the German Chancellor has made it clear, the Greeks have to follow the austerity deal, tense days ahead folks.

President Obama's Job Approval and the Polls

Interesting folks, lets have a look at the job approval polls for POTUS, as usual we will go with the experts.

Job Approval Polls:

Gallup ( Adult Voters ): The tracking poll today has President Obama on 46% Approval, while 47% of Adult Americans Disapprove of the Obama record.

Rasmussen Reports ( Likely Voters ): Reports today that President Obama has a 46% Approval rating, while 53% of likely voters disapprove of the Obama record.

Lets Get Real:

Yes its early folks, but the Chicago Re-Elect Committee should be worried if POTUS stays on 46%, if this trends last then POTUS will join a very exclusive club, one term Presidents who failed to get re-elected. Lets not get ahead of our self's folks, the Chicago Re-Elect and its liberal supporters have not really started to throw their millions at negative adverts that will attempt to define Governor Romney, on the hand the Oval needs some good news on the domestic front, it can not afford for US Unemployment to go up again, if the Congressional Budget Office was right with its prediction that US unemployment will go up to 9% by November then the Oval is toast, that simple, the Oval will be dreading each month's stats , up and the Oval has a tough fight, down then its got a message, not a great message but least a clear message, don't change horses mid stream, its a very old political message, but you deal with what you have, that is politics 101.

Obama vs. Romney - The Polls

Lets have a break from the economic collapse in the EU, lets have a look at the 2012 race in the US.

Tracking Polls:

Rasmussen Reports ( likely voters ): Reports today in its tracking poll that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 47% to 44%, a 3% lead.

Gallup ( registered voters ): Reports today in its tracking poll that President Obama and Governor Romney are tied at 46%.

Lets Get Real:

One can postulate that both Campaign will not be unhappy with today's tracking result, neither is down enough to cause panic, both are about tied. The negative for both Campaigns is that neither has defined the other so far. The Romney Campaign has failed to define POTUS as a tax and spend liberal. While the Oval has failed to define Governor Romney as a ruthless businessman who does not understand main street. It can be argued that both Campaigns are waiting for the US Supreme Court to rule on ObamaCare, then one would expect the Campaigns to hit a higher gear. One has to be impressed with the Court, they have not leaked so far, they are doing the right thing, but a tease would be nice, its the waiting that is getting boring.

The Future for Syriza - Greek Election Result

Guardian Live - Greece: Reports the following in its 8.09pm post, " ..Syriza may be planning to mount a strong opposition rather than wait to see if New Democracy can form a coalition government. Even if it fails. ".

Lets Get Real:

In pure political terms it is the right thing for Syriza to do, why get the blame in a Coalition Government when you can wait in till the next General Election, and that could be in under a year and then win outright at that election. The ND will find it hard to get other Greek Parties to come on board, the EU might be relaxed about timings of the austerity deal but not the deal itself, the Germans have made that clear. This Greek crisis is not over folks, nothing is ever that simple with the Greeks. The Markets should be steady over the next week, it will be interesting to see the bond rates of Spain and Italy, this election could bring them down for a time, thus less pressure on political leaders, lets see folks,

Germany and Greece

Telegraph Live Greece: Reports in its 7.17pm post the the German Finance Minister, Guido Westerwelle has stated that the core of the deal between Greece and the EU can not be change.

Lets Get Real:

This win by ND might just delay the day the Greece has to leave the Euro, from Greece it is reported that the win by ND was down to older voters, as the Sunday Times reported today Greece has massive youth unemployment, thus one can see a violent reaction when the Government follows through with the agreed deal between Greece and the EU/IMF/ECB. Also it has to be asked how long with the ND government last, if it can not get other Greek Parties to come on board, it will take a massive hit when its cuts the welfare state of Greece and starts to sell off the assets of Greece. The Unions have done a good job of blocking these policies, ND needs some left wing cover for its Government to last, who will take this risky offer, interesting days ahead in Greece folks.

Greek Election Result

BBC News - Greece Live: Reports on the result of the Greek General Election, New Democracy gained 29.5%, Syriza 27.1% and Pasok 12.3%.

Lets Get Real:

It seems from reports from Greece that New Democracy wants the other Parties to form a National Government, the reply seems a big NO, the new radical left wing Party Syriza wants to be the official Opposition, while the old mainstream left wing Party Pasok will also not go in to Government, but will support ND in the Greek Parliament. In other words ND will push through the harsh austerity measures and will get destroyed in the next General Election. The Syriza Party will get none of the blame but all the benefit, while the Pasok Party will lick its self inflicted wounds. That is democracy folks.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the name of the UK Soldier that was killed on Friday in Afghanistan, the Soldier was " Corporal Alex Guy, of the 1st Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment ". Our thoughts are with the family of Corporal Guy.