US Senate Committee Passes WAR Resolution - Syria Crisis 3

BBC News: Reports that US Senate Foreign Relations Committee has passed the Syrian War Resolution by 10 - 7.  The Resolution allows President Obama to have a 90 day War but with no ground troops. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks lets see how the White House operation is when it comes to getting votes on the Hill, by its past record not great, but with Senator McCain on board it should be easier to get the Senate to pass the Resolution, also some House Republicans should also come across,  Republicans might not trust President Obama, but when it comes to the matter of WAR it is hard to argue with the the Vietnam War hero Senator McCain.   But as stated a NO vote is safe for Republicans and a lot of liberal Democrats, thus the Oval has its work cut out, its not over folks, far from it, more arms need to be twisted folks, that is politics. 

McCain and the Syrian War - Syria Crisis 2

Guardian - US/Syria Live: Reports in its 8.08pm post on two amendments by Senator McCain to the US Senate's Syria Resolution, the post states the following, " The changes would seem to expand – perhaps significantly – the scope of the prospective American military campaign. In particular the second amendment flatly states "It is the policy of the United States to change the momentum on the battlefield in Syria.".

Lets Get Real:

Thus if the Congressional resolution is tough the Oval will need more Republicans, the liberal base of the Democratic Party will not support a long term War, after Iraq and Afghanistan the US voter and parts of the US political establishment is very tired of constant war, the hard struggle will be in the House, its safe for House Republicans to vote NO, the Party base does not trust the Oval, also there is mistrust that the Oval will not follow through with any promises on Syrian policy.  On the Democratic side extreme liberals and those that oppose any military action will come under pressure not to vote yes, as the left thinks that the US should be building at home not abroad.    We shall see if the White House can count better than UK PM Cameron.   

The World of Obama and Reality - Syria Crisis

Today President Obama in Sweden stated the following, " First of all, I didn’t set a red line; the world set a red line.  The world set a red line when governments representing 98 percent of the world’s population said the use of chemical weapons are abhorrent and passed a treaty forbidding their use even when countries are engaged in war. 

Congress set a red line when it ratified that treaty.  Congress set a red line when it indicated that -- in a piece of legislation titled the Syria Accountability Act -- that some of the horrendous things that are happening on the ground there need to be answered for.

And so when I said in a press conference that my calculus about what’s happening in Syria would be altered by the use of the chemical weapons, which the overwhelming consensus of humanity says is wrong, that wasn’t something I just kind of made up.  I didn’t pluck it out of thin air.  There’s a reason for it.  That’s point number one.

Point number two -- my credibility is not on the line.  The international community’s credibility is on the line.  And America and Congress’s credibility is on the line because we give lip service to the notion that these international norms are important. ".

Either President Obama is having a memory lapse or he thinks the rest of the WORLD is thick, you never say something that is NOT TRUE and is on film.   You do not play about with foreign policy, those Republicans in the House who might think of voting for the Syrian resolution will now wonder if Obama is serious about taking action, or is seeking to shift the blame if Syria goes wrong.  The above words could have cost the Oval a Syrian Resolution passed by Congress. 

Obama and the Polls - Syria Crisis 4

RCP: Reports on the average of President Obama's poll rating, today President Obama has a  " 43.6% job approval rating, while 50.4% disapprove of the job performance of the Oval. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus not great folks, but not a disaster, the problem is that President Obama has to spend his political capital on Syria, there are other fights to come, from protecting funding for ObamaCare, to immigration, to the US Debt ceiling.   The President will hope Syria goes well, that Assad does not strike, Israel, Jordan or Turkey, that Syria does not become a political mess for the Oval to deal with, its the one War that the Oval can not blame on Bush 43.  The less popular a US President is folks, the less influence he has on the Hill, of course we have the 2014 Mid Terms coming, the Democrats had hopes of retaking the House, that seems off the table, the Republicans might even retake the US Senate, thus the Oval will be hoping for a fair wind next year, that Syria calms down, that ObamaCare works, that the US economy starts to run up and not down, lot of IF's folks, that the fun of US politics folks. 

The CIA to the Rescue - Syria Crisis 3

Telegraph: Reports the following from Washington D.C, " The first cell of Syrian rebels trained and armed by the CIA is making its way to the battlefield, President Barack Obama has reportedly told senators. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is good news folks, the Oval and the CIA has finally gotten of their backside and done something, the BAD news is that they have leaked this information, one can assume the Assad Regime is reading ALL the Western press, one would assume the forces of Assad is after this cell the moment they arrive in Syria.   Lets recall the President Kennedy's Bay of Pigs mess in Cuba, once a covert operation becomes overt the balloon goes up on the other side, thus surprise is lost,  Reagan had problems with the Contra freedom fighters when it came to Congress, thus folks the problems of using covert means to gain a overt policy gain.   Lets see what else the Oval and the CIA does, lets hope they can keep a secret, thus far not impressed at all with this covert operation. 

Assad OUT, Obama Strategy - Syria Crisis 2

Guardian: Reports the following from Washington D.C.," Obama hints at larger strategy to topple Assad in effort to win over Republicans ".

Lets Get Real:

This will go down well with national security Republicans, not so well with liberal Democrats, thus the Oval will need more Republican votes in the House to counter liberal opposition.   This move will go down like a lead balloon with Russia, they need the Assad Regime to last as they do not want to lose their warm water port.   Thus folks a limited strike is turning in to major build up of the opposition, well the good rebels, and punch on the nose from the US is turning in to a long term bombing policy if the Oval is not careful.   As this blog and others have said, there are BAD and WORSE options when it comes to Syria, the Oval will spend so much political capital on Syria that it can not afford to leave it alone after the 1st strike, it will become very much Obama's War, a War of choice folks, lets hope he has the grace to say sorry to Bush 43 after all of the years of attack for Iraq and Afghanistan.  This blog is not holding its breath. 

Obama and the US House - Syria Crisis

BBC News: Reports that that the leadership IN both Republican and Democratic Parties support President Obama's call for a strike on Syria. 

Lets Get Real:

In this case the Republicans should support the Oval, it will take a great effort not to vote NO, just to shove Syria up the ego of the Oval, but Obama does not matter, the image and authority of the US and Oval matters, the US Congress has to clean up the mess of the Oval, this means even supporting a War.   The question is WHAT NEXT? If the leadership of the House and Senate are on board, can they bring their troops, can they march them up that HILL and get them to vote, it will take a lot of arm twisting, one wonders what the leadership will demand from the Oval as a price, there is always a price folks.  The strike on Syria should be limited, balanced, and a one off, how you do this and degrade the WMD of Assad is another matter, lets hope the US and France are up to the job, and that they get it right folks.