Israel HITS Iran - Update

BBC News: Reports in 6.00am post the following, " Israel launches retaliatory strikes on Iran "

Let's Get Real:

The White House will not be happy, in fact Trump will be furious, but it will SHOW Trump he does not hold the ALL the cards.  TRUMP cannot afford to annoy the Israeli lobby in the US before the Mid Terms.  In will be interesting to see how the day develops, many Presidents have had Middle East follies, how will Trump come back!

Iran 's condition for ENDING the US War - Update

Fox News: Reports the following, " Iran war ‘will end only when it ends in Lebanon as well,’ foreign minister says "

Let's Get Real:

The Tehran Regime is playing Trump, they can see the War is not popular with the American people and the Democrats are playing games with the War Powers Act, Trump wants out but cannot control Israel, conditional blank cheques are still blank, in less enforce your will, Reagan did when Israel was bombing Beirut in the 1980s.  Trump can not afford to lose the Israeli lobby is the US before the Mid Terms. DEADLOCK in the Middle East.

Iran Threatens Ceasfire - Update

Sky News: Reports in its 3.23pm post the following, " Tehran will withdraw from ceasefire if attacks on Lebanon continue - Iranian state media "

Let's Get Real:

This will be hard one for Trump to deal with, Israel has made it clear that its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon is separate.  LAST YEAR, Trump ordered Israel planes back while they were in mid flight.  Does he have the same power now.  The CEASFIRE between the US and Iran is fragile, also the Israeli lobby is powerful in the US, can the Oval blackmail Israel this time? The post is an interesting development!

Update: Reports from the Guardian that President Trump has stated that Lebanon was not part of Ceasefire deal.  The President must be thinking of the November Mid Terms.  This statement means that Trump cannot pressure Israel to stop bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran states that Israel has declared WAR- Trump's

Guardian: Reports in its 10.41am post that Iran has stated that Israel has declared WAR.

Lets Get Real:

The Iranian reaction has been feeble or no reaction, there were Reports that Iran had launched a 100 Drones towards Israel, as of now nothing, either Iran's defences are great or Tehran might be still hoping that the US will place pressure on Israel to back off.  The Trump Oval has to be careful, the Trump base is full of Israeli supporters, they expect when push comes to shove, that Trump will support Israel.

Israeli PM and President Biden Speak over the phone - Middle East Crisis - Biden Era

White House: Has a readout of the telephone call between President Biden and the Israeli PM on the death of  Yahya Sinwar, " Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel...President Biden spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel to congratulate him on the mission conducted in Gaza that killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu also discussed how to use this moment to bring the hostages home and to bring the war to a close with Israel’s security assured and Hamas never again able to control Gaza. They agreed to remain in close contact over the coming days both directly and through their national security teams. "

Lets Get Real:

Neither leader can stand each other, they put up with each other because they have too, it seems that the chat was brief, the White House wants to end the war in Gaza and get the hostages back before the election, that might not be the Israeli plan, both believe they have each other in the palm of the their hand, the White House can always stop military supplies to Israel, while Israel has actual troops on the ground in Gaza, and Lebanon and will strike Iran soon.  Any Biden move to stop supplies to Israel would be stopped by the US Congress and the fame of the Israeli lobby is not a joke.   Thus Israel at the moment has the power, while Biden can only watch on. 

Israel ready for immediate invasion of Lebanon- Middle East Crisis - Biden Era

 Sky News  Reports in its 3.47pm post that the Israeli Government has told the US that an immediate invasion of Lebanon is about to happen.

Lets Get Real:

This will not go down well the Biden Oval, POTUS wants a 21 day ceasefire, it will place VP Harris behind 8 ball, does she follow the Oval line or be either be more critical or supportive of Isrsel.  Former President Trump is going for the Jewish vote and thus more supportive of Isrsel.   The VP is worries about the Swing States and the ethnic vote. Is this an October surprise thar has become the norm in most recent elections.

VP Harris has a 4% LEAD over Trump in new CBS Poll - 2024 Candidates/2024 General Election - Biden Era

The Hill: Reports " Nationally, Harris has a 4-point lead, with 52 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent, the survey found. "

Lets Get Real:

The Harris campaign has risen more money that Trump, it needs to spend it on the SWING STATES, more adverts, more structure on the ground.  In 2000 and 2016 the Democrat win the popular vote but lost the ELECTORAL COLLEDGE vote, thus is could happen again, the Harris Campaign needs more lawyers on the ground, to make sure that their voters can get to the polls.   Then there is the October surprise what if Israel invades Lebanon, what will the Biden Administration do, its getting that close in the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.   Will the Biden Oval be critical of the Israeli State or support it, it can lose a few of the SWING STATES if it it not critical of ISRAEL, ALSO the other way around, it could lose the Jewish vote if it critical of Israel.

Thus 43 days to go, it could be a pretty close election, get the popcorn and drinks out for election night.  

Israeli - Gaza War Update - Middle East Crisis - Biden Era

CNN: Reports " Blinken says Israel has agreed to Gaza withdrawal terms in ‘bridging proposal,’ despite reported comments from Netanyahu "

Lets Get Real:

The Israeli PM knowns that neither Biden or his VP will place pressure on Israel this close to an election.   The Israeli Lobby is not feared for nothing, if POTUS cut ISRAEL adrift the would make the expected chance of his VP winning and making his legacy look better and flush it down the toilet.  POTUS is already in the club of Presidential losers who only served one term, by either losing an election not running for a 2nd term.   Thus POTUS needs VP HARRIS to win, for his own sake and for the security of the US and Western Europe.   On the other side HAMAS might think they are winning, they saw the protesters on the various University campuses around the US over the Israeli policy of POTUS.   They want more concessions from Israel, and that is something that the Israeli Government cannot do, it was shocked by the attack on the 7th October last year, they need security as to prevent other attacks, there are limits how far they will go with this PM.   The weekend will be interesting, if no attacks from Iran then the US will now that Hamas does not have the support of Tehran, and thus might come back to talks after more killing in the Gaza. 

Biden's PLAN for Gaza Ceasefire - Israeli - Gaza Plan - Biden Era

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports on its 7.08pm post " 

What is Biden's three-phase plan?...

The three-phase plan involves the return of Israeli hostages from Gaza and reconstruction of civilian areas.  "

Lets Get Real:

This plan came out of blue, is it a REAL PLAN, does the Israeli Government support the plan, is this an attempt by Biden so secure his left base at the expense of Israel.  It will be interesting to see what Israel DOES, not what they say, does the WAR in Gaza go on, what does the Biden Oval do if ISRAEL says NO, its not their backyard for the US and Europe.  After 9/11 in the US, the US did not have talks with Al Qaeda is, while Israel is expect to have talks with HAMAS.   All Biden cares about is the November election, in way that is the right mind set, he has to what it takes to beat Trump, the former President and felon is still a THREAT.  The US and the World might get the lucky and the Judge in the case puts Trump in jail.  The World awaits the sentence in New York.

Biden to defend Israel if ATTACKED by IRAN - Middle East - Biden Era

Guardian: Reports " Biden vows ‘ironclad’ US commitment to Israel amid fears of Iran attack.....US president and allied officials fear ‘significant’ strike within days in retaliation for Israeli bombing of consular building in Damascus  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog will bet that Iran will not strike Israel with a direct missile from Iran, that would mean ALL BET ARE OFF, Israel would counter any strike, with a strike on Iran, let's recall ISRAEL hit Iraq's nuclear site in 1981 and did the same with Syria in recent years.   Also let's recall that Israel has the BOMB, it could wipe out Iran if it wanted too, or if Iran become a MAJOR THREAT to Iran.   POTUS has to say the above, he has stabbed Israel in the back over its war in Gaza.   This blog could be wrong, it is not unknown, a terrorist attack on an Embassy is more likely, enough to hurt Israel, but without giving them reason to attack Iran Itself.  The Tehran Regime is not stupid or suicidal at the present. 

Domestic Pressure changes US position on Gaza - Biden Era - Candidates2024/General Election

Sky News: Reports " UN Security Council passes resolution demanding Gaza ceasefire - as US abstains...The US abstained from the proposal, which also called for the immediate release of hostages and the expansion of aid into Gaza. "

Lets Get Real:

The sole reason the Biden Oval changed its position is due to internal politics of the US and the Democratic base, as of the last Poll, Biden and Trump were even in Michigan and Trump was ahead in Wisconsin, two States with large Arab blocks who are not happy with the Biden Foreign Policy when it comes to Israel and Gaza.  Thus for short term gain Biden has nearly destroyed the relationship between Israel, let's recall there is a large Jewish lobby in the US, what to think of Biden destroying the relationship with Israel, it will be interesting to se the polls over the next few days, is it canny move by Biden, or a career ender?  It's only March, we have months of theses kind of events.