Friday, February 20, 2015

Is Hillary Clinton the " New Nixon " - 2016 Election


Lets Get Real:

As noted in the article few US politicians  want to be compared to tricky Dicky Nixon.   But in this case one can see the argument, Nixon lost his bid for Presidency in 1960 and then in 62 lost his bid to be Governor of California.  In the case of Hillary Clinton she was the front runner for the 2008 Democratic nomination, but lost to then Senator Obama, after that she become his Secretary of State, that could cause problems in the 2016 race if the Obama record does not improve when it comes to the Middle East and Russia.  Thus far the Clinton Camp face no REAL threats to her getting the nomination, VP Biden is a joke and Senator Warren does not want to go up against the Clinton machine, that shows some clever politics, she could be trying out for the VP spot, two women running would be a bold move by the Democrats.   The liberal elite media are throwing their political arrows at the Republicans, they are doing the job for the Democrats, thus when HRC does get in to the race she will look fresh, will have the left wing media on her side, thus far wise tactics by the Clinton Camp. 

You can keep the your Trojan Horse Greece -Germany - Greek Crisis


Lets Get Real:

Thus you have two views of the Greek crisis, that Greece has won by pushing the issue down the road, will the EU really go through this again if Greece does not meet the demands of the the EU, does Germany want another battle that keeps the issue on the table, it does not want to see the other Countries who have had economic support request a better deal.   It appears that Greece has lost, but there is always a but when it comes to the EU, how will the new Greek PM sell the deal, can he sell the deal to the Greek people, will the Germans make sure that their voters know that they did not give an inch on their demands.   Thus a typical EU fudge, there will be another crisis, there is always. 

After all the Shouting its over, Greece wins - Greek Crisis


Lets Get Real: If the Germans have been tough it is because they do not want to deal with the other Countries who have had economic support coming back and requesting a better deal.  The deal sounds like a fudge, the economic support for Greece will only last for four months, not the six the new Greek Government wanted, also they have to develop a plan by monday to reduce the role of the State in Greeks affairs.   It easy to promise things on the campaign trail, when your in Office its quite different, lets see if Ed Miliband learns that lesson before the May General Election. 

Greek Bailout Deal - Greek Crisis


Lets Get Real:

It seems that we have the typical Euro fix, it will be complicated and you will have to read the small print to see who has won, one can postulate that the left wing Greek Government has moved enough that it allows Germany to say that the EU is following in the lines of the past agreement while getting the fact that the Greek people have elected a new government.   This will be a short term fix, it will not solve the problem, the spending of the Southern Countries of the EU will cause more problems for Germany and the EU.   In it can be argued that Greece has won, it called the bluff of Germany, there will be others, Ireland, Spain and Italy.   

Thursday, February 19, 2015

At what point do the Greek Banks go bust - Greek Crisis


Lets Get Real:

The Germans are standing tough on the bailout structure for Greece, they do not see why the German taxpayer should pay for the left wing promises of a left wing Government, Berlin should demand that the Greeks keep to past promises, otherwise other left wing Parties in Europe will make the same promises to get in to power and expect the Northern rich countries to pay for the left wing polices of Southern Countries.    The EU can not have fiscal union without political union, different tax rates and welfare structures will cause internal trouble and sooner not later, and cause the Euro to be called in to question and the EU.   The EU can not remove political reality, if Spain or Italy go bust it is ALL OVER, it is that simple.  The Germans in this case should find their inner Prussian and stand tough. 

Ukraine Latest - Ukraine Crisis


Lets Get Real:

A Cold ceasefire with the odd hot flashpoint might be the best deal for the West and Russia, the question is can President Putin keep his nose out of the Baltic States and Poland.   The Kremlin has seen the West weak and seeking to appease Russia,  what if they try to get the Russian minority in Baltic States to push for closer links with Russia, what if they send soldiers and tanks to help the Russians in the Baltic States, that is the most important line in this crisis, this would force the West to ACT, even with military support, the Baltic States are part of NATO, and its one basic line is, an attack on one is an attack on all, does the Kremlin still get that or does it think it can push and get the Baltic States back, like they have gotten the Crimea and East Ukraine.   The Ukraine Crisis is the most important crisis facing the US and the West, followed by IS.    The West has to find its backbone and deal with both. 

Greek Crisis Latest - Greek Crisis


Lets Get Real:

The Greek crisis is showing seeds of mistrust between Germany and the EU, the EU elite want to keep Greece in the Euro at any cost, the problem is that they want the German taxpayer to pay for the political promises of a left wing Greek Government.   The problem for Berlin is that if they let Greece off the hook they will have Ireland, Italy, Spain asking for the same benefits, that means printing more money, and you get Weimar Germany on a bigger scale.    The Germans have to stand firm, even be seen as hard, the small tail of Greece can not run the EU or it is finished.