Sunday, October 04, 2015

The UK and Syrian Strikes - Conservative Conference


Lets Get Real:

The UK should be careful about getting to a arms contest with the Russians,  the Syrian mess is complex, you have Russians planes with Syrian planes hitting any rebel that is a threat to Assad, while the US and its allies are hitting Daesh targets, while supporting moderate in Syria.   What happens if moderate rebels supported by the US are attacked and the US air force is close by, do they watch, do they send a warning to the Russian planes, do they take action.   The blog is very much a hawk, but one should always see what the next step is, it only takes a drunk Russian with missiles to shoot down a Western plane, then you have  a crisis, that even President Obama can not waffle out of.   The Syrian policy needs caution. 

Tax Credits - Conservative Party Conference


Lets Get Real:

The bill for tax credits is 30 BILLION, the New Labour Government under Tony Blair bought tax credits in to existence due to lie, as Tony Blair stated to Alastair Campbell the Treasury cooked the books as to the cost of tax credits, it went from millions to billions.   At its heart it allows mean employers to hire workers on the cheap and then for the government to fund them, the welfare state was not meant for such policies.   The UK Government has to keep to its reform, make work pay, even increase the living wage, so people are not out of pocket.   The general election of 2015 showed that people understand that the government can not print money forever, at some time it has to be paid back, thus the austerity reform of the present government.  

Doctor Who Review - Under the Lake


Lets Get Real:

This was a cracking episode, the Doctor and ghosts, it was nice seeing Clara wanting to more adventure, while it was the Doctor who was more cautious, it also allowed for great guest stars, also this might be first for Doctor Who, an actor with  a disability such as deafness actually played by a deaf actress.   There ghosts do have a sci fi answer, but this blog does not to do spoilers, lets just say it has to do with signals.   Also the episode was 1/2, is the Doctor get killed in the past, one has doubts, its far to early for a regeneration.   As stated before the relationship is great between the Doctor and Clara, a Mentor and his student  who likes monsters. 

Thursday, October 01, 2015

The Russian Front in Syria - Syrian Crisis


Lets Get Real:

The manner of how the Russians told the US about the strikes is an example  their low opinion of President Obama, a Russian General turned up at the Embassy in Baghdad and informed the US that they should keep out of Syrian air space as they would be attacking within a hour.   The Russians after the fall of the USSR are looking to gain the old place of the USSR in the international community, and Putin is a dictator, thus he is trying to force the West to support Assad against Daesh and his other enemies, the West has make it clear that they see no future for Assad in power after peace talks.    The Russian moves in Crimea, East Ukraine and now Syria see Putin placing bets that Obama will never react, he has shown total non understanding of the Middle East, he has made a BAD deal with Iran, and the US allies are not happy.   The question is will Syria be the modern Iraq for the Russians. 

Russia vs Western Supported Rebels - Syria Crisis

Telegraph - Syria Live: Reports " Rebel commander helped by CIA confirms being hit
Lets Get Real:
IF Russia is taking out Western supported rebels then the US HAS to act, Obama can not afford for another red line to be passed, the Russians are betting, and its a good bet that Obama does not have the steel in in his character to accept that he has been totally wrong about Syria since the start and he has to do something.   The Putin's Russia wants to make sure that Assad remains in power, that they keep their warm water port and that the West sees Russia as a counter balance to the US.  One can predict that Obama will do NOTHING, he does not have the nerve to take on Russia, thus another win for Putin and Assad. 


Corbyn and Trident - Corbyn Mania


Lets Get Real:

This is a prediction, Jeremy Corbyn will be gone by the end of 2016, the Labour Party Shadow Cabinet will not put up with a leader who will lose in 2020 and lose badly.   Jeremy Corbyn lives in his own bubble, he expects others to fall in line, debate as long as the debate goes his way.   Those Labour MP's on the moderate and right wing of the Labour Party should choose a new leader, and call for a fresh election for leader, it seems that Corbyn would still need 35 votes to get on the list.   Thus it can be expected he will fail and Labour would have a new leader by default.    The UK voter will not vote for a PM who will not defend the Realm, it is that simple. 










2nd Russian Strike in Syria - Syrian Crisis


Lets Get Real:

The Russian action in Syria is another complication, there are echoes of Afghanistan in this move, also if the US is right the the Russians are hitting Western trained forces, in other words the Russians are building up the Assad Regime by taking out his enemies one at time, the Western rebels are first, then followed by Daesh, the end result will be that Russian ground forces will be needed to back up the air attacks, that means Russian body bags, will the Russian people put up with that, the disaster of Afghanistan helped bring down the USSR.    The Putin Regime has hidden body bags from East Ukraine, Syria would be a different matter, what if IS catches a Russian Soldier and makes it public, how far will the Russian people support their President when Daesh has a history of violence against enemies.   It is easy to get in to  War, not so much to get out, we shall see with Russia in Syria.