Saudi Arabia and Iran - Yemen Update 3 - Yemen Crisis

CNN - Politics:Reports " The Saudi Ambassador to the United States would not rule out the possibility of the Saudis creating their own nuclear bomb to counterbalance a nuclear-armed Iran "

Lets Get Real:

This is a clear threat to the Obama Administration, if Obama does a bad with with Iran then the Sunni Gulf States will start to make sure they are secure, and the only way to make sure your safe is to have a nuclear missile yourself.   Lets recall SA has the money to buy a nuclear weapon or get the best people on board to allow SA to develop a bomb faster.   The US Congress has to ACT, it should make sure that the Obama deal comes to Congress before the UN, if the Oval says not then the Congress should pass an Act of Congress to force him, one doubts that Democrats will want to see Iran with the bomb, Obama will be gone in 2017, and Dems will want support from the Israeli  Lobby, this US/Iran deal has a long way to go before it comes in to force, all politics is local. 

Yemen Update 2 - Yemen Crisis

BBC News: Reports " In addition to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco and Sudan are contributing aircraft to "Operation Storm of Resolve", while Egypt, Jordan and Sudan were ready to take part in any ground offensive, Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV reported on Wednesday. "

It would be ironic if after Yemen these forces joined a secret deal with Israel to attack Iran's nuclear buildings, this could happen if the Obama Oval keeps going down it road to appease Iran.   As stated by this blog, President Obama is the modern Neville Chamberlain, a politician meaning well but who dragged the World in to World War 2, it would not shock this blog if Obama causes a regional war in the Middle East, with the the Shiites and Sunnis having a regional war and a arms race, it could be argued that SA could buy a nuclear missile on the black market, then we would see the other States run to get such missiles.  President Obama has shown how a well meaning man can cause mass problems and deaths by thinking he can solve problems that have been around for Centuries. 

Yemen Update - Yemen Crisis

Guardian: Reports " US defends strategy in Yemen and Iraq but diplomats admit: it's a mess..Intervention in Yemen, where Houthi rebels were attacked with the backing of Washington, appears at odds with support for pro-Iranian forces in Iraq "

Lets Get Real:

AS noted in this blog the politics of the Middle East are murky and ironic, if your a main street voter in the US you must be thinking WTF just happened, on side of the Yemen Civil War you have Saudi Arabia supported by the US going to invade Yemen to prevent a Tehran supporting group taken power, while in Iraq the US is providing semi air cover for Iraqi forces and groups that belong to Iran.   It should be noted as the London Times reported this morning that because the new Iraqi government has requested US air support for the battle for Tikirt the Iran's forces have withdrawn in a sulk.   On top of that at the strategic level, Tehran and the US are dealing on a nuclear agreement, that is not supported by Israel and the Sunni Gulf States.   It will be interesting to comment on the coming events over the next few days, who will win and who will retreat. 

US/Iran vs. IS in Iraq - Iraq Crisis

Fox News: Reports " US conducting airstrikes to help Iraqi forces retake Tikrit "

Lets Get Real:

As this blog has noted, the politics of the Middle East can be murky and ironic, so now US air planes are attacking IS targets in Tikrit in support of Iran's forces in Iraq.    The Tehran Regime and the Baghdad Regime started the battle for Tikrit without asking for US cover, they thought they could do it on their own.   The battle has stalled, Iraqi and Iran forces have seen many of their troops killed by IS, thus this call to the US for support.   Also this could be a strategic win for Obama, now that Iran needs US support is the time to pressure them when it comes to their nuclear ambitions, in other words get a better deal.   The Republicans will go with this issue, and most Americans will be wondering, what happened, Iran has supported terrorists that have killed many US troops, and now the US air force is their cover.  MURKY AND IRONIC. 

Israel vs. US - Middle East Crisis

The New York Times: Reports " Israeli analysts are now suggesting that Mr. Obama and his aides might be overplaying their hand, inviting a backlash of sympathy for Mr. Netanyahu, and that they may not have clearly defined what they expected to gain diplomatically by continuing to pressure the Israeli leader. "

Lets Get Real:

IF the uber liberal NYT is reporting this, it means that the Obama Oval should back off, the Democrats have to run in 2016, the Israeli lobby is powerful due to its influence and its money, the Dems will not sink their ambitions as to give Obama a foreign policy legacy.   This is what happens when you have a leader like Obama, ALL that matters to POTUS is himself.   As for the 2016 he does not have a dog in that race, if he did would want to make sure that his political actions did not have a negative result for the Democratic nominee.    That is the problem with having an old hand as VP, its the same problem that Bush 43 had with Dick Cheney.   A sitting Vice - President who has political ambitions on the Oval Office would want to make sure that the President was kept in check by the political realities that his or her actions would result in for his or her campaign.   Thus expect more Dems to seek some distance from the Obama Oval, it will be interesting to see how HRC jumps on the issues.   If HRC is the nominee she will want the blessing of the Oval and to use the Oval in liberal States, she does not need a POTUS who's actions could have major negative effects on the campaign trail.    As a famous Democratic Speaker one said, all political is local, just that the Israeli lobby is big and with dollars to back it up, ALL THINGS ARE POLITICAL. 

When to ACT? - Yemen Crisis

Guardian: Reports " US officials said Saudi Arabia was moving heavy military equipment including artillery to areas near its border with Yemen, raising the prospect of military intervention, though Saudi sources said the move was purely defensive. "

Lets Get Real:

This could develop into a major disaster for the Obama Oval,  on the one hand Saudi Arabia a close ally of the US might take action to defend its own border but also to make sure Iran does not gain more power via its support for the rebels in Yemen and due to the nuclear deal with the US.   It has been clear from numerous sources that SA is very concerned about a nuclear armed Iran, a nuclear armed Great Iran is more of a troubling development.   What if the proxy War between SA and Iran becomes a formal war, the US would be on the spot, the US gains billions from SA buying military planes etc from the US, while Iran could go nuclear with a limited time scope.   The wishes of the Obama Oval could face the reality of the murky politics of the Middle East.   Also Israel and SA are on the same page when it comes to Iran, it would be ironic if took SA and Israel through combat means to suppress the nuclear plans of Iran.   That is the politics of the Middle East, murky and ironic. 

Yemen Update - Yemen Crisis

BBC News: Reports " Yemen's President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi has fled his palace in Aden as Houthi rebels advance towards the city. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus we are seeing another failed State, on the one hand you have the Houthi rebels supported by Iran, while you also have Al Qaeda on the march.  The Gulf States should not wait for the US to act, it won't, Obama is good for drones, special forces, but will not use troops to gain his strategic aims, the Gulf States have talked the talked when it comes to Iran, its time they act, they have the forces, that is one of the benefits  to having oil money, at this rate Iran will have major influence in Syria via the Assad Regime and in Iraq via the new government.   The Tehran Regime from reports are going to get a good nuclear deal, those opposed to Iran should not wait for the US, time to use your own forces to prevent the growth of a Greater Iran.