IS Update 3 - Kerry on IS War - Middle East Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " Air war on Isil 'could last years' says John Kerry..US secretary of state praises ground advances against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant but adds campaign will continue "for as long as it takes" "

Lets Get Real:

As the article notes these land victories against IS have been on the margins of IS control, when it comes to taking on the larger areas of Iraq and Syria it will require US and UK Special Forces and it might even need combat troops to take the towns,   The West has to be careful that it gives IS to much time, lets recall IS has its own currency or is planning its own currency, it teaches the young the values of IS with brutal sick videos, it has aspects of a State and those roots can not be allowed to grow.   Thus after the air was has done all it can do the Oval and its allies will have to have real talks on a ground plan for Syria and Iraq, the Oval wants to pass the problem the next US Administration, it might not have the time, if IS grows it could attack Jordan or Lebanon, allies of the West,   Also as noted the US  has to be kept an eye on  a nuclear Iran, that is a major threat to Middle East security. 

 

IS Update 2 - Middle East Crisis

Guardian: Reports " Iran's air force bombs Isis in Iraq, says Pentagon...Washington and Tehran deny coordination as part of US-led coalition against Islamic State "

Lets Get Real:

The politics of the Middle East is murky at the best of time, it has been reported that President Obama sent a letter to Tehran in the hope of getting an agreement on various issues, it has also been reported that there was no official reply.   It not the official reply that worries this blog, its the back channels between the US and Iran, talks with Iran after the revolution have never gone well, the latest talks on their nuclear plans shows a Regime that is stalling, wants endless talks with the prospect of getting the bomb while the West is diverted by IS and the hope of an agreement between the US and Iran.   The US should send a warning shot over the bow of Iran, they might be on the same side when it comes to IS up to a point, but the West still understands that Iran is a major threat to Western security. 

IS Update - Middle East Crisis

BBC News: Reports " Air strikes carried out by the US-led collation on Islamic State (IS) have inflicted "significant" damage on the group's capabilities, US Secretary of State John Kerry says. "

Lets Get Real: 

The article mentions that Iran has hit IS in Iraq, thus in the respect of IS, Iran and the US are on the same page, they are not working together but they have the same aims, to roll back IS in Iraq and Syria, when it comes to Syria as the article notes Iran supports Assad with arms and men, Iran has used Iraqi air space to send arms to Assad, on the ground Iran has enough men to deal with the fall of Assad should it happen.   An air war by itself will not work, the planned training of a new Free Syrian Army by the US has not started, the air power of the West needs troops to take and hold land that has been left by IS.   Thus one can understand why Obama is trying to get secret talks with Iran, the problem is that Tehran wants the bomb, that is the major one threat to the security of the Middle East. 

The Boehner Two Step - Immigration

Fox News:  Reports on moves by Speaker Boehner to get support for a budget but without funding the new Obama rules, the article notes the following, " The House would vote later this week for a largely symbolic measure disapproving Obama's executive actions......The plan would fund most elements of the government for the remainder of the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, 2015. But, under one proposal, it would only fund immigration-related activities until early next year "

Lets Get Real: 

The above Boehner plan should allow Conservative Republicans to blow off steam when it comes to immigration and set a battle for early next year when the Republicans control the Congress.   Of course there has been talk of shutting down the US Government and only funding social security and defence, that comes with risks for the Republican nominee for President in 2016.   Of course if the candidate is Jeb Bush he could argue that he is a moderate and thus fighting extreme right on his side and the left on the Democratic side, not sure such a wise plan would work in this 24/7 news world.   It depends how far the Republicans want to take this, this blog has argued that the Republicans should out do Obama, offer faster way for those illegals in the US to become citizens,   It logical because it going to happen, might as well get the credit for it, and its the right thing to do, the US is not going to break up millions of families to make a point.   The Gipper would not have approved.  If they Republicans really want to fight, they should wait in till next year, when they control the Congress,

Jeb Bush for President OR Hillary Clinton in 2016

Telegraph:  Reports the following, " Jeb Bush positions himself as a centrist Republican - who can win...George W Bush's younger brother says he will make a decision about running for president "in short order" "

Lets Get Real:

This blog will support Jeb Bush for 2016 Republican nomination, should he not get the nod then this blog will support Senator Hillary Clinton for the Presidency.   Both as hawkish in foreign policy, one can expect more action out of Bush and Clinton, the Obama Presidency has shown how not to run foreign policy.   In the Republican race Jeb Bush will have to defeat a big field, they will try to move him to the right, that does not work in a general election, on the other hand Hillary Clinton should win 2016 and become the Democratic nominee, of course that was expected in 2008 and events did not turn out that way, thus the Obama Presidency.   If it turns out to be a Bush vs. Clinton fight it will be good for the US, good candidates with centrist stanch at home and abroad.   Of course in two years time it could be neither of them, there could be another Obama out there. 

The new US Defense Secretary = Ashton Carter

BBC News: Reports  on Ashton Carter the following, " Mr Carter was previously the Pentagon's chief arms buyer and an assistant secretary of defense under former President Bill Clinton. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Oval has gone for a safe pair of hands at the Defense Department, lets be honest here, no one of note wanted the job, you have a President who can not make him mind up what he wants in Syria and Iraq, and thus blames the Defense Secretary at the time for HIS FLAWS.  In one way Mr Carter is lucky, he can not be sacked, one can hardly have 5 Defense Secretaries, would not look good, lets see how Mr Carter plays this, with his past history at defense he should not have much of a problem with the confirmation hearing under a Republican Senate.   In many ways Mr Carter has a free hand, as noted he can not be fired, as a history with defense matters, more than can be said of President Obama.   Thus change at the Defense Department. 

The Syrian NO FLY ZONE - Middle East Crisis

The Washington Post: Reports on a plan for a no fly zone on the Turkish and Syrian border, the article notes the following, " ..part of an offensive to push back militants along the western part of Syria’s border with Turkey and create a relatively safe zone for U.S.-backed Syrian rebel forces to move in. "

Lets Get Real:

This plan has all the hallmarks of another Vietnam War, the Obama gradual approach has created this mess, the first mistake was removing troops from Iraq in 2011, this gave the impression that the US was getting out of the Middle East and thus the growth of IS in Syria and Iraq.   The Obama Administration let thousands of Syrian die before it took action.   The IS War sooner or late will mean that US troops have to part of the land action,   If that is the end result its better to go in BIG NOW, take the risk and finish IS before it grows any more.   The US has to make sure that Kobane in Syria does not fall to IS, it is of Strategic and PR value to the Western and Gulf Allies.    One can almost see President Obama as the next LBJ.