Romney vs. Obama - Gallup

Gallup ( LV ):  Reports on its daily tracking poll of likely voters, in today's poll Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%. A 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

The kind readers of this blog might be asking as this is Republican/Conservative Blog why it still thinks that President Obama is going to win, three reasons folks, in the next debate POTUS is going to come out fighting, nothing like a cornered Chicago Pol, thus expect a Reagan type comeback in 2nd debate.   The Democrats have collected multi millions in donations, also they have their ground game going, also with the help of the Unions in the Industrial States.    The Romney team has giving it a good fight, it will be close, but it will be 2nd term for POTUS but with a Republican House and Senate.   A good debate and a few good polls do not do a victory folks. 

Obama ATTACKS Romney on Foreign Policy - US Election 2012

Lets Get Real:

The Chicago Team Obama are very effective, they see a threat to the Oval over foreign policy and thus this attack advert.   The next Presidential debate is on foreign policy, on the whole the Oval has a good record from its view, thus they want make sure that Romney has a weak hand going in to the debate.   This is why Obama will get a 2nd term.   When you have to use the uber NYT as your support to attack Romney you know the advert is liberal lies, but effective liberal lies. 

Obama LIES about Romney's TAX PLAN - US Election

Lets Get Real:

This is a good advert by the Romney team, keeping hitting the Oval over its lies about the Romney tax plan.  The problem its to late folks, with early voting and the out spending by the Team Obama this election is over, it will be very close but Obama should WIN by a narrow margin.   Next time the Republicans have to finish their race early and hit the Democrats hard.  On the whole nice try by Team Romney. 

Romney on Obama's failed Foreign Policy - US Election 2012

The New York Times: Reports that Governor Romney attacked the foreign policy of the Obama Administration today, the Governor as the article notes, " ..criticized the president as lacking a comprehensive counterterrorism policy and failing to capitalize on the Arab Spring uprisings. ".

Lets Get Real:

As noted in previous blog post the major weakness for the Oval is the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya, the stonewalling about calling the attack on the US Consulate a terrorists attack does have a smell of a cover up.   The attack came on 9/11, a major theme of the Democratic Convention was that the Oval has killed OBL and that Al Qaeda was a spent force, the murders in Libya spoiled that message.    Thus the murders were blamed on anti Islamic tape.   This cover did not last, it seems that the Oval knew early that it was a terrorists attack.    Also the lack of security at the Consulate has become a major issue, why was there not enough security even after a request by the Ambassador.   This cover up has not reached the mind of the US voter, the success for the drones in Afghanistan and Pakistan has reached the general public, also the removal of troops from Iraq and the planned withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan in 2014.    The US voter is tired of constant WARS, thus no great appeal for another War, in this case with Iran.   Thus it can be argued that Oval is following the wishes of the voter, thus a 2nd term. 

The POLLS after the DEBATE - US Election 2012

Thus folks lets have a look at the US polls after the 1st Presidential Debate between President Obama and Governor Romney.

Rasmussen Reports (LV): In its daily tracking poll it finds that both President Obama and Governor Romney tied at 48%.

Gallup (RV): Reports in its daily tracking poll that President Obama leads Governor Romney by 50% to 45%, a 5% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks it can be argued that the Debate on the whole has kept the race even, in Rasmussen Obama and Romney are tied when it comes to likely voters, when it comes to Gallup and registered voters we see a 5% lead for POTUS.   Thus the debate bounce for Romney was limited, and the good news on the job front has steadied the Obama boat.  It can be postulated that POTUS will come out fighting in the 2nd debate, and will do a Reagan of 84 and close down this race.   As the 2nd debate is about foreign policy one can expect that POTUS will stated that he gave the order to kill OBL and that the US is out of Iraq and is getting out of Afghanistan.   This is not 1980 when Iran held US hostages, on the whole Obama has a strong hand with foreign policy, the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya has not really made its way in to the mainstream of US voters.   Thus any cover up charges will look odd to US voters.   This blog is still predicting a narrow Obama WIN. 

US Unemployment Rate and the US Election

Telegraph: Reports the following on the surprise drop in the US unemployment rate, the article notes the following, " ..dropped to its lowest level in almost four years, giving President Barack Obama a boost as the presidential race enters its final month. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus the news cycle will now turn from disaster for the 1st Presidential debate for POTUS to  how good the economy is going, that will be the message of the of the uber liberal main stream media.    There will be talk that President Obama is following the path of Ronald Reagan in 84, that the next debate Obama will come out fighting.   As the news  was unexpected the left will be in praise of the news, while the right will argue that the figures are miss leading, that as stated 8 million Americans have given up looking for work since Obama become President, this will be made to sound like sour grapes by the left.   They will be wrong but it will work, politics is not fair folks, its called democracy. 

US Unemployment DOWN to 7.8% - US Election

BBC News:  Reports that the US Unemployment rate has gone down from 8.1% to 7.8%.

Lets Get Real: 

This will be VERY good news to Team Obama, they can now argue that the US is heading in the right direction, that the US economy is coming back, political perception is reality folks.  The right will argue that since 2009 8 million Americans have given up looking for work, and if you counted those the rate would be 11%.    That does not matter, in 1984 Reagan had 7.5% unemployment rate, also had a bad first debate but came back knocked out VP Mondale in the 2nd debate and won by 59% of the vote, 49 States and 525 electoral votes.   Thus as stated President Obama will win, it will be narrow, also he could lose the US Senate, thus a 2nd term but no mandate.   Doubt he will place Senator Kerry in the State Department after his failure as a coach for the 1st debate.  How about Bill Clinton, that would be interesting move by POTUS.