The Growth of IS - The New War on Terror

The New York Times: Reports " The Islamic State is expanding beyond its base in Syria and Iraq to establish militant affiliates in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt and Libya, American intelligence officials assert, raising the prospect of a new global war on terror. "

Lets Get Real:

The major strategic mistake of the Obama Administration in 2011 was to leave Iraq, after the US left we see the growth if IS from Syria to Iraq and now to the above Countries.    The US still has around ten thousand troops in Afghanistan, thus they back back up the Afghan Government and forces, in Egypt the new President has cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood and is fighting IS. in Libya its a mess, that what happens after you lead from behind.  In Yemen the US backed government has fallen to a Iran back group, while Al Qaeda has moved to take over Yemeni military bases.    The perception of success in Yemen as stated by the Obama Oval is now another Tehran gain.    The next US President, be he or she will have  a tough job after the mess of the Obama years, in a few months we see the result of the Iran talks, there is fear in Israel that Obama will take a BAD deal over no deal, thus that could lead to Israel bombing Iran.   Tense days ahead in the Middle East. 

Ukraine Latest 2 - The Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " The fighting in east Ukraine dropped in intensity on Sunday, ...still saw fighting, especially around the contested town of Debaltseve. "

Lets Get Real:

The US, EU will have to keep constant pressure on the Russians to keep to their word,  the Russians if they play this clever have a lot to gain, the East Ukraine crisis will be off the 24/7 news cycle, the EU will want to cut the number of sanctions on Russia, well those close neighbours of Russia will want to ease these sanctions, then after a few months the Russians can push for Kiev, lets recall President Putin sees Ukraine as part of mother Russia, thus it is his backyard from the viewpoint of the Kremlin.    Lets see if the French and Germans can hold a leadership role in th EU and outside it, interesting times ahead. 

East Ukriane at Peace! - The New Cold War 2

BBC News: Reports " Fighting in east Ukraine has subsided but not stopped since a ceasefire came into effect, the warring parties say. "

Lets Get Real: 

It will take a few days to see if the peace deal holds, can the Russians control the Russian rebels in East Ukraine, how much notice of the peace deal with the Russians take, they want a land route to the Crimea, they need to go through Kiev held towns, the US has warned already that it has seen that the Russians have broken the peace deal, the article notes the following " The US, which has warned it could begin supplying arms to Ukraine if the peace initiative failed, claimed on Saturday it had evidence that the Russian military had deployed weaponry around Debaltseve  ".   If the peace deals falls apart the Oval Office will come under pressure from, Republicans and Democrats to arm the Kiev Government,  thus the WAR in East Ukraine would become a proxy war between the US and Russia. 

Ukraine Latest Part 2 - The New Cold War 2

The New York Times: Reports that the US has accused Russia of " massing artillery and rocket systems around a contested town in eastern Ukraine and joining pro-Russian rebels in attacking Ukrainian forces, calling such actions a violation of the spirit of a cease-fire agreement signed just one day earlier. "

Lets Get Real:

It is simple strategy, the Russians want a land route to the Crimea and to hold as much of Eastern Ukraine as they can, thus they will  have a VETO on any plans of the Western Kiev Government to joint NATO or the EU.  One can expect PR of tanks and soldiers moving out of East Ukraine, but this will be just PR, the Kremlin will make sure its allies have the heavy weapons needed to keep the fight on going, when the TV news is covering another crisis the Russians will move back in, one would not be surprised to see the Russians going for Kiev later in the year.    The Russian bear and its claws can not be trusted, the only old good Russian bear is one that has been put in its place, in other words real military and economic threats from the US and the EU.   This crisis in Eastern Europe is not over, there will be more deaths, it even could lead to a hot war in Europe.  Leaders have not learned from the 1930s. 

Fighting in Eastern Europe, Latest - The New Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " EU leaders sceptical about ceasefire due to begin on Sunday, while Ukrainian and pro-Russia forces jostle for advantage "

Lets Get Real:

The Russians want to gain are much ground in East Ukriane before the Minsk ceasefire comes in to force, the Kiev Government wants to hold the land it has and regain some of the land it lost after the 1st ceasefire agreement failed.   As stated by this blog the new deal has about 50/50 chance of working.   The West, and that includes the US and the EU has to be ready to force the Russians to back off, the Russian bear needs his paws slapped hard, that means more and tougher economic sanctions.   Interesting few days ahead in East Ukriane. 

The US and the Minsk Agreement - New Cold Wart 2

The White House: Statement by the White House Press Secretary on the Minsk Agreement, " The United States welcomes the agreement reached today in Minsk by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group, which was endorsed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France.  The agreement represents a potentially significant step toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict and the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty consistent with the Minsk agreements from last September.  We especially appreciate the tireless efforts of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande to reach this new accord.  We call on all parties to carry out the commitments undertaken in today’s accord and the September agreements fully and without delay.  This agreement must now be followed by immediate, concrete steps to fulfill the commitments by all parties.  The cease-fire must be implemented and honored.  Heavy weapons must be withdrawn from the conflict zone, and Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its soldiers and military equipment from eastern Ukraine.  The true test of today’s accord will be in its full and unambiguous implementation, including the durable end of hostilities and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its border with Russia.  The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord.  "

Lets Get Real:

The important part of the statement is the following, " The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord. "  One can expect that NATO will be keeping an eye on Russia action, do they withdraw their troops and heavy weapons, do the sides keep to their agreements.   This is not a done deal, the last one failed within days, lets see if this was a real attempt at a deal or just PR stunt by the the Russians.    The Russian bear when it has its nose in something is very hard to get away, just ask Eastern Europe. 

Germany and Greece - The Greek Money Crisis

Telegraph - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.33post the following comments by Chancellor Merkel, " Europe is always geared to compromise. Germany is ready for that. Nevertheless one has to say that Europe's credibility is based on sticking to the rules and that we are reliable," she told reporters in Brussels. "Now we will look which proposals Greece will make. Finance ministers will talk about it next Monday, we still have some days time."

Lets Get Real:

Either Germany or Greece blinks, if Germany blinks it will see the EU start to print money, sooner or later you get inflation and we will see the economic problems of Germany in the 1920 imposed on a larger area.    The Germany taxpayer is not going to pay for the political promises of Greece, if Germany allows this the left wing parties in Italy and France will offer the same deal, the Germans will pay for the political promises of other Countries, one would expect that the Germans would not be happy and they might turn to extreme Parties, yes people leaders never learn.   Berlin has to be tough, even if that means Greece leaving the Euro, it will be painful but its better than a compromise that leads to an economic disaster.   Time for Germany to take its place as a economic and military power.