What NEXT for Iran ? - Iran Crisis

Guardian: Reports that the Iranian Parliament has " ..requested a debate on a bill calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed to shipping from countries supporting sanctions. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks this blog would not be that surprised to see the Tehran Regime allow some low level attacks on tankers going through the Strait, enough to send the price of Oil up but not enough for the US to launch a massive attack. Thus Shipping underwriters should expect to raise their charges to insure against losses or small level attacks, the Tehran Regime can not afford yet to lose its access to oil revenue, it needs the money to fund its supporters and to allow Iran to become a nuclear armed power. Lets be VERY clear here folks, this crisis is developing, a planned attack or an accidental attack could come with the next few days, the Tehran Regime has seen how North Korea has blackmailed the West with its limited nuclear ability, that is the power Iran wants, its not there yet but its close folks. Lets hope the Israeli intelligence network the Mossad has its eyes and ears open when it comes to Iran, this blog expects Israel to tell the world if Iran is close to the bomb, that might come after an attack, but its coming folks.

The US vs. Iran - Iran Crisis

The New York Times: Reports the following on the developing crisis between the US and Iran, the US " has quietly moved significant military reinforcements into the Persian Gulf ". The US is concerned that the Tehran Regime will try to close down the important oil route of the Strait of Hormuz.

Lets Get Real:

This Crisis might not wait for the US Presidential Election in November folks, the latest EU sanctions on top of the already UN sanctions is starting to break down the civic order in Iran, as the excellent reporting by the NYT has shown all levels of the State have to work outside the system as to keep above water. The local currency has lost 50% of its value, the main growth industry in Iran is speculation, getting rid of their local currency for Dollars and items that will not be effected by a war between Iran and the US. If the Tehran Regime can not pay its supporters then it will need to divert attention and fast, thus the latest idea to close down the Strait, this would be drastic move, as this could be seen as a green light by Israel to hit Iran's nuclear structures, the US could hardly say much as they will have a small naval war going on with Iran at the time. The Tehran Regime wants time to make a nuclear bomb, this is the last thing wanted by the Oval and Israel, thus the present sanctions, the Regime might think it has nothing to lose, it has seen how weakness has overthrow leaders through out Africa and the Middle East, thus it might it is worth the risk, they might think that the Oval would back down from a fight with a powerful Iranian military, the Regime has spent on its forces over the years. If the Tehran Regime can close down the Persian Gulf it will send oil prices through the roof, do they dare, do they have the number of the Oval, it only needs for someone to get their signals wrong for a regional war to develop.

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the names of the three UK Soldiers killed on Sunday in Afghanistan, they were " Warrant Officer Class 2 Leonard Perran Thomas of the Royal Corps of Signals, and Guardsman Craig Andrew Roderick and Guardsman Apete Saunikalou Ratumaiyale Tuisovurua of the 1st Battalion Welsh Guards ". Our thoughts are with the families of these brave Soldiers.

Sanctions and Iran

The New York Times: Reports from Iran, how the latest sanctions on Iran is hurting Iran's currency; it is down in value by 50%; the article notes the following on this effect, " ..an atmosphere in which citizens, banks, businesses and state institutions have started fending for themselves. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is what the West wants folks, it was the gradual destruction of the civic life of Iran, it wants the people to work outside the system, to see how the system has let them down, it wants to force the Tehran Regime to use its foreign currency to keep the support of the Army and Police, if they are using the cash for that they cant be developing the bomb. The question that has to be asked who breaks first, will the people get so angry with the system that we see another Libya, Egypt or Syria developing in Iran. That is why the Tehran Regime wants the bomb, as long as Iran does not have the bomb the Regime is under threat from external forces. The EU/UN sanctions have been set in place as the World does not want to see Israel launch a military strike to prevent Iran getting the bomb. The latest EU sanctions to close down the import of oil from Iran will start to create cracks in the Regime, thus the West can expect some kind of military action by Tehran to force the West to relax the sanctions, thus the Western Navies should be on guard for some kind of stunt by Tehran. Something has to give folks, the pressure is mounting in this fragile Persian Bottle.

The EU Bailout and Finland and Holland

Guardian Live - Euro: Reports the following in its 11.15am post on the resistance of Holland and Finland to the EU bailout baying the bonds of the PIIGS, " ..It's not clear, though, that it can block the idea. ".

Lets Get Real:

That is the problem with the present crisis, in essence the future of the Eurozone is down to Germany and to a lesser extent France, you would think in a Democracy, and the last time this blog looked the EU was supposed to be a democracy that when a major State like the Netherlands says NO it would have an effect, but no it seems, it down to majority voting and how much money you throw at the EU, thus down again to Germany. What happens when the Netherlands is asked to pass a major EU Treaty that requires all the States to pass, what happens as a result of not blocking this scheme the good people of Holland say NO to closer Union, will they be pushed along by Germany. Democracy is seems folks is being pushed out of the window by Germany, that is not new for Netherlands.

Threat to New EU Agreement - Euro Crisis

Telegraph Live - Euro: Reports in its 10.45am/11.17am posts that Holland and Finland will try to prevent the EU bailout fund from baying the bonds of the weaker Euro Countries.

Lets Get Real:

Folks the Euro Crisis will only be solved for the long term when Germany agrees to Euro bonds, this will combine the debt of ALL Eurozone Countries and have their credit rating linked to Germany, the Germans would be on the hook to fund the poor PIIGS for many decades, as once the PIIGS get this funding they will not reform. The Germans have to careful that they are not conned in to baying used used tea bags! There is a push for a Federal EU, one President, one cabinet, one bank etc. The problem for the EU is that it will have to be German lead EU as they have the money, the French are now 2nd league players. The UK Government supports a Federal Europe as long as the UK is not part, without the counter weight of the UK the Eurozone will become a greater Germany, the French are really going to love that, one has doubts that the EU politicians see they are breaking their links with the voters, once the voters get a chance to vote on the EU, many politicians might find they are all at sea while the Ship of State has passed them on.

Deaths in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that three UK Soldiers were killed on Sunday in Afghanistan by an Afghan Policeman from reports, the Soldiers came from the following, " Two soldiers serving with the 1st Battalion Welsh Guards and one serving with the Royal Corps of Signals ". Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 422 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 382 in combat/hostile action, while 40 have died due to illness, accidents or other incidents.