Arming the Libya Rebels - Libya

Read an alarming report from ABC News that the US might arm the Libyan rebels, the source was the US UN’s Ambassador Susan Rice. This would be a major mistake, the historical case study that it brings to mind is the following, Afghanistan = Cold War = Taliban/Al Qaeda. Lets be clear not against arming the rebels on the whole, but it should be old low grade stuff, nothing that can be turned on a Western Army in the future. The rebels have to be trained and armed, they are not going to overthrow Colonel Gaddafi on their own. The Libyan War is a Civil War, lets make sure that those replace Gaddafi are secular democrats, not religious nuts as occurred in Iran in 1979. If Air power on its own cant take down the Mad Dog then the Allies will have to look again at ground troops, nothing big, but a small professional forces made up of Special Forces from the US, UK and France, they should be used to help the rebels in the Gaddafi supporting areas of Libya. Otherwise folks this conflict could last well in to next year, and next year is a Presidential Election year.

Tripoli under ATTACK - Libya

Mail on Sunday: Reports that Tripoli the capital of Libya is facing another night of Allied Attacks. One can assume that Colonel Gaddafi is working on a plan to hold the West of Libya while the rebels hold the East, but there is a flaw in that plan, the Allies allowing Gaddafi to stay would be seen as a defeat, also there would be the chance that the Mad Dog would return to terrorism and would over time try to get the East back under his control. Thus Gaddafi has to go, one way or another folks, dead would be the perfect end for Gaddafi.

The Bombing of Sirte - Gaddafi’s Birthplace

Telegraph: Reports that the Allies have started to bomb Sirte, the birthplace of Colonel Gaddafi. One gets the impression that the Allies are not interested in a long war, they are rolling up the Gaddafi security forces, thus this blog’s prediction that this War could last days not weeks. The East of Libya is in the hands of the rebels, reports from the rolling news is that Gaddafi is removing his tanks back to the Capital of Tripoli, lets hope this is not a honey trap for the rebels. The nightmare for the Allies would be for this desert war to turn in to a urban war, the Allies would have limited ability to use their planes. But on the whole the strategy of air power is working faster than this blog thought.

The Death of Geraldine Ferraro

This blog was sad to hear the news that Geraldine Ferraro the first woman to run on a National ticket has died. Politics on the national level is still a man’s world, to think that only in 1984 and 2008 have women been on the ticket as the VP nominee, in both cases they lost. In 1984 Geraldine Ferraro was on the ticket with former Carter VP Walter Mondale, the result was not the fault of having a woman on the ticket, the rest was that Reagan/Bush ticket won 49 States and 59% of the vote. A big win folks. To think that it took in till 2008 for a woman to have a serious chance of winning of one of the Parties nomination in the shape of Hillary Clinton. Also it was the Republicans that had a woman VP nominee. One has to respect Geraldine Ferraro for pushing that door open, it has allowed women to think that they can be President. The White House released the following from President Obama, “ Michelle and I were saddened to learn about the passing of Geraldine Ferraro. Geraldine will forever be remembered as a trailblazer who broke down barriers for women, and Americans of all backgrounds and walks of life. Whether it was as a public school teacher, assistant district attorney, Member of Congress, or candidate for Vice President, Geraldine fought to uphold America's founding ideals of equality, justice, and opportunity for all. And as our Ambassador to the UN Human Rights Commission, she stood up for those ideals around the world. Sasha and Malia will grow up in a more equal America because of the life Geraldine Ferraro chose to live. Our thoughts and prayers go out to her husband, John Zaccaro, her children and grandchildren, and their entire family. ” Our thoughts are with the Ferraro family. 　

The Weekend in Libya

The weekend has seen fast moving developments in Libya folks, the rebels have taken Ajdabiya, Brega and Ras Lanf, the air campaign against the Gaddafi forces has been very effective, from the rolling news of BBC and SKY it seems that the rebels have not fired a shot in anger since moving in to Ajdabiya, the question that can be asked is Colonel Gaddafi wanting to lure the rebels to Tripoli, move the combat from the open desert to a urban location. In a urban location the rebels could not count on the support of the Allies, the Allies will not risk the deaths of innocent bystanders, thus it will be down to hand to hand combat on the streets of Tripoli. Of course this would not happen should the Mad Dog Colonel Gaddafi call it a day and leave for exile, or he gets taken out by someone in his regime. The War in Libya if things keep going well, and that’s a big IF, could end in days folks. A net positive for President Obama, NATO and the UN.

The White House on Syria

If not for Japan, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, the protests in Syria would be front page news, but with so many crisis's, the story at best gets second or third level coverage on the TV news, here is the White House angel on Syria by the Press Secretary Jay Carney, “ We strongly condemn the Syrian government’s attempts to repress and intimidate demonstrators, and we are calling for an immediate cease to the violence and killings of civilians at the hands of the Syrian security forces. It’s the same position we’ve taken throughout the region, and we condemn it strongly. We have obviously, as we always do, consulted with our allies in the region. And we urge upon the Syrian government that they pursue a non-violent path, that they pursue political dialogue, because the future of this region depends upon -- the stability and future of this region depends upon the decision by governments to listen to their people, to act on their legitimate aspirations, and to open up their systems so that the people of these countries can have a greater stake in the future of their country and their own futures. So we take the same position with Syria as we’ve taken with others. We also -- you know, we’re also deeply troubled by the arbitrary arrests of human rights activists in Syria, and we urge them to cease that practice, as well. ”. This is all the White House can do, its not going to use its military forces on Syria, even if the Oval was that mad it would drag in Iran a close ally of Syria. Thus expect hundred if not thousands of good Syrians to get killed by the hands of their own government. Its sad but there is nothing the West can do, so sorry to the protesting people of Syria.

Congress and POTUS = Libya

The US Congressional leadership had its face time with POTUS on Libya, its after the event but it should keep the House and Senate happy, the White House readout of the meeting is as follows, “ On March 25, President Obama briefed a bipartisan, bicameral group of Members of Congress on the situation in Libya. The President and his team provided an update on accomplishments to date, including the full transfer of enforcement of the no-fly zone to NATO, and yesterday’s unanimous agreement among NATO allies to direct planning for NATO to assume command and control of the civilian protection component in accordance with UNSCR 1973. Following the briefing, the President answered multiple questions from the Members of Congress. The discussion lasted approximately one hour and took place in the White House Situation Room. ”. The agreed plan by NATO is for NATO countries to do the no fly zone, but for the Allies of the willing, the US, UK and France to bomb the Gaddafi tanks etc, thus the US is still the major player in this conflict whatever the Oval states. As stated this blog supports the action by POTUS, he has the authority as the Commander in Chief, he does not need the nod from Congress, even if they think he does due to the War Powers Act. The question is how does the Libyan War end, thus this my argument for a Max Strategy due to the fact that you win faster, otherwise a limited strategy will takes weeks if not moths, due to training of the rebels in the East. Does Obama still want Gaddafi in power in an election year or for the Libyan conflict to be still going on, Libya just might hand the Oval to the Republicans.