Our Boris off to Brussels - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will travel to Brussels this week to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a last ditch effort to salvage a post-Brexit trade deal. "

Lets Get Real:

The UK and EU delegations in Brussels have gotten nowhere, so why is the PM going to the EU.  There could be a chance of deal, like he did with the Irish PM, but in this context he will have to deal with the French and Germans, and also his ERG will be looking over his shoulder to make sure that he does not sell out UK interests to be popular with the EU and the French.   On the other hand the PM might want to show that he tried everything before throwing in the towel and calling the talks to a HALT and going for a NO DEAL BREXIT.  It is unknown when the PM is going, it could be Tuesday or even Friday as some have suggested, also there is a EU Summit going on in Brussels on Thursday, the PM will not want to be like PM May, stuck in a room waiting news from the EU.  Only a fool would make a prediction on the outcome.

It's the fault of the French - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " Mr Macron, who faces re-election in 2022, has made lavish promises to French fishermen and is said to believe blocking a deal could bolster his popularity. "

Lets Get Real:

The Germans will have to place big political pressure on the French to BACKDOWN, the EU needs a deal, that also includes the Germans.  Berlin will have to promise that the EU in other words the German taxpayer will support French fishermen thrown out of the English Channel.  The next 48 hours will be interesting, will the French President want to be seen as a BAD EUROPEAN, or will local politics trump being a good European and saying NO to a BREXIT DEAL.

The problems FACED by the UK/EU over Brexit - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Sky News: Reports " significant differences remain on three critical issues: level playing field, governance and fisheries". "

Lets Get Real:

On level playing field, the UK Government cannot give, the very reason for leaving the EU is that the UK will decide its own rules, without having to answer to the EU.  Thus very limited scope for that, one or a two year transition might be doable, if the ECJ is kept out of it and we the UK get 70% of fish caught in the channel at the minimum.  The Germans over the weekend will have to muzzle the French, the Germans will have to promise EU support for fishing families hurt by the decline of the UK market.  Also the UK PM will have to keep the hard Brexit MPs in the House of Commons happy, even if they oppose with Labour support  the deal can be passed, but that is not good enough in a political context, the PM will have been seen to sell out UK interests, that would be a hard political fight back.  Thus we wait and see!

More UK/EU talks over Brexit, but major problems - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " The UK and EU have decided to return to the negotiating table to try to agree a post-Brexit trade deal, despite "significant differences".  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog is cynical, if there are fast differences why bother having further talks, if neither side is going to fold its just PR for reporters to cover.  On the other hand if there is a REAL DEAL to get but the sides have to shown they took every last minute then that is good PR.  On the other  hand it could be that UK PM is playing hardball, the Internal Markets Bill comes back to the House of Commons on Monday, it is expected that the Government will restore those clauses removed by the House of Lords, thus driving the EU nuts.  Tomorrow the 24/7 news channels will cover the latest news from Brussels, can the sides agree and what will happen with the leaders talk on the phone on Monday night? A interesting 48 hours in European politics. 

Who will get the BLAME for the failure of the UK/EU Brexit Talks - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Sky News: Reports " Trade talks put on hold as UK and EU say 'conditions not met' for deal....A week of intense trade talks between Britain and the European Union reaches a stalemate. "

Lets Get Real:

If the talks actually fail tomorrow after talks between the UK PM and the Brussels President, the sides will be looking to blame someone or some thing, the UK will follow the typical route and blame the FRENCH, while the EU will blame the hard Brexit MPs in the Conservative Party, if they are being honest both sides would agree with the above.   Thus if the UK finally pulls the plug tomorrow the UK will know its future, that goes for business also.  The UK will be a sovereign NATION again after December 31st, about time. Of course the sides could pull something out of the hat, one never knows with the EU. 

UK/EU Brexit Talks STALL and are PAUSED - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " Talks to reach a post-Brexit trade deal have been paused, because UK and EU negotiators say "significant divergences" remain.  "

Lets Get Real:

The EU threw a spanner in to the works last night with demands for a way to compel the UK to follow EU regulations.  The culprit it seems are the French, the French President must be worried about future elections in France, he wants to appear as the tough man, who stood up to the British.  In can be argued that both sides, the UK and France have a negative view of each other, they do not even know how to make a cup of tea!! The PM has to be firm with the EU tomorrow, our deal or no deal, we are happy with both, time to settle this issue, once and for all.  The same issues have been the same for years, fish, regulations and who will judge the issue.   Tomorrow will be interesting, would love to be on the zoom call between the leaders.

Are the French GETTING REAL about Brexit ?- Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: French PM says country must compromise in fishing deal...Jean Castex says coastal communities must prepare for ‘new era’ in visit to biggest fishing port "

Lets Get Real:

Are the French finally getting REAL, will they accept that the UK has a sovereign rights to its own WATER and OUR FISH.   This would be a good move and would allow for talks that allow for some compromise, limited in nature and to be reviewed every year.  As for the rest of the EU, they have to move, they have been slow with the COVID - 19 vaccine, one hopes that they do not think that they can stall Brexit talks for this year and restart them in 2021.  The time is close, time to make a DEAL on UK terms.