Virtual World of Iran

CBS: Reports on the virtual world in Iran, the regime has taken on a propaganda attack that the protests after the President Election are the blame of the UK, Obama has been forced to be more critical by the right wing in the USA. It seems that the Government of Iran has taken the lessons of Nazi Germany, it is creating its own reality and starting to blame groups and other countries. Thus now its the UK, when do they start to blame Israel, when does spoken critical attacks become an attack on Israel by Iran, and Iran with the bomb. Thus the chance of talks are over, its a time for firm action by the West, Israel will never allow another holocaust, and a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran would be a holocaust. Iran is another Nazi Germany and Stalin USSR, but with the nuclear bomb in view. Thus time to take on Iran and help the reformers before its to late for Iran and the World.

EU Out of Iran ?

The New York Times: Reports that the European Union could pull out all EU Ambassadors from Iran due to the arrest of local UK British Embassy workers in Tehran. The Iranian regime has shown itself to be a totalitarian regime, the main aim of the regime is to keep power. Thus a repressive regime will have to get more repressive to keep power. As stated in this blog they would get a local worker of the UK Embassy to confess to helping the reform movement. It seems from the article in the New York Times, that the regime has chosen a local to punish. The charge is of course false but they need a public confession to sell to the people of Iran. Thus expect a Court Case and the British to be blamed, the Government of Iran will use the past actions of the West as a justification for a more repressive system. Thus expect even more arrests, reformers and protesters will face torture and jail time. The West will have a choice, this is the 1930s all over again, the West can either appease or show how firm the West can be, the EU should remove their Ambassadors, firmness now could prevent war later on between Iran and Israel.

Third Front in Pakistan

The Times: Reports that a third front in the terror war in Pakistan has opened up in North Waziristan, a local Tribal Chief has killed twenty three soldiers of the Army of Pakistan. The tribal badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a nightmare for a regular Army to fight at the best of time, this is not that time, the Army of Pakistan is learning to fight terrorists, its main military planning is to fight India. Thus it will take time for the Army of Pakistan to learn new military strategy, it took the US Army three years. Thus it will be a tough fight in Waziristan, its an insurgent heaven for fighting, mountains, passes that are hard to block, local loyalties, the need for troops to stay on the ground and win hearts and minds. This is going to be long and tough fight for the Army of Pakistan, lets hope they learn faster than the US Army in Iraq. The Taliban/Terrorists have access to Afghanistan, thus when the fighting gets heavy they can cross the border, the Obama surge of troops is just starting, thus it is important that the the US Military and Army of Pakistan co -ordinate military planning to flush out the terrorists, or the War in Afghanistan will hurt Obama as Iraq hurt Bush 43.

No More Filibusters

The New York Times: Reports that the Minnesota Supreme Court has declared that the Democrat Al Franken in the winner of the US Senate Seat. This gives the Democrats in the US Senate total control of the Senate, the Republicans can no longer filibuster a bill, they need Democrats to cross over to prevent any bills. The downside for the Democrats is that they get Al Franken, a not very good comedian, and totally Liberal. There is an old saying, be careful what you wish for you, well the Democrats have gotten their wish. Due to this decision, the Republicans will retake Congress in 2010. In addition, Obama will lose in 2012.

Iraq NOW

Sky News - Foreign Matters: Reports on the handover by the USA to Iraq of the security of Iraqi cities. This could be a testing time; there have been bomb attacks; as the post states. The Agreement for the transfer of security of Iraqi cities is set for June 30, USA troops should be out of Iraq by the end of 2011. It can be argued that the remaining terrorists in Iraq will get support from Iran, it will suite the regime in Tehran to divert attention to Iraq, thus expect more heavy terrorists attacks up to the transfer of power, also expect more attacks on the US Forces. The Government of Iran sees Obama as a threat to its power, thus it will want to force him to take a more hawkish stand, the best way, increase Iraqi violence and allow a thread back to Iran. Also go for the nuclear option, from the position in Iran it is in their interest to force Obama to take up the Bush 43 policies, thus divert attention from the regime.

The Reagan Lesson for Obama, Is Iran the next Poland ?

WSJ: Reports how President Ronald Reagan supported the Solidarity trade union in Poland; through external pressure and internal support for the union; and how this helped finish Communist rule in Poland and as a conaqunce the end of the Cold War. The point of this article is how President Obama should help those in Iran that are opposed to the regime, the article states the following, " The circumstances aren't so different. With similar vision and leadership, the endgame could be the same. " I think there is a difference, the regime in Iran has shown that it knows that it cant show any weakness now, its has gone to far, the repression like the imposition of martial law in Poland in 1981 will get ever harder in Iran, the regime knows that if it falls those that it repressed and friends of those that it killed will come after the leaders of the regime, thus expect Iran to go more like North Korea, it has started down this road already, the arrest of local UK Embassy workers is a PR ploy, it cant allow information freedom or it will face more demonstrations, thus expect a even tighter information flow. The negative effect is that this will hurt the economy of Iran even more, thus more people will get angry, thus this public volcano will explode, it will take the regime to the dustbin of history but will cost the life's of many in Iran. In many respects this is a chance of Obama to show that he is no Jimmy Carter or Neville Chamberlain but we are dealing with a regime that is going to go nuclear if it gets the chance, thus will limit the Obama options. The regime has to go nuclear, it needs some good PR in Iran itself, what better than to become a nuclear power and also it takes any military option off the table for the Obama West Wing. Thus the clock is ticking before a military strike by Israel, Obama in many respects has no choice now, the regime has defined itself but also done a Obama a political favour, he has to become a hawk, doves don't get re-elected, just ask Carter.

Iran - Local UK Embassy Workers Arrested

BBC News: Reports on the arrest of eight to nine local UK Embassy Workers in Iran. Lets me guess, through torture or other means the Government of Iran will get some to confess that they are working for MI6 or the CIA or both, the security forces of Iran have forced the people off the streets, now they are going PR within Iran, they want to shift the focus from the totalitarian regime to the West, also the want to paint Obama as Bush 43. Thus expect more propaganda and arrests. The regime in Iran has shown itself to be in the mold of the old USSR and Nazi Germany.