Monday, January 20, 2014

Geneva Peace Talks and Iran - 2nd Term Blues


Lets Get Real:

Since the revolution in 1979 Iran has caused problems for the Middle East and the US, it bought down the Presidency of Jimmy Carter with the holding of US Diplomats in till he left Office, in total for 444 days.    The lowest point of the Reagan Administration was the Iran - Contra affair, at its core the the US sold arms to Iran in the hope of getting its hostages out, then used profits from the scheme to arm the Contra freedom fighters.   Once the scheme came out President Reagan was in hot water, he got through but it hurt, as to results, well Reagan left Office with a 63% Approval rating and his VP, Bush 41 become President, thus in the end it didn't hurt in the long term for Reagan.  Iran is never good for US Presidents, lets hope President Obama does not get hurt as Carter and Reagan did in some respects.    The Syrian Civil War is a proxy War between the biggest players in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran,  they have the money and the time to play this out, long enough to out last the Obama Presidency, there is NO deal without SA and the Syrian Rebels, they want Assad OUT, the Tehran Regime needs him power as Assad is a close ally and allows them to show their power in the region, which is negative for Israel and the US in the long term.   The UN made this mess  by the invite to Iran, it has to clear up this mess, none of the Western sides are going to give in on this, neither are the Syrian rebels, the UN just might have sunk the peace talks before they even started IN Geneva.  What a diplomatic disaster for the UN. 

Update: Both Sky and BBC News confirm that the invite for Iran to attend the Syrian talks has been withdrawn by the UN.   Lets see what the talks bring, this blog has doubts that there will be any real agreement, the action is in Syria, not in Europe. 

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