The Boehner Two Step - Immigration

Fox News:  Reports on moves by Speaker Boehner to get support for a budget but without funding the new Obama rules, the article notes the following, " The House would vote later this week for a largely symbolic measure disapproving Obama's executive actions......The plan would fund most elements of the government for the remainder of the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, 2015. But, under one proposal, it would only fund immigration-related activities until early next year "

Lets Get Real: 

The above Boehner plan should allow Conservative Republicans to blow off steam when it comes to immigration and set a battle for early next year when the Republicans control the Congress.   Of course there has been talk of shutting down the US Government and only funding social security and defence, that comes with risks for the Republican nominee for President in 2016.   Of course if the candidate is Jeb Bush he could argue that he is a moderate and thus fighting extreme right on his side and the left on the Democratic side, not sure such a wise plan would work in this 24/7 news world.   It depends how far the Republicans want to take this, this blog has argued that the Republicans should out do Obama, offer faster way for those illegals in the US to become citizens,   It logical because it going to happen, might as well get the credit for it, and its the right thing to do, the US is not going to break up millions of families to make a point.   The Gipper would not have approved.  If they Republicans really want to fight, they should wait in till next year, when they control the Congress,

Jeb Bush for President OR Hillary Clinton in 2016

Telegraph:  Reports the following, " Jeb Bush positions himself as a centrist Republican - who can win...George W Bush's younger brother says he will make a decision about running for president "in short order" "

Lets Get Real:

This blog will support Jeb Bush for 2016 Republican nomination, should he not get the nod then this blog will support Senator Hillary Clinton for the Presidency.   Both as hawkish in foreign policy, one can expect more action out of Bush and Clinton, the Obama Presidency has shown how not to run foreign policy.   In the Republican race Jeb Bush will have to defeat a big field, they will try to move him to the right, that does not work in a general election, on the other hand Hillary Clinton should win 2016 and become the Democratic nominee, of course that was expected in 2008 and events did not turn out that way, thus the Obama Presidency.   If it turns out to be a Bush vs. Clinton fight it will be good for the US, good candidates with centrist stanch at home and abroad.   Of course in two years time it could be neither of them, there could be another Obama out there. 

The new US Defense Secretary = Ashton Carter

BBC News: Reports  on Ashton Carter the following, " Mr Carter was previously the Pentagon's chief arms buyer and an assistant secretary of defense under former President Bill Clinton. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Oval has gone for a safe pair of hands at the Defense Department, lets be honest here, no one of note wanted the job, you have a President who can not make him mind up what he wants in Syria and Iraq, and thus blames the Defense Secretary at the time for HIS FLAWS.  In one way Mr Carter is lucky, he can not be sacked, one can hardly have 5 Defense Secretaries, would not look good, lets see how Mr Carter plays this, with his past history at defense he should not have much of a problem with the confirmation hearing under a Republican Senate.   In many ways Mr Carter has a free hand, as noted he can not be fired, as a history with defense matters, more than can be said of President Obama.   Thus change at the Defense Department. 

The Syrian NO FLY ZONE - Middle East Crisis

The Washington Post: Reports on a plan for a no fly zone on the Turkish and Syrian border, the article notes the following, " ..part of an offensive to push back militants along the western part of Syria’s border with Turkey and create a relatively safe zone for U.S.-backed Syrian rebel forces to move in. "

Lets Get Real:

This plan has all the hallmarks of another Vietnam War, the Obama gradual approach has created this mess, the first mistake was removing troops from Iraq in 2011, this gave the impression that the US was getting out of the Middle East and thus the growth of IS in Syria and Iraq.   The Obama Administration let thousands of Syrian die before it took action.   The IS War sooner or late will mean that US troops have to part of the land action,   If that is the end result its better to go in BIG NOW, take the risk and finish IS before it grows any more.   The US has to make sure that Kobane in Syria does not fall to IS, it is of Strategic and PR value to the Western and Gulf Allies.    One can almost see President Obama as the next LBJ.  

The East Ukraine Crisis - New Cold War 2

BBC News: Reports " Ukraine says its troops are still holding Donetsk airport despite an intensive assault by pro-Russian rebels "backed by Russian special forces". "

Lets Get Real:

Of ALL the crisis points in the world at the moment, it this crisis that really worries this blogger.   It only takes a Russian who has drunk to much to start a crisis between Russia and NATO.   The Russians are far to close to the Baltic States and Poland for this blogger's liking, surly President Putin has not gone off his rocker and thinks he can try something in the Baltic States and Poland.   As it has been noted in this blog and others, an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.  Think about it, if your Putin and you see the oil price going down, and you do not have the money buy off different groups, you will look to change the topic, what about dreaded West, how far will President Obama go to protect Poland and the Baltic States.   In Moscow one can say without doubt that there are plans for a quck attack on Poland or the Baltic States, this blog would go for the Baltic States if it was Putin, would POTUS really go to WAR over these new allies to new NATO.   If this blog is thinking it one can be sure it has been asked in Moscow and the Oval Office.  As I said this crisis is the most troubling. 

The Mid Terms - The Final Seat Result - 2nd Term Blues

The Washington Post: Reports " A Dec. 6 win by front-running Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) over Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) would give Senate Republicans their ninth pickup and stretch their advantage in the chamber to 54-46 over Democrats when the new Congress is sworn in next year. "

Lets Get Real:

The Democrats need a new FACE for the Party, the Obama Era has two years to go, the point with Obama is that HIS voters will not come out for a nominal Democrat.   The electoral coalition of the young, African Americans and other groups, the gay community and those that support a more green government policy fell for the charisma  of Obama, and of course the historical fact that Obama would be the first African - American President, as the Mid Terms showed Obama for him has hit rock bottom with the polls, from ObamaCare to his failure in the foreign policy field the Obama record is not great.   Thus the party is looking to the past in the shape of the Clintons, for the 2016 Hillary Clinton has a lock on the nomination as long as she does not manage to lose it again as she did with then Senator Obama in 2008.   Of course that is the point, Hillary Clinton did lose in 2008, the question is who will be the challenger to Hillary Clinton and will it come from the left of the Party. 

Is Obama a Lame Duck President ? - 2nd Term Blues

Washington Post: Reports on the myths of  2nd term lame duck Presidents, and has this advice for President Obama, " Indeed, many lame-duck presidents facing congressional majorities of the opposite party still have achieved successes that boosted their political fortunes and long-term reputations. But they’ve usually done so by tacking more to the center than playing to their base. Obama would be well advised to pursue such a strategy today. "

Lets Get Real:

Ever since the Reagan Presidency ALL 2nd Term Presidents have wanted to be a Reagan, the one that got close was Bill Clinton, thus how does this blog grade 2nd termers, simple really, who is their successor, in the case of Reagan it was Bush 41, this showed that the Reagan Era had the support of a majority of Americans, if not then the Democratic nominee would have won the election.   This blog would argue that Clinton got close because his VP, AL Gore won the popular vote but lost his home State, if he had kept a eye on his own State as President Clinton told him then he would have won the Presidency.   Both Presidents, Reagan and Clinton had a VP who wanted to run after them and they supported their VP for the top job.   That is not always the case, lets recall the famous or infamous remark by President Eisenhower when reporters asked him what had Nixon done in the two terms, the President stated if they gave him a week he would think of something, hardly helpful.   But at least Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton were not afraid to have  a VP who wanted the job, both  Bush 43 and Obama had Vice Presidents that were not a threat to them in the long term, they would not go off the reservation if it helped them in political terms.   Both Bush 41 and Gore needed some distance between themselves and the boss, with Bush 41 it was Iran - Contra and with Gore it was the affair that Bill Clinton had with an intern, the added problem for Gore was the view that Clinton was a negative on the campaign trail, that was not the case with Reagan.    Thus they ALL want to be the Gipper, few get close but none are really the Gipper.