In Office with No Power ?

Telegraph: Reports that UK PM Gordon Brown has done a U - TURN over the Independent Secret Inquiry in to the Iraqi War, now it seems he is open to some open elements. That’s the problem for Mr Brown now, he is a weak PM, thus before he was Stalin he would lead and Labour would follow along, now that he is low in the opinion polls and the Cabinet cant be trusted as far as the he could throw them, he has to back down when a policy does not work. His predecessor Tony Blair will not be happy; he was in the frame to the President of the EU. I wonder will the Tony Blair sessions be in the open, under oath, interesting times folks.

Protest in Iran Today

Sky News: Reports on the protest today in Iran over the stolen election and the death of demonstrators. It seems that the religious elite is playing the long game, they will offer crumbs of concessions, then declare that Ahmadinejad has won, they have thrown the western media out, expect a more brutal reaction when they can prevent the protesters sending out information, they have to do this or they lose power, its that simple folks. Lets recall this is not the USSR when those that lead the Revolution in 1917 had no breath in them in 1991, those leaders had meet their makers, those that lead the 1979 revolution in Iran are still about, they have made enemies, enemies who will dispatch them without mercy. Thus if they want to live and keep power they have to go in mob handed, thus expect more blood and more deaths.

The Stark Reality in Iran

The Times: Reports on the political reality in Iran, the State has the Armed Forces and the Internal Police, what does the opposition have, the people. This is why President Obama could be right in his tepid reaction, at the end of the day the people of Iran might find themselves repressed under a brutal Islamic regime and the West has to deal with the reality of that regime with nuclear arms. Also there is a difference between a revolution and a change of faces at the top, the people might want better relationship with the West and more freedoms but their leaders are from the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Thus the real revolution in Iran might have to come later and the opposition will have to arm up, its brutal but that simple. Thus my prediction, I agree with Obama at the most basic political reality, this might not be the time, might be wrong, hope this post is wrong but have my doubts. The youth of Iran have stated their need for freedom but freedom comes at a cost, you sometimes have to fight not with just words but with weapons, so far don’t see the opposition with any tanks, when the arm up Obama’s tone might change, its up to the people of Iran.

Obama and Iran

The New York Times: Reports on the backlash to the Obama position on Iran, the President's reaction has been tepid if your on the streets in Tehran fighting for freedom. Also Obama's comments that both Ahmadinejad and Moussavi share the same Foreign Policy views did not help the people on the street in Tehran. The Liberal NYT writes the following, " officials in Washington are debating whether President Obama’s response to Iran’s disputed election has been too muted. " It can be argued from a Western point of view that President Obama is correct, as stated on Fox News Mr Mussavi when he was PM in the 80s had thousands killed. The question now is his challenge about leadership of the present state or revolution. If all the demos just lead to change of faces at the top but no policy change then Obama is correct in his analysis of this crisis. If Mr Mussavi wants a revolution and wants to take Iran down a new road, then Obama could be wrong. Thus President Obama is following an interesting path, if he is right then his muted views of the events in Iran have been worked, but if he is wrong then he looks like Jimmy Carter, with that President's failure to prevent the revolution in Iran in 1979 and Neville Chamberlain at Munich, Obama would have placed Ahmadinejad as the same to Mussavi. Time will tell folks.

Half Million Protest Stolen Election in Iran

Guardian: Reports that half million people marched in the silent protest today. I expect the religious elite have made their choice, they are going to support President Ahmadinejad, thus expect more arrests of moderates and reformers. The Western Press will either be shut up in their rooms or sent backing from Iran. The communication out of Iran will be halted, lets be clear, the religious elite and Conservative elements know this could be the end of their time in power, thus they will use brute force to stay in power, even if it means taking Iran back to the dark ages. The problem is down the line they religious elite and the Conservative elements wont have the numbers, and when the revolution comes it wont be nice it will be bloody, the first people against the wall and shot will be those that prevent change this time. Freedom comes either through a process of elections or violence, at the end of the day people want freedom, if you stall or try to steal it you are heading for a massive fall, sooner or later it will happen, thus expect Ahmadinejad to hold on to power but expect a bloody revolution down the line.

Silent Protest in Iran, What Next ?

Telegraph: Reports on a silent protest in Iran to demonstrate against the presumed stolen election. The question is what next, there is a call for a massive demos tomorrow, but then what, at the end of the day Ahmadinejad has the Army, the Police and other security forces. The question the opposition has to ask, is this about changing faces or changing regime. It can be advised that if it its about changing faces there is not point getting hurt or killed, it will be the same hard edge Islamic regime. On the other hand it its about a change of regime then this is the time to get out on the streets, make contact with the Army and Police who want change and get them to use force in support of change, that is the choice, this fight can only end in two ways. The positive way is that we see a change of regime, an Iran that is part of the 21 Century with the freedoms that the people want, or a repressive regime that will drag Iran in to a conflict with the USA and Israel.

Iran CRITICAL of USA over Election

The New York Times: Reports that Iran has been critical of the USA over its response to the election in Iran. It can be argued that Obama has been more Jimmy Carter than Reagan, he has stressed that the opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi has the same Foreign Policy as President Ahmadinejad, Mr Mousavi wants a nuclear armed Iran. President Obama and his Iran policy works better with Mr Ahmadinejad as President, he had denied that the Holocaust and now stolen an election. Thus the Obama Administration can go to the UN at the end of the year and state that Iran is going nuclear thus a threat to the region and world security and that the Ahmadinejad regime has stolen a domestic election. Thus in pure power politics terms the Obama Administration needs Ahmadinejad to stay as President, also Ahmadinejad wants to stay in power, thus the use of the Anti - American Card. As stated many times on this blog, Israel will have to clean up the mess, it will have to strike Iran before it goes nuclear.