IBD/TIPP: The final poll of the 08 race by the most accurate pollster of 04. A clear Obama win by 7.2%. The final poll of 08 has the following result, Obama 51.5% - McCain 44.3%. Tonight will be a clear win for Obama, he will have a clear mandate for change. The New Democratic President and his Majority hold of Congress will allow Obama to take America the way he wants with little resistance from the Republicans. The downside of course is that if Obama makes a mess of his first two years, the Republicans can come back in 2010. Thus the Transition period is very important for Obama, lets recall the mess Bill Clinton did of this period. The naming of his Cabinet will be interesting, if he governs from the Centre he should face an easy re - election, should he govern from the left then will become another Jimmy Carter, Bush 41, Presidents who served only one term. Its going to be a fun year folks, a new President a new Agenda, also the Republicans will be searching for a new Ronald Reagan for 2012.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Monday, November 03, 2008
Exit Polls
Forbes: Great Article on Exit Polls, should be read if your a political junkie. I recall looking for information on Exit Polls in 2004, early on election night I thought Kerry has won but then the actual vote came through, thus it is important when you look at the early Exit Polls, yes they will leak, to recall they are a snap shot of a period of time, also they can be wrong, thus Obama might look likes he on to a landslide but the end result is more of a narrow win, lets say around 6%, not that I would want that result just to confirm my prediction! Read of the Day.
New Poll - Obama Winner Part Two
IBD/TIPP: The latest tracking poll from the most accurate pollster of 2004 has the following result, Obama 48% - McCain 43%. The Obama lead is 5%, 1% less than my prediction of a 6% Obama win over McCain. Thus Virgina is an early test, that closes at 7pm USA time, around 12am UK time. If Obama wins big expected, Florida and Ohio to go to Obama. If the result is closer expect a longer night, the result wont be different a Obama win but will make election night more interesting for political junkies. The early indications will be the Exit Polls, but lets recall Kerry was winning in 2004 before the Republicans voted later in the day. See you on election night folks.
New Poll - Obama the Winner
Fox News: Has a new poll out, Obama well ahead of McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 43%. The 7% if followed in the state votes should give Obama a landslide in the Electoral College. As the seven percent lead is in line with my prediction; just one percent more by Fox; it can be argued that this election will be over early on Tuesday night in America. The New Obama Administration will have a lot on its plate, as stated in the LA Times the new President Elect could be tested in Iraq by the terrorists. When Obama comes in to power in 2009 expect either the terrorists or a rogue nation to test the President, it can be postulated that the terrorists will test the President in Afghanistan and Iraq. They will try to see his weak spots, how does he react under pressure, it will be an interesting year.
Electoral College Prediction 08
I have made the following predictions for the popular vote, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. On the Electoral College Side I have the following prediction, Obama 311 - McCain 227. After looking at the polls and the ground work done by the Obama Campaign it can be argued that Obama should take Ohio.
The Voter and the TRUTH ?
The Times: A very interesting article on how truthful voters are to pollsters. Also uses the example of the UK in 1992, Labour was meant to win but the old UK voter lead the pollsters a merry dance. I would be very surprised if all the polls in the USA had this wrong, the margin of victory for Obama should be close. As stated my prediction is a six percent win for Obama not the double digit win. That the fun of elections and polls, lets see which pollster has egg on his or her face the following day.
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