Russian Provocation of Ukraine - Ukraine Latest

BBC News - Ukraine Live: Reports the following in its 8.20pm post, " More from interim President Turchynov: "I personally appeal to President Putin to immediately stop military provocation and to withdraw from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea... It's a naked aggression against Ukraine," he was reported by AFP to have told reporters. ".

Lets Get Real:

It seems the Kremlin is trying to push the Kiev Government to take some kind of action then it can send in extra troops on top of the troops that have taken the local Parliament, Airports, Cost Guard Base and the local Crimean TV Station in the East Ukraine.    Lets be very clear here, one can argue that the Crimea is part of the real Russia, its a political accident of the 1950s that Crimea was given to the Ukraine, the Kiev Government should cut it losses, decide to recall its name as  West Ukraine, push the EU to grant it membership access due to the problems in the West.   The US/EU/IMF should fund  West Ukraine, the US and the West is not going to War over the Crimea, its not worth it, if the East wants to be under Putin let them learn the negatives in their own time, not on the dime of the West.   100 years since 1914, lets not make that mistake again. 

Former President of Ukraine Yankovych is in Moscow, - Great Russian Threat

Telegraph: Reports the following from the Ukraine, " Viktor Yanukovych 'is in Moscow', says Russian news agency ".

Lets Get Real:

On the whole the above might be for the best, if the former President did end up in a Court, one can postulate that he would blame pressure from Russia for the shootings in the Ukraine, that would even further sour the relationship between the US and Russia.   One can postulate but not a 100% that Putin will keep the former President at some distance and away from the press, the idea to place the Russian Army on alert will get the attention of Kiev and Washington D.C, the problem is that Moscow can not be sure it will get a 100% welcome in the East of the Ukraine should it take action, and the international reaction will be BAD, the Oval will have a hard time keeping the relationship going, it needs that for Syria and Iran.  Interesting days and weeks ahead for the Ukraine. 

Russian THREAT to Ukraine - Great Russian Threat

Guardian: Reports the following from the Ukraine, " Russia puts military on high alert as Crimea protests leave one man dead ".

Lets Get Real:

No one would be surprised if the Russians invaded the East of the Ukraine, it full of native Russians with Russian passports give out by the Moscow, also the Russian Navel fleet is stationed there, thus can Moscow afford to lose the Ukraine.   The Oval has warned Moscow about taking action, but if your Putin you must be laughing, Obama never follows through, see Syria.   The Oval stands up to Republicans but folds when it comes to Iran and Russia, thus if Russia does take action, one can expect refugees to head to neighbouring countries, and they are NATO countries.   Lets hope history is not repeating itself, the World can not afford another 1914. 

Withdrawal TALK Damage to US Troops - Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports the following from Afghanistan, " US Army boss: Afghan pullout talk may encourage Taliban ".

Lets Get Real:

The Taliban from their view have already won, they have waited Obama and the US out, if the US leaves a small force in Afghanistan they will become target practice for Al Qaeda and the Taliban, thus another defeat for the West.   The US and its Allies should just get out, there is no way they can defend a new Afghan Government, your in either in or out in Afghanistan, leaving a small force just makes you a target, just ask British Imperial planners of the 19th Century.   When it comes to Afghanistan every great power thinks they are asking new questions, they are not, at the end of the day the British learned ONE lesson, keep out of having a ground presence in Afghanistan, make any threat aware that the Empire will react, either through small units taking action, or later using planes.    Let the Afghan do their internal stuff any way they like, your not going to make it New York.    The Oval should just get out and use drones, make Afghanistan a free fire zone, yes its brutal but it works. 

Russians on the MOVE in East Ukraine? - Ukraine Crisis

Telegraph - Ukraine Live: Reports the following in its 6.08pm post, " Two armoured personnel carriers have been deployed near Russian military installations in Ukraine's second port of Sebastopol as hundreds of protesters rallied in the Crimean Peninsula city...".

Lets Get Real:

The Crimea is really part of Russia, has been since the time of the Tsars, the Crimea was given to the Ukraine in the 1950s in the time of the old USSR.   Thus it can be argued from the viewpoint of Moscow that should they invade or go in to protect their citizens they are doing nothing wrong, of course those parts of West Ukraine that were part of Poland might want to join a Poland this now part of NATO and the EU.   The worse outlook for the Ukraine is that it sees parts of itself go their own way, due to past historical trends.    Thus the new Government in the Kiev needs to get its act together, otherwise it might have external and internal threats to deal with, a crisis can lead to events that are outside the control of various political leaders. 

Hague Trial for former Ukraine President Yanukovych - Ukraine Latest

Guardian: Reports the following from the Ukraine, " Interim government wants fugitive president, believed to be in hiding in Crimea, to be tried over violence that left 82 dead ".

Lets Get Real:

One suspects that Yanukovych is either in Russia now or close to getting out, Putin would not want him opening him mouth to an International Court, one suspects that the former President would blame the deaths in the Ukraine on President Putin, that could cause a crisis in itself between the powers.   The Russians on the PR front have been negative, but they have not taken any military action yet, are they playing the long game, it knows that Obama and the rest of the World Press will lose interest in the long term, with fresh elections coming to the Ukraine the attention of the press will turn to the next crisis, there is always Iran and Syria.   One can suspect that Putin will use his oil money to get a candidate who is not overly hostile to Russia, and a Ukraine in the EU might have long term positives, Putin wants to be a power in the West, and Ukraine might be his decoy in to the EU. 

President Obama and Afghanistan

The White House: Read out of telephone call between President Obama and President Karzai of Afghanistan.    On the future relationship between the US and Afghanistan the President stated the following, " With regard to the Bilateral Security Agreement, in advance of the NATO Defense Ministerial, President Obama told President Karzai that because he has demonstrated that it is unlikely that he will sign the BSA, the United States is moving forward with additional contingency planning. Specifically, President Obama has asked the Pentagon to ensure that it has adequate plans in place to accomplish an orderly withdrawal by the end of the year should the United States not keep any troops in Afghanistan after 2014. At the same time, should we have a BSA and a willing and committed partner in the Afghan government, a limited post-2014 mission focused on training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces and going after the remnants of core Al Qaeda could be in the interests of the United States and Afghanistan. Therefore, we will leave open the possibility of concluding a BSA with Afghanistan later this year.  However, the longer we go without a BSA, the more challenging it will be to plan and execute any U.S. mission. Furthermore, the longer we go without a BSA, the more likely it will be that any post-2014 U.S. mission will be smaller in scale and ambition. ".

Lets Get Real:

In the history of powers getting out of Afghanistan, the above statement that the US wants to keep troops in Afghanistan post 2014 must be the most foolish, any force left behind would come under the attack of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, what happens if these two forces are at the gates of Kabul, does the US just leave or does it find itself having to defend the new Government.   Lets hope Karzai gives the US a good reason to leave, otherwise the US will be stuck in Kabul and become target practice for various terrorists groups that will develop in Afghanistan.   The US should rent bases from the Government of Pakistan and just fly drones over Afghanistan, let it become a free fire zone, that will be a clear message, if your a threat your dead, simple and it has a tradition, the British Empire used to send over planes and drop bombs if the locals became a problem, will Obama learn this lesson, one doubts, its always hubris with THE Oval.