Polls Warning

CNN: A excellent article on taking Polls are a sure guide to election outcomes. I recall 1992 and the Labour victory, yes they lost. Must Read of the day.

Pressure on Iran

BBC: Reports that both the USA and France will work together to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear armed power. The point will come when diplomacy fails and it will fail, will France back up its words with military support should the USA, UK have to attack Iran by air next year.

Good News from Iraq ?

New York Times: Reports that Al Qaeda has been outed from Baghdad, but as with he NYT it is important to understand the context, the troops can come home, the political discussion in Iraq at national level is still not working, the fighting has left the Capital for the towns outside the surge. Thus even with good news the NYT can help itself has to go negative, if Christ come down in Iraq the NYT would recall the fact that he was from Israel.

New Iowa Poll

A new poll by the respected pollster, Zogby International in Iowa. This poll shows a very close race. What's very interesting about the Poll that Zogby does something very different that other polling groups so far haven't done, after the first round of the Iowa voting those under 15% are eliminated. The Second round votes are then given to other candidates. Zogby shows the first and second round votes and its close folks.

The First Round of Voting:

Clinton 28%

Obama 25%

Edwards 21%

The Second Round Voting:

Clinton 30 %

Obama 29 %

Edwards 27 %

If Obama and Edwards can over take Clinton and force her in to third place then Obama has a major chance of winning the nomination in 2008. Obama has to be in Iowa 24/7 for the next couple of weeks, he should cancel Xmas and New Year celebrations, this is his chance to win.

Advice to the Hillary Campaign

New York Times: Reports on the aftermath of the bad performance of Hillary Clinton at the previous Democratic Debate. Bill Clinton has come in to the battle, comparing the attacks on Hillary to the attacks on Senator Kerry a War Hero in the 2004 Presidential Election. This has gone down like a lead balloon with those running for the Democratic Nomination. Here is the advice to the Hillary Clinton Campaign, keep Bill out of it, does you no good, makes Hillary Clinton look weak, she will be the First Woman running for President during a time of War, a weak woman wont cut with those voting, harsh but true, politics is a harsh but in the end a truthful business. Thus Let Hillary Clinton fight her own battles, keep Bill in reserve for part of the country that's still loves him. I hate bad politics of any kind, so let Hillary be Hillary.

Prediction for the Republicans

Pat Robertson has endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President. As a leading Christian Social Conservative within the Republican Party, this could help Giuliani gain the Presidential Nomination in 2008.

Something in the Air !!

Sometimes you get a gut instinct, the bad performance debate of Hillary Clinton has been a running story for days now, there is something in the Air, could Hillary Clinton lose the nomination to Obama. I have tended to support Obama in this blog, but with doubts if he had the fire in the belly to win, but sometimes a candidate can win not because of his or her actions but due to the failures of the others in the race. As stated in previous posts Clinton has found herself in hole that she dug for herself, giving driving licences to illegal immigrants; the Republicans will use that every hour of every day; the refusal to release her papers as First Lady; dont run on previous experience if you cant show the files; and thirdly hiding behind her husband; think Lady Thatcher doing something like that; hell would have to freeze over and then she would not; Clinton cant afford any more mistakes or its over.

The effect or rot has started, The Politico reports on a new Rasmussen Poll in New Hampshire, Clinton had lead of 16 points before the debate its now down to 10. Clinton 34% and Obama on 24 %. Obama should move to Iowa and win, 24/7 Campaign every door every day. This could be the time for Obama to win the nomination in 2008.