Statement by the President on the Murder of Boris Nemtsov

The White House: Has a released a statement by President Obama on the murder of Boris Nemtsov, the statement states the following, " The United States condemns the brutal murder of Boris Nemtsov, and we call upon the Russian government to conduct a prompt, impartial, and transparent investigation into the circumstances of his murder and ensure that those responsible for this vicious killing are brought to justice.  Nemtsov was a tireless advocate for his country, seeking for his fellow Russian citizens the rights to which all people are entitled.  I admired Nemtsov’s courageous dedication to the struggle against corruption in Russia and appreciated his willingness to share his candid views with me when we met in Moscow in 2009.  We offer our sincere condolences to Boris Efimovich’s family, and to the Russian people, who have lost one of the most dedicated and eloquent defenders of their rights. "

Lets Get Real:

One does not have to be Mr Holmes to see who the White House think is behind the murder, the question is HOW will the the Kremlin react, will it find a puppet to throw to the wolves or will the murder become another Cold Case in Putin's Russia.   If this wa a move by the Kremlin it was a bad strategic move, it just recalls the fact that Russia has become seen as a BAD ACTOR on the World Stage.   When it comes to Putin's Russia there is no giving them the benefit of the doubt, never trust a former KGB Officer who thinks the end of the USSR was a tragic event in Russian history. 

Boris Nemtsov A Profile - Putin's Russia

BBC News: Reports " Boris Nemtsov, who has been shot dead in Moscow at the age of 55, was a charismatic figure within Russian politics, a liberal reformer who rose to prominence under Boris Yeltsin and became a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin. "

Lets Get Real:

It will be interesting to see if there will be a REAL investigation, at this point the Putin Regime has to show it has no link to the murder, the action of President Putin from Georgia to East Ukraine and other acts of terror show that the Putin Administration is not held back by normal human values, this is the same Country that gave the Russian rebels the ability to shoot down a  plane over East Ukraine.   The Kremlin could fear that a bad economy could give support to the Russian opposition, better to take out threats before they can lead a successful opposition to the Putin Regime.   Once KGB always KGB. 

Obama on the passing of Leonard Nimoy

The White House: Has a Statement from President Obama on the death of Leonard Nimoy, " Long before being nerdy was cool, there was Leonard Nimoy.  Leonard was a lifelong lover of the arts and humanities, a supporter of the sciences, generous with his talent and his time.  And of course, Leonard was Spock.  Cool, logical, big-eared and level-headed, the center of Star Trek’s optimistic, inclusive vision of humanity’s future.

 

I loved Spock.

 

In 2007, I had the chance to meet Leonard in person.  It was only logical to greet him with the Vulcan salute, the universal sign for “Live long and prosper.”  And after 83 years on this planet – and on his visits to many others – it’s clear Leonard Nimoy did just that.  Michelle and I join his family, friends, and countless fans who miss him so dearly today. "

Lets Get Real:

This is a very moving statement by President Obama, its a day not for politics but recalling a great artist, Mr Nimoy will always be Spock, it can be argued that Spock's eyebrow would have gone up at all this praise and say " fascinating ".   In this case the praise is deserved, the arts and us as humans are better off because of Mr Spock, as Captain Kirk might have said " We are all human, even aliens ".  Live Long and Prosper ALL. 

Leonard Nimoy A Profile

BBC News: Has a profile of the great Star Trek actor Leonard Nimoy who died today.

Lets Get Real:

It is sad day if your a fan of Star Trek and the arts, Mr Nimoy was a man of great intelligence, and bought the half Vulcan and half Human Spock to life.   This blog has always thought that the success of Kirk and Spock was down to the political climate of the US at the time.   In 1963 Kennedy was killed in Dallas and then there was Vietnam.  In 1966 the USS Enterprise and its five year missio was bougt to TV.  For future generations Kirk would represent the heoric view of JFK and then the less known facts about his private life, Kirk always had a woman on the go!  While Spock represnted it can be argued Bobby Kennedy, as he was seen in the start of the 60s, the cold ruthless brother.  Kirk and Spock had heroic aspects but they also had their down sides, that made them human and also appealing for the generations that have seen them since the 60s.   Thus a sad day for the Nimoy family and friends and for the arts, LLAP all Star Trek fans. 

Ukraine Latest - Ukraine Crisis

Guardian: Reports " Britain to send military advisers to Ukraine, announces Cameron..Prime minister says service personnel to provide infantry training as well as advice on logistics, medical care and tactical intelligence "

Lets Get Real:

This is a good clear message from the West, that the UK will not allow East Ukraine to become another Crimea, the question is what next, when the Russian rebels push to take more land as to allow a land access from Mother Russia to the Crimea, what will the US, UK do about this threat.   The West has to place arms in the hands of the Kiev Government and even draw a red line, and mean it, the Russian bear is looking for weakness, the use of only economic sanctions has not worked, the Russians economy really needs to hurt before the Kremlin moves for better relationship with the West, the Russian Bear needs its claws clipped.   Thus better tough action NOW, not regret in the future. 

Ukraine Latest - Ukraine Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " Ukraine 'will not withdraw heavy artillery from the front line'

The decision by Kiev comes after two Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 10 wounded over a 24 hour period on Sunday and Monday "

Lets Get Real:

The Russian rebels want a land route to Crimea, even with their military advances with the help of the Russians they still need other areas of East Ukraine, such as Mariupol, thus expect more fighting, the Russian rebels might not totally be under the control of Putin, but the Kremlin should have the ability to stop its own soldiers, IF Putin can not do that one would have to ask how much power Putin really has, lets see what happens over the next few days, the fate of Mariupol might decide the fate of East Ukraine within the State of  the Ukraine. 

US and Iran - Iran Crisis

Guardian: Reports " Iran reports that differences remain after John Kerry and Mohammad Javad Zarif meet for two hours  "

Lets Get Real:

At the moment the US has to much on its plate, there is Russia in the East Ukraine and its Russian rebels,  then we have IS in Iraq and Syria, the US at this moment share the same enemy with Iran, that being IS.   IF a REAL deal can be made then the Oval Office has to make sure that any deal passes the smell test, as the Gipper said of the late USSR, Trust but verify, any deal has to check that Tehran does not cheat, it would be a total disaster for President Obama if Iran got a deal and then declared within a few years that it had the bomb, of course Israel might decide that its a risk it will not take and bomb Iran.   Thus the US needs a tough deal that can pass the Senate, anything else and Obama will be seen as an appeaser of Iran. 

Cash for Access? - MPs Scandal

BBC News: Reports on the scandal of former British Foreign Secretaries Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Jack Straw, the article notes the following, " Sir Malcolm and another former foreign secretary, Jack Straw, who was also filmed, say they have broken no rules. "

Lets Get Real:

This is more a political problem for the Conservative Party as Sir Malcolm is standing in the 2015 election, while Jack Straw is leaving the House of Commons after the General Election.   From seeing some of the video footage this is more about old politicians wanting to make sure that they earn enough money while in the House of Commons and can take care of their personal finances after leaving front line politics.   The phrases used by both politicians is not great, " under the radar " with Jack Straw and " self employed " by Sir Malcolm.   The punishment should be a public rebuke and lets deal with real issues, MPs are real people with the same concerns as the rest of us, we all want to make money and we all want to retire with a good pension. 

Retaking Mosul in Iraq - The New War on Terror

The New York Times: Reports " American intelligence agencies and the Pentagon are struggling to determine how difficult it will be to retake Mosul, the Islamic State’s de facto capital in Iraq, as planning intensifies for a battle that is becoming a major test of the Obama administration’s strategy to stop the spread of the terrorist group in the Middle East. "

Lets Get Real:

In many respects Mosul could decide the result of the 2016 Presidential Election, the Oval can not afford for its Iraqi Allies to start a fight for Mosul and lose, that would be a disaster for the new Iraqi Government and for the Obama Administration, in other words the US has to win, the release of the US battle plan was to intelligent for its own good, the IS terrorists will want to make the Iraqi and US forces pay for any action in Mosul.  The Oval has to be careful about placing US forces at the front, the best outcome for IS would be to make Iraqi pay with the death of its soldiers and for IS to take US prisoners of war, one only has to recall what happened to the pilot from Jordan who was burned to death.   The IS will want to inflame US public opinion, thus the Oval Office if it places US forces in combat positions will want to make sure they are secured on the battle front.   Mosul is the test, will only US air power work, can the Iraqi forces fight on their own.  The battle for Mosul could decide the future of Iraq and the US Presidential Election. 

Is Hillary Clinton the " New Nixon " - 2016 Election

CNN - Politics: Reports " Hillary Clinton's Nixonian strategy of lying low "

Lets Get Real:

As noted in the article few US politicians  want to be compared to tricky Dicky Nixon.   But in this case one can see the argument, Nixon lost his bid for Presidency in 1960 and then in 62 lost his bid to be Governor of California.  In the case of Hillary Clinton she was the front runner for the 2008 Democratic nomination, but lost to then Senator Obama, after that she become his Secretary of State, that could cause problems in the 2016 race if the Obama record does not improve when it comes to the Middle East and Russia.  Thus far the Clinton Camp face no REAL threats to her getting the nomination, VP Biden is a joke and Senator Warren does not want to go up against the Clinton machine, that shows some clever politics, she could be trying out for the VP spot, two women running would be a bold move by the Democrats.   The liberal elite media are throwing their political arrows at the Republicans, they are doing the job for the Democrats, thus when HRC does get in to the race she will look fresh, will have the left wing media on her side, thus far wise tactics by the Clinton Camp. 

You can keep the your Trojan Horse Greece -Germany - Greek Crisis

Telegraph - Live Blog: Reports in its 7.20pm the following post, "  From Channel 4's economics editor Paul Mason: "This is - if reports are true - complete capitulation for now from Greece, doesn't solve the fundamental problems." "

Lets Get Real:

Thus you have two views of the Greek crisis, that Greece has won by pushing the issue down the road, will the EU really go through this again if Greece does not meet the demands of the the EU, does Germany want another battle that keeps the issue on the table, it does not want to see the other Countries who have had economic support request a better deal.   It appears that Greece has lost, but there is always a but when it comes to the EU, how will the new Greek PM sell the deal, can he sell the deal to the Greek people, will the Germans make sure that their voters know that they did not give an inch on their demands.   Thus a typical EU fudge, there will be another crisis, there is always. 

After all the Shouting its over, Greece wins - Greek Crisis

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its view its the Germans who have won, the 7.31pm post states the following on the Greek PM, " ...Tsipras had made been forced to make concessions, he will face uproar on the domestic front, not least from militants in his radical left Syriza party and disappointed voters.  "

Lets Get Real: If the Germans have been tough it is because they do not want to deal with the other Countries who have had economic support coming back and requesting a better deal.  The deal sounds like a fudge, the economic support for Greece will only last for four months, not the six the new Greek Government wanted, also they have to develop a plan by monday to reduce the role of the State in Greeks affairs.   It easy to promise things on the campaign trail, when your in Office its quite different, lets see if Ed Miliband learns that lesson before the May General Election. 

Greek Bailout Deal - Greek Crisis

BBC News: Reports " Greece and its eurozone creditors appear to be nearing a bailout deal as finance ministers meet in Brussels. "

Lets Get Real:

It seems that we have the typical Euro fix, it will be complicated and you will have to read the small print to see who has won, one can postulate that the left wing Greek Government has moved enough that it allows Germany to say that the EU is following in the lines of the past agreement while getting the fact that the Greek people have elected a new government.   This will be a short term fix, it will not solve the problem, the spending of the Southern Countries of the EU will cause more problems for Germany and the EU.   In it can be argued that Greece has won, it called the bluff of Germany, there will be others, Ireland, Spain and Italy.   

At what point do the Greek Banks go bust - Greek Crisis

Telegraph - Live Blog: Reports the following in its 7pm post " The ECB is ready to tell Greek banks they have to reduce their holdings of the country's sovereign debt, should there remain little progress on agreeing a new bail-out, according to a report from Bloomberg.....Greek banks are the main holders of the country's short-term Treasury bills. The new government has asked for permission to raise temporary funds through issuing such paper, as part of plans for a "bridging loan."  That looks unlikely to be granted if the ECB is demanding Greek banks lessen their exposure to the country's sovereign debt. "

Lets Get Real:

The Germans are standing tough on the bailout structure for Greece, they do not see why the German taxpayer should pay for the left wing promises of a left wing Government, Berlin should demand that the Greeks keep to past promises, otherwise other left wing Parties in Europe will make the same promises to get in to power and expect the Northern rich countries to pay for the left wing polices of Southern Countries.    The EU can not have fiscal union without political union, different tax rates and welfare structures will cause internal trouble and sooner not later, and cause the Euro to be called in to question and the EU.   The EU can not remove political reality, if Spain or Italy go bust it is ALL OVER, it is that simple.  The Germans in this case should find their inner Prussian and stand tough. 

Ukraine Latest - Ukraine Crisis

Guardian: Reports " For all the flaws of the ceasefire, it is probably more attractive to Kiev and European capitals than a full-blown resumption of a conflict that has already claimed over 5,000 lives in 10 months. "

Lets Get Real:

A Cold ceasefire with the odd hot flashpoint might be the best deal for the West and Russia, the question is can President Putin keep his nose out of the Baltic States and Poland.   The Kremlin has seen the West weak and seeking to appease Russia,  what if they try to get the Russian minority in Baltic States to push for closer links with Russia, what if they send soldiers and tanks to help the Russians in the Baltic States, that is the most important line in this crisis, this would force the West to ACT, even with military support, the Baltic States are part of NATO, and its one basic line is, an attack on one is an attack on all, does the Kremlin still get that or does it think it can push and get the Baltic States back, like they have gotten the Crimea and East Ukraine.   The Ukraine Crisis is the most important crisis facing the US and the West, followed by IS.    The West has to find its backbone and deal with both. 

Greek Crisis Latest - Greek Crisis

BBC News: Reports " Germany has rejected a Greek request for a six-month extension to its eurozone loan programme. "

Lets Get Real:

The Greek crisis is showing seeds of mistrust between Germany and the EU, the EU elite want to keep Greece in the Euro at any cost, the problem is that they want the German taxpayer to pay for the political promises of a left wing Greek Government.   The problem for Berlin is that if they let Greece off the hook they will have Ireland, Italy, Spain asking for the same benefits, that means printing more money, and you get Weimar Germany on a bigger scale.    The Germans have to stand firm, even be seen as hard, the small tail of Greece can not run the EU or it is finished. 

What NOW for the Kiev Government - Ukraine Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " Defeated Ukrainians take the 'road of life' on their retreat from Debaltseve..Dispatch: Military disaster for Ukraine as defeated soldiers flee Debaltseve, while pro-Russian rebels raise their flag over the town marking the end of month-long battle "

Lets Get Real:

Thus a victory for the Russian rebels in East Ukraine and for Putin's Russia, the question that has to be asked, could the US have done more, the answer is YES, they could have armed the Kiev Government, the EU could not have taken a policy to appease Russia, and the Army of the Ukraine should not fight in battles that leaves them this exposed and facing defeat.   Thus will the Russians rebels keep to the Minsk peace deal, one would think for a time, they want to regroup and make sure their next push will take more land from the Kiev Government and open a land route to the Crimea.   The US should arm the Kiev Government, but it wont, Obama is weak and Putin's knows how run around him.   The EU will be happy with a peace deal that benefits Russia, they have no backbone, what a say day to be a European. 

US warns Greece - Greek Crisis

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports that the US has warned the Greek Finance  Minister  " ..Yanis Varoufakis that he needs to reach a ‘constructive deal’ soon.."

Lets Get Real:

The Greeks lied to get in to the Euro, the cooked the books, now the chickens have come home and they expect the Germans to pay for the promises of the left wing government in Greece.   As stated a few times either one side blinks and folds or the Greeks are OUT of the Euro.   The pain it would cause Greece would force the EU to bailout them out again, the EU will not see Greek people with no money, that makes BAD TV if good for the ratings and a holiday in Greece.   The Classic Greeks would hold their heads in shame to see present Greece, so is a fudge deal better than no deal, YES for the Greeks, NO from the Germans, the Greeks have not helped themselves by bring up World War 2, that goes down like a tone of bricks in Berlin.   Only the UK can use War guilt on the Germans, we beat them twice, the Greeks had to be saved, there is a difference. 

Greece Latest - Greek Crisis

BBC News: Reports " The European Central Bank has reportedly agreed to raise the emergency funding available to Greek banks to €68.3bn (£50.3bn). "

Lets Get Real:

This is crunch time for Greece and the EU in the shape of Germany, one has to blink or the end result will be Greece out of the Euro, the structure of the Euro under attack and the EU in the end having to support an bankrupt Greece.   If the Greeks leave the Euro it will hurt for a short time, but then Greece can rebuild their economy how they want with their own money.   The time is short, who will blink first, a fudged deal could cause more damage, interesting times for the Greeks, there is talk that they might ask the Russias or China for a better deal, that would be a disaster for the EU, and it would be a victory for either Russia or China, they would have a foot in the EU structure.

Is Greece near the Brink of Leaving the Euro? - Greek Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " EU talks tough to Greece after debt talks collapse..Greek government brands proposed eurozone debt deal as "unacceptable", ending crunch talks with its creditors in dramatic events in Brussels "

Lets Get Real:

Either Greece or Germany has to blink, at this moment they are like two drunk drivers heading towards each other with the drunken view that the other will break and divert his car.   If Germany blinks it will see the printing of money by Greece and others, and the German tax payer will be expected to pay it, that could lead to the raise of the extreme right in Germany.  On the other hand, if Greece does not divert it could find itself out of the Euro or even the EU.   There are billions at stake here, the Germans are worried that France, Italy, Ireland will see Germany blink and ask for better terms of their deals.  Crunch time for the EU and Germany. 

The Ukraine the Latest - New Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " Pro-Russia and government forces fight for control of Debaltseve, with Ukrainian military saying rebels have fired on its troops 112 times in last 24 hours "

Lets Get Real:

The Russians want a free path from mother Russia to the Crimea, they want to control the land route through road and train access, thus the violations of the the Minsk agreement.  The Kiev Government have to hold Debaltseve, if they can this will force the US to arm the Government East Ukraine forces, the Oval Office is under pressure from the US Congress to do something.   As stated the Minsk agreement had a 50/50 chance of working, at this rate it will be another failure, terrible times in East Ukraine. 

What to do about Libya? - The New War on Terror

BBC News: Reports " Egypt has called on the international community to intervene against Islamic State (IS) militants in Libya....Egyptian jets bombed IS targets in response to a militant video of the apparent beheadings of 21 Egyptian Christians. "

Lets Get Real:

The threat IS is all over the Middle East and Africa, the international community through the UN should take on the issue, even create an international force to take out IS in areas not under attack by the West, the US and its allies are taking the War to the IS in Syria and Iraq, the UN should create a new force with the sole aim of the destruction of IS within 5 years. At some point the UN has to earn  its  keep, even Iran hates IS.   The more the West waits the more IS will grow, then Western ground troops will be needed to remove IS, do Western governments want to imagine Western troops as prisoners of War under the control of IS.   Thus TIME FOR ACTION by the West. 

The Growth of IS - The New War on Terror

The New York Times: Reports " The Islamic State is expanding beyond its base in Syria and Iraq to establish militant affiliates in Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt and Libya, American intelligence officials assert, raising the prospect of a new global war on terror. "

Lets Get Real:

The major strategic mistake of the Obama Administration in 2011 was to leave Iraq, after the US left we see the growth if IS from Syria to Iraq and now to the above Countries.    The US still has around ten thousand troops in Afghanistan, thus they back back up the Afghan Government and forces, in Egypt the new President has cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood and is fighting IS. in Libya its a mess, that what happens after you lead from behind.  In Yemen the US backed government has fallen to a Iran back group, while Al Qaeda has moved to take over Yemeni military bases.    The perception of success in Yemen as stated by the Obama Oval is now another Tehran gain.    The next US President, be he or she will have  a tough job after the mess of the Obama years, in a few months we see the result of the Iran talks, there is fear in Israel that Obama will take a BAD deal over no deal, thus that could lead to Israel bombing Iran.   Tense days ahead in the Middle East. 

Ukraine Latest 2 - The Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " The fighting in east Ukraine dropped in intensity on Sunday, ...still saw fighting, especially around the contested town of Debaltseve. "

Lets Get Real:

The US, EU will have to keep constant pressure on the Russians to keep to their word,  the Russians if they play this clever have a lot to gain, the East Ukraine crisis will be off the 24/7 news cycle, the EU will want to cut the number of sanctions on Russia, well those close neighbours of Russia will want to ease these sanctions, then after a few months the Russians can push for Kiev, lets recall President Putin sees Ukraine as part of mother Russia, thus it is his backyard from the viewpoint of the Kremlin.    Lets see if the French and Germans can hold a leadership role in th EU and outside it, interesting times ahead. 

East Ukriane at Peace! - The New Cold War 2

BBC News: Reports " Fighting in east Ukraine has subsided but not stopped since a ceasefire came into effect, the warring parties say. "

Lets Get Real: 

It will take a few days to see if the peace deal holds, can the Russians control the Russian rebels in East Ukraine, how much notice of the peace deal with the Russians take, they want a land route to the Crimea, they need to go through Kiev held towns, the US has warned already that it has seen that the Russians have broken the peace deal, the article notes the following " The US, which has warned it could begin supplying arms to Ukraine if the peace initiative failed, claimed on Saturday it had evidence that the Russian military had deployed weaponry around Debaltseve  ".   If the peace deals falls apart the Oval Office will come under pressure from, Republicans and Democrats to arm the Kiev Government,  thus the WAR in East Ukraine would become a proxy war between the US and Russia. 

Ukraine Latest Part 2 - The New Cold War 2

The New York Times: Reports that the US has accused Russia of " massing artillery and rocket systems around a contested town in eastern Ukraine and joining pro-Russian rebels in attacking Ukrainian forces, calling such actions a violation of the spirit of a cease-fire agreement signed just one day earlier. "

Lets Get Real:

It is simple strategy, the Russians want a land route to the Crimea and to hold as much of Eastern Ukraine as they can, thus they will  have a VETO on any plans of the Western Kiev Government to joint NATO or the EU.  One can expect PR of tanks and soldiers moving out of East Ukraine, but this will be just PR, the Kremlin will make sure its allies have the heavy weapons needed to keep the fight on going, when the TV news is covering another crisis the Russians will move back in, one would not be surprised to see the Russians going for Kiev later in the year.    The Russian bear and its claws can not be trusted, the only old good Russian bear is one that has been put in its place, in other words real military and economic threats from the US and the EU.   This crisis in Eastern Europe is not over, there will be more deaths, it even could lead to a hot war in Europe.  Leaders have not learned from the 1930s. 

Fighting in Eastern Europe, Latest - The New Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " EU leaders sceptical about ceasefire due to begin on Sunday, while Ukrainian and pro-Russia forces jostle for advantage "

Lets Get Real:

The Russians want to gain are much ground in East Ukriane before the Minsk ceasefire comes in to force, the Kiev Government wants to hold the land it has and regain some of the land it lost after the 1st ceasefire agreement failed.   As stated by this blog the new deal has about 50/50 chance of working.   The West, and that includes the US and the EU has to be ready to force the Russians to back off, the Russian bear needs his paws slapped hard, that means more and tougher economic sanctions.   Interesting few days ahead in East Ukriane. 

The US and the Minsk Agreement - New Cold Wart 2

The White House: Statement by the White House Press Secretary on the Minsk Agreement, " The United States welcomes the agreement reached today in Minsk by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group, which was endorsed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France.  The agreement represents a potentially significant step toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict and the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty consistent with the Minsk agreements from last September.  We especially appreciate the tireless efforts of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande to reach this new accord.  We call on all parties to carry out the commitments undertaken in today’s accord and the September agreements fully and without delay.  This agreement must now be followed by immediate, concrete steps to fulfill the commitments by all parties.  The cease-fire must be implemented and honored.  Heavy weapons must be withdrawn from the conflict zone, and Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its soldiers and military equipment from eastern Ukraine.  The true test of today’s accord will be in its full and unambiguous implementation, including the durable end of hostilities and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its border with Russia.  The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord.  "

Lets Get Real:

The important part of the statement is the following, " The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord. "  One can expect that NATO will be keeping an eye on Russia action, do they withdraw their troops and heavy weapons, do the sides keep to their agreements.   This is not a done deal, the last one failed within days, lets see if this was a real attempt at a deal or just PR stunt by the the Russians.    The Russian bear when it has its nose in something is very hard to get away, just ask Eastern Europe. 

Germany and Greece - The Greek Money Crisis

Telegraph - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.33post the following comments by Chancellor Merkel, " Europe is always geared to compromise. Germany is ready for that. Nevertheless one has to say that Europe's credibility is based on sticking to the rules and that we are reliable," she told reporters in Brussels. "Now we will look which proposals Greece will make. Finance ministers will talk about it next Monday, we still have some days time."

Lets Get Real:

Either Germany or Greece blinks, if Germany blinks it will see the EU start to print money, sooner or later you get inflation and we will see the economic problems of Germany in the 1920 imposed on a larger area.    The Germany taxpayer is not going to pay for the political promises of Greece, if Germany allows this the left wing parties in Italy and France will offer the same deal, the Germans will pay for the political promises of other Countries, one would expect that the Germans would not be happy and they might turn to extreme Parties, yes people leaders never learn.   Berlin has to be tough, even if that means Greece leaving the Euro, it will be painful but its better than a compromise that leads to an economic disaster.   Time for Germany to take its place as a economic and military power. 

Ukraine Latest Part 2 - The New Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " In the short term, the Franco-German duo appears to have stopped the fighting – for now, at least – prevented further escalation, headed off US pressure to supply arms to Kiev, and dragged the recalcitrant Putin back onboard. Europe can breathe a brief sigh of relief.  But the Minsk achievement looks fragile in the extreme...."

Lets Get Real:

The thought that France and Germany solves a military problem will go down like a tone of bricks in Russia, one only has to look how far Russia is fallen, it has to agree terms from Germany and France, memories of World War 2 are still fresh in the Russian mind.  At one level it must be major humiliation for Putin,  once the might USSR being told what to do BY all people the Germans and Berlin.   Of course at the article notes the deal is fragile, it might never happen, will all parties agree to its conditions, will Russian troops leave East Ukraine, NATO will be looking, will the Eastern part of the Ukraine be given home rule from Kiev.   This deal is still 50/50, lets see what happens on the ground.  

IS War Resolution - 2nd Term Blues

The White House:  Releases the draft Congressional Resolution to fight IS, here it is full for the historical record, " JOINT RESOLUTION To authorize the limited use of the United States Armed Forces against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. *** Whereas the terrorist organization that has referred to itself as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and various other names (in this resolution referred to as ‘‘ISIL’’) poses a grave threat to the people and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria, regional stability, and the national security interests of the United States and its allies and partners; Whereas ISIL holds significant territory in Iraq and Syria and has stated its intention to seize more territory and demonstrated the capability to do so; Whereas ISIL leaders have stated that they intend to conduct terrorist attacks internationally, including against the United States, its citizens, and interests; Whereas ISIL has committed despicable acts of violence and mass executions against Muslims, regardless of sect, who do not subscribe to ISIL’s depraved, violent, and oppressive ideology; Whereas ISIL has threatened genocide and committed vicious acts of violence against religious and ethnic minority groups, including Iraqi Christian, Yezidi, and Turkmen populations; Whereas ISIL has targeted innocent women and girls with horrific acts of violence, including abduction, enslavement, torture, rape, and forced marriage; Whereas ISIL is responsible for the deaths of innocent United States citizens, including James Foley, Steven Sotloff, Abdul-Rahman Peter Kassig, and Kayla Mueller; Whereas the United States is working with regional and global allies and partners to degrade and defeat ISIL, to cut off its funding, to stop the flow of foreign fighters to its ranks, and to support local communities as they reject ISIL; Whereas the announcement of the anti-ISIL Coalition on September 5, 2014, during the NATO Summit in Wales, stated that ISIL poses a serious threat and should be countered by a broad international coalition; Whereas the United States calls on its allies and partners, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, that have not already done so to join and participate in the anti-ISIL Coalition; Whereas the United States has taken military action against ISIL in accordance with its inherent right of individual and collective self-defense;

Whereas President Obama has repeatedly expressed his commitment to working with Congress to pass a bipartisan authorization for the use of military force for the anti-ISIL military campaign; and Whereas President Obama has made clear that in this campaign it is more effective to use our unique capabilities in support of partners on the ground instead of large-scale deployments of U.S. ground forces: Now, therefore, be it Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. This joint resolution may be cited as the “Authorization for Use of Military Force against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.” SEC. 2. AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES. (a) AUTHORIZATION.—The President is authorized, subject to the limitatioons in subsection (c), to use the Armed Forces of the United States as the President determines to be necessary and appropriate against ISIL or associated persons or forces as defined in section 5. (b) WAR POWERS RESOLUTION REQUIREMENTS.— (1) SPECIFIC STATUTORY AUTHORIZATION.—Consistent with section 8(a)(1) of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1547(a)(1)), Congress declares that this section is intended to constitute specific statutory authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1544(b)). (2) APPLICABILITY OF OTHER REQUIREMENTS.—Nothing in this resolution supersedes any requirement of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1541 et seq.). (c) LIMITATIONS.— The authority granted in subsection (a) does not authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces in enduring offensive ground combat operations. SEC. 3. DURATION OF THIS AUTHORIZATION. This authorization for the use of military force shall terminate three years aftter the date of the enactment of this joint resolution, unless reauthorized. SEC. 4. REPORTS.

The President shall report to Congress at least once every six months on specific actions takenpursuant to this authorization.SEC. 5. ASSOCIATED PERSONS OR FORCES DEFINED.In this joint resolution, the term ‘‘associated persons or forces’’ means individuals andorganizations fighting for, on behalf of, or alongside ISIL or any closely-related successor entityin hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners.SEC. 6. REPEAL OF AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF MILITARY FORCE AGAINSTIRAQ.The Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 (Public Law 107–243; 116 Stat. 1498; 50 U.S.C. 1541 note) is hereby repealed. "

Lets Get Real:

This draft has already come under attack from liberal Democrats as to broad and from the Republicans as to limiting.   The Democrats fear that this will lead to another Iraq War, while the Republicans think that the Obama Oval does not have a winning strategy when it comes to IS.   The debate in Congress is expected to take a month, lets see how the draft changes from now, the Oval might find it has a tougher resolution and more broad authority, the Democrats will not be happy but the Oval might have no choice, it can hardly veto a resolution that gives it more opitions on the battlefield.   The Debate on the Hill will be hot and all about politics. 

Minsk Peace Deal Again! - The Ukraine Crisis

BBC News: Reports " An agreement aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine has been reached, following marathon talks in Belarus.  The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France announced that a ceasefire would begin on 15 February. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog gives the agreement a 50/50 chance of lasting, depends on the ground action, if the Russian rebels and military think they can gain more land the fighting will go on, and the Kiev Government in many respects wants the Russians to break the agreement, as this would force President Obama to give arms to the military of the Ukraine, there is a lot of pressure fro the Hill for the US to take tougher action.    On the other and the deal could stick, the Ukraine is not split, good for the Ukraine people, the local Eastern rebels get self rule if not home rule,  the Russians have a finger in the politics of the Ukraine.  The hours and days will tell if the plan will work. 

The Obama WAY to Appease - The New Cold War 2

Telegraph - Live Blog: Reports the following comments by President Obama on the crisis in East Ukraine, this is from its 5.20pm post, " Mr Obama says: "My hope is that through these diplomatic efforts, these costs will become high enough that Mr Putin seeks a diplomatic resolution."  He says he has asked his team to looks at "all options" if diplomacy fails, and the use of defensive weapons is one of the options being considered.  "I want to emphasise that a decision has not been made," he says. "

Lets Get Real:

This will look like a green light from Oval to the Kremlin to take more of East Ukraine, thank the goodness President Obama was not in power during the Cold War, he would have turned a victory in to a loss.   The Oval Office for all its restarts with Russia has gotten sand thrown back in his face by Putin and the Kremlin, and now the Germans and the French are leading Europe, give me a break, these two Countries when it comes to foreign policy have no backbone, typical of the old world of Europe and the liberal thinking of the Oval. 

Chancellor Merkel on the World Stage - East Ukraine

CNN - Politics: Reports " Angela Merkel, the German chancellor desperately working to reach a diplomatic accord ending unrest in eastern Ukraine, continued her efforts at the White House Monday, urging President Obama to forestall sending lethal aid to Kiev. "

Lets Get Real:

This is the kind of words that the Obama Oval Office will want to hear, then it can argue that its following Germany and France, and leading from behind, the Obama Oval has refused to arm the Kiev Government as it would from their view cause more problems than it solves.  In other words the US and Germany will want to appease Putin and hope he will take his gains and go home, the problem is that Putins sees Kiev as home, as part of Russia, this problem will not go away, it can only end one way, Ukraine free or under Russia. 

How far does Germany want to Appease Russia - New Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports on US view of the German peace plan, " According to Bild newspaper, US delegates to the weekend Munich security conference accused her of appeasement and described the peace talks as “Moscow bullshit”. "

Lets Get Real:

The Germans really should learn from their own history, never allow tyrant like Putin to get away with the small stuff first then they try to take over Countries.   If the German and French plan for East Ukraine works they will give the green light for Putin to try to take over the entire Ukraine later down the line.   The Republicans in the US Congress should pressure the Oval Office to increase arms for the Kiev Government.  Its better to take on the tyrant on his own soil that deal with an attack on NATO. 

A Greek Exit - The Euro Crisis

BBC News: Reports " The prime minister this morning chaired a meeting of senior officials to discuss the impact on the UK of possible Greek exit from the eurozone - and to take steps to ensure British banks and companies would not be excessively damaged. "

Lets Get Real:

The Greeks face a choice, be very humble in the face of Germany or get thrown out of the Euro.  The new Greek PM bought up the historical record of Germany in Greece during World War 2, so one can project that Greece will make the choice not to blink when it comes to the EU, thus they will be out, of course Greece could get help from Russia, the Russians could help Greece with some of their problems, in return the Greeks could be the Russian Trojan horse in the EU and NATO.   Beware of Greeks bearing gifts folks, as the Romans said, the Greeks would not have that about themselves. 

The US and Iran - Will there be a DEAL ? - Iran Crisis

Washington Post: Reports " Secretary of State John F. Kerry said in an interview broadcast Sunday that it would be “impossible” to extend nuclear negotiations with Iran if an agreement on fundamental principles is not reached within upcoming weeks. "

Lets Get Real:

This is the deal that the Oval Office wants, it will take even a BAD deal over not deal.    The problem is that the Israel is opposed to the deal and US allies in the region think the Oval Office will sell them out for a deal.   If the impression is left that Iran can go nuclear, you can expect a arms race to develop, lets recall they have the money to buy a nuclear missile on the black market.   Another major factor that concerns the Oval Office is the fact that Iran is helping the US fight IS, if there is no deal with Tehran limited its effort to defeat IS, or ask for more in return for helping the US.   As Munich 1938 is being used as an example for the latest peace deal pushed by France and Germany when it comes to Ukraine, the Oval Office does not want ANY deal that gives that impression, as it would not get through the Congress, and it can be stated that the Republican Congress would increase sanctions on Iran with the help of Democrats.   Its a wild world at the moment when it comes to foreign policy. 

Ukraine Lates Part 2 - The New Cold War 2

Telegraph: Reports " US officials compare peace efforts to appeasing Hitler..“History shows us that dictators will always take more if you let them,” says John McCain, comparing Angela Merkel and François Hollande's talks with Vladimir Putin to Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler "

Lets Get Real:

The European family never learns, does France and Germany really believe that Putin will give up on not getting the rest of the Ukraine, he has most of the East of Ukraine, he wants a land route to the Crimea.    The EU does not have the backbone to deal with Putin, it does not want to fight anything, it would rather sell Ukraine out than defend it, the peace plan by France and Germany only come because there was noise that the US would arm the Kiev Government.   One can expect a phony ceasefire, then after the Ukraine has gone off the news the Russians will start to increase their presence in the East Ukraine, then we can expect the West of Ukraine to come under threat, the Germans and the French should know better, do their leaders not recall history and the shame that was Munich 1938, when the powers gave the Sudetenland to Germany and how the Germans marched from there to Poland and World War 2. 

Labour LEAD in new Poll - 2015 General Election

Guardian: Reports on its new poll, " Labour stands on 34%, up 1 point on a fortnight ago, while the Tories are unchanged on 32%. Ukip, which is edging downwards, has dropped 3 points to 15%, while the Greens are up 2 points on 8%, ahead of the Lib Dems, who are also up 2 points, on 7%. "

Lets Get Real:

As noted by this blog and others, it only needs Labour to get to around 34%-36% to have the ability to form a majority Government by a narrow margin.   Due to the election maths it takes more Conservative voters to vote Conservative to allow the Party to rule by itself.   Thus this blog is keeping to its prediction that Labour will win the election with a narrow majority or come out the biggest Party.   If it needs a coalition partner it can get that from the Lib Dems or the SNP.   The Conservative Party faces 5 years in opposition.   It should be noted that if the Conservative Party losses it can be expected that David Cameron will resign as PM and Conservative Leader.   A new Labour Government can be expected to balls it up on the economy and cause it to lose the next election in 2020. 

Ukraine Latest - New Cold War 2

BBC News: Reports " The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France aim to meet in Belarus's capital Minsk on Wednesday to discuss a peace plan for eastern Ukraine. "

Lets Get Real: 

It can be argued that France and Germany ACTED because they are afraid that Obama Administration will arm the Kiev Government, one does not have to be a brain surgeon to connect the dots, what if US arms or bullets start to kill Russian soldiers, the Kremlin would increase its force presence in East Ukraine, this could lead to ALL OUT WAR.   The Germans and French are worried that a wrong missile or bullets could start to hit NATO countries, then ALL hell would break lose, the early targets would be Poland or the Baltic States.    Lets see how far Paris and Berlin push the Ukraine, Kiev should not allow another Munich 1938, that could very well lead to War.