State of Denial

A state of Denial is an interesting concept as to look at American Politics at the moment; on the one hand we have two articles, as published by the New York Times (Registration Required, Free) and Time, they both underline that what looks like a large Democratic win in November has to face political reality. As the NYT points out, the Republican base is returning to the President, recent climb in his Job Approval ratings means that his base is returning. The base might have problems with George W. Bush but they would have more problems with a Liberal Democrat from San Francisco as Speaker of he House of Representatives. The Time article looks at how Karl Rove the Master Mind of how George W. Bush has won both Presidential elections has been planning for this fight since 2004. It should be noted that the old idea that turnout out helped the Democrats was blown away by Rove who increased Republican turnout in the right areas to win the Presidency for Bush in 2004.

As noted a week is a long time in Politics, over the past few days we have had the release of the National Intelligence Estimate for April 2004, see previous Blog entry. On the heels of the NIE we have had the release of the new book by Bob Woodward, extracts can be found on the Washington Post Web Page, also Congressional Scandals that has made a Republican Congressman Resign and placed his seat with the reach of the Democrats. Views predicted that the Republicans would keep control of the House and Senate, as of today that is a lot harder to justify even with the articles in the NYT and Time. The election is a few weeks away, and it has to be recognised that if the luck follows the Democrats they should take the House and give the Republicans a run for their money in the Senate.