2008 Elections

Elections seasons in the United States seem to start early and earlier, the matter of governing seems to have gone out of the window. The Vote in the United States to withdraw troops was a matter of show, the Kerry amendment to withdraw troops by the end of the year was not going to pass and a less direct amendment also failed as the Republicans held together. Thus on the Democratic side we have Hillary Clinton the Junior Senator from New York State as the Front Runner for the Democratic Nomination in 2008. Hillary Clinton based on observations from over the Water has a problem, she voted for the Iraq War but unlike Senator Kerry, the Democratic Nominee in 2004 and ex Senator Edwards, the Vice – Presidential Nominee in 2004 she has not stated it was a wrong decision, she has argued that the management of the war by the Bush administration is wrong. This has put Senator Clinton on the spot, the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, e.g. LIBERALS want out of Iraq and they wanted the Party Nominee to lead that cause. As has been analysed this puts the Senator in a bind, she can move to the left and became a the Nominee in 2008 and go down to a major defeat, the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party is not the American Voting public. The Senator needs to appear almost like Lady Thatcher when it comes to Foreign Policy, Liberal on Domestic issues such as abortion and green issues but tough as steel on Foreign Policy.

Thus we come to the election Process, in 2008, it all starts in Iowa and in a recent Poll, Senator Edwards headed the pack, Hillary was second, it should be noted that Bill Clinton came out of nowhere to win in 1992 he was not the front runner, so what are we looking at for 2008. The question comes down to Iraq by September 2006 the un – official plan according to the leaks to the Press is to withdraw some of the troops from Iraq, thus secure the Republican Majority in Congress. Lets jump through a wormhole and see what might happen, Iraq will go quiet, the internal security will stand up while Americans go to their usual parades, and thus Congress remains Republican. Early 2008, the vote by Hillary Clinton now looks like the act of a stateswoman and Kerry and Edwards look like that they don’t have the back bone to fight a war never mind Hillary.

Thus Hillary Clinton wins the Nomination and she faces lets argue for arguments sake John McCain, this a prediction, she would lose, by the time the Republicans where finished with her and Bill Clinton, she would look a weak Liberal and would you like to see Bill Clinton back in White House if you are living in Middle America. Its not fair judge Hillary by the actions of Bill, but Politics is not fair it is ruthless and direct, more Americans and even a healthy lot in the Democratic Party worry about a bored Bill Clinton in the White House. He could be sent to the UN as General Secretary but would you feel if you are a third world country; could trust Bill Clinton to look after your interests if they happened not to be the interest of Hillary.

We have looked at the positive, know lets look at the negative, Iraq goes to hell in a hand basket, no troop reduction, even more troops, the country faces civil war. Thus the Kerry and Edwards who have repented their votes. We have Kerry and Edwards fighting it out, Clinton, wont run if she looks like getting beaten by either man. Kerry verses Edwards another interesting fight, Kerry won the last time and lost the election to George Bush, would the Democratic Party nominate him to fight John McCain, another War Hero and a man who had been Prisoner of War in Vietnam when John Kerry was demonstrating again the War, one can see the cruel but effective adds already and the jokes would be worse for Kerry, the Senator does not come across as a man who laughs at himself, McCain gives the appearance of enjoying laughter.

Of course should the Republicans not Nominate Senator John McCain they still have a good list of candidates that could take the fight to Hillary Clinton, there is Rudy Giuliani the ex Mayor of New York at the time of 9/11. This could even bring New York State in to play during the election, on the one hand, Giuliani in social liberal and this could have an effect on the conservative base but the man who cleaned up New York and lead New York at the time of 9/11 would be covered in some respects on the issues as he would be seen as tough on National Security and Law and Order. Hillary Clinton while a good Senator and conservative on National Security Issues would not stand a chance in an election, Giuliani is from New York, and Hillary Clinton did a Robert Kennedy and found a safe seat.

As often noted a aged British Prime Minister was asked by Junior Minister what could go wrong, the PM noted Events, Events. By January 20th 2009, we might find that we do not recognise the man or woman been sworn in as 44th President of the United States.