Obama vs. Putin - Ukraine Crisis Latest

The White House: Readout of Telephone call between President Obama and Putin on the Crisis in the Ukraine, " President Putin called President Obama today to discuss the U.S. proposal for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis in Ukraine, which Secretary Kerry had again presented to Foreign Minister Lavrov at the meeting at the Hague earlier this week, and which we developed following U.S. consultations with our Ukrainian and European partners.  President Obama suggested that Russia put a concrete response in writing and the presidents agreed that Kerry and Lavrov would meet to discuss next steps.

President Obama noted that the Ukrainian government continues to take a restrained and de-escalatory approach to the crisis and is moving ahead with constitutional reform and democratic elections, and urged Russia to support this process and avoid further provocations, including the buildup of forces on its border with Ukraine.

President Obama underscored to President Putin that the United States continues to support a diplomatic  path in close consultation with the Government of Ukraine and in support of the Ukrainian people with the aim of de-escalation of the crisis.  President Obama made clear that this remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take any steps to further violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.  President Obama reiterated that the United States has strongly opposed the actions that Russia has already taken to violate Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. ".

Lets Get Real:

Interesting, it was  Putin who called the Oval Office, has the economic sanctions started to work, is he worried that there might be harder sanctions, or is this just a bluff while his Army gets read to invade the East of Ukraine.   Is the Russian Army not quite ready fight a War in the Ukraine, are there internal pressures from Putin's rich friends for him to back off, God its like the Cold War, reading the smoke signals from the Kremlin.   This weekend could be interesting, either WAR on talk talk, this move by Putin might mean that he has flinched at the final move of an invasion, so many questions, not to many answers. 

Is there a planned Russian Invasion of the Ukraine ?- Ukraine Crisis Latest

Telegraph: Reports on the speculated Russian Invasion of the Ukraine, the article notes from a reporter on the ground, " As President Obama warns that Russian troops are 'massing along border', the Telegraph goes in search of Putin's invisible army ".

Lets Get Real:

The article is almost light hearted, from the correspondent on the ground, there is NO invasion force, the article notes the following, " It is almost perfect tank country, as local history testifies. But the rich earth may still be too boggy - and the rivers too high - to provide a decent surface for Russia’s heavy T-90 tanks. ".  One has to ask is Putin just driving the West crazy with worry for something he has no plans to do, even the Kremlin must know it would not be a walk over in the East of the Ukraine, the Russian natives of East are not a majority, one can expect resistance from the Army of the Ukraine, the US could supply military arms, Obama does not want Putin on the Polish border or close to the Baltic States.   The reporter has either found the TRUTH, e.g no invasion or he will look like a fool, time will tell when it comes to the Ukraine.   Sky News just reported that President Obama has talked to President Putin and asked him to remove his troops from the border and start talks with the new Kiev Government, the CIA and NSA must smell that the Russian Bear is up to no good, who is right, the Telegraph or US Intelligence. 

Remove Russian troops from border of Ukraine - Obama - Ukraine Latest

BBC News: Reports that President Obama has called for Russia " to "move back its troops" on Ukraine's border and lower tensions. ".

Lets Get Real:

The White House must be worried that while POTUS is travelling the Russians will make a move on the Ukraine, there has been a drum beat of reports that Russia has thousands of troops on the Russian/Ukraine border, last night Fox News had footage that seemed to show Russians tanks on the move, the location of and time of the footage could not be confirmed by Fox.    One can postulate that the Kremlin  is waiting for the weekend,  hoping to catch the West out, also weekends are break periods, while Western population enjoy the weekend break and their leaders take the rest the Kremlin could move, but that is only a guess, something is up, the question is what is the Kremlin's game. 

POTUS on Ukraine - Ukraine Crisis Latest

The White House: Reports the following remarks by President Obama on the Ukraine at a press conference with the Prime Minister of Italy, " I think that I’ve been very clear in saying that we are going to do everything we can to support Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.  But I think that it’s also important for us not to promise and then not be able to deliver.  There are ways for us to hopefully influence Russian decision-making, and one of the most important things that we can do on that front is ensure that the Ukrainian government is stable, that its finances are stable, and that elections go forward as currently scheduled so that we have a legitimate, strong, representative, inclusive government with an economic program that it is implementing and carrying out.

 

And all those things are in place, but we’re going to have to put a lot of resources and a lot of effort -- not just the United States, but Europe as well.

And I’ve been very impressed with Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and his current efforts.  The decision to go forward with an IMF program with a lot of resources is going to require a lot of courage.  But keep in mind that part of what prompted the original protests that led to the previous President leaving was an objection about the same corrupt practices, an economy that was completely inefficient that had led to a situation in which Poland’s GDP had skyrocketed and the Ukraine’s had plummeted when they started off at the same place just several years ago. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is an open invite for Russia to take the East and South of Ukraine, the new Kiev Government needs military support, no one is talking about boots on the ground, what the West could do is send in arms and the latest technology to allow the Kiev Government to fight back should Russia take action, if the Russians have a walk over they might get the wrong idea and try for the Baltic States, the Baltic States are members of NATO, the US would have to come to their help, its a Treaty obligation that Obama could not get out off, better not to have that problem, build the Kiev Government up with money and weapons, if US intelligence is right, and that is a open question the Russians could invade the Ukraine in days, then what for the Oval, they could be on the door step of Poland.   That should be a nightmare for any US President. 

Russian THREAT to Ukraine - US Intelligence - Ukraine Crisis Latest

CNN - Politics: Reports the following, " A new classified intelligence assessment concludes it is more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine, CNN has learned. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus as asked in my previous post WHAT is Putin waiting for, could there be covert and overt plans in the mix, as stated previously is there a Covert False Flag operation, or is Russian intelligence pushing for Russian radicals in the East to cause more problems, riots etc, this would be seen as a reason by Moscow to send in the troops.   This blogger has been thinking for days, WHY the delay, it could be that Putin has not made his mind up or he is getting pressure from his rich friends not to push the West to far or they will get their assets frozen.   If Putin is living on another Planet it could be that he is waiting for his lucky day or hour who knows, what can not be argued is that you can not keep troops on constant alert, you lose them after a while, they get bored and restless and can cause you problems if you wait to long.   Lets hope as stated that CIA, NSA and MI6 have their eyes and ears open. 

US AID for the Ukraine - Ukraine Crisis Latest

Guardian: Reports the following from Capital Hill, " Congress approves major Ukraine aid package..Partisan bickering had held up $1bn in loan guarantees, but Senate and House pass bills to help shore up Ukraine economy ".

Lets Get Real:

This should help the new Kiev Government in the Ukraine, also as the article notes the IMF over all with give Kiev 27 billion dollars over the next two years, this will help the rocky Ukraine finances, there will be problems but at least the West is supporting a Government that wants to be part of the West, the previous President looted the Ukraine of its treasure and did a runner to Russia.   The BIG question is WHY Russia has still not acted, as noted in previous post the US Intelligence Community thought that Putin would invade the East Ukraine, with his thousands of troops on the borders.   It has been reported that 30 thousand troops are ready while others are on alert, you can not keep troops battle ready for days on end and have others on alert, either Putin is going for gold, that means the whole of the Ukraine or he will take his victory in the Crimea and wait his time, this blog is not sure what Putin is waiting for, is there a covert action that is planned that will give Putin the PR cover for invasion as with with Hitler with Poland in 1939, Hitler had German troops dressed up as Polish troops and then had them attack fellow Germans in Germany, is Putin waiting for that or more violence in the East Ukraine mounted by Russian intelligence.  The wait is interesting, WHY!. 

G7 vs. Russia - Ukraine Crisis Latest

The White House: Has released the following statement by the G7, " The Hague Declaration

1. We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission met in The Hague to reaffirm our support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.

2. International law prohibits the acquisition of part or all of another state’s territory through coercion or force.  To do so violates the principles upon which the international system is built.  We condemn the illegal referendum held in Crimea in violation of Ukraine’s constitution.  We also strongly condemn Russia’s illegal attempt to annex Crimea in contravention of international law and specific international obligations.  We do not recognize either. 

3. Today, we reaffirm that Russia’s actions will have significant consequences.  This clear violation of international law is a serious challenge to the rule of law around the world and should be a concern for all nations.  In response to Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to demonstrate our determination to respond to these illegal actions, individually and collectively we have imposed a variety of sanctions against Russia and those individuals and entities responsible.  We remain ready to intensify actions including coordinated sectoral sanctions that will have an increasingly significant impact on the Russian economy, if Russia continues to escalate this situation. 

4. We remind Russia of its international obligations, and its responsibilities including those for the world economy.  Russia has a clear choice to make.  Diplomatic avenues to de-escalate the situation remain open, and we encourage the Russian Government to take them.  Russia must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, begin discussions with the Government of Ukraine, and avail itself of offers of international mediation and monitoring to address any legitimate concerns.

5.  The Russian Federation’s support for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine is a step in the right direction.  We look forward to the mission’s early deployment, in order to facilitate the dialogue on the ground, reduce tensions and promote normalization of the situation, and we call on all parties to ensure that Special Monitoring Mission members have safe and secure access throughout Ukraine to fulfill their mandate.

6.  This Group came together because of shared beliefs and shared responsibilities.  Russia’s actions in recent weeks are not consistent with them.  Under these circumstances, we will not participate in the planned Sochi Summit.  We will suspend our participation in the G-8 until Russia changes course and the environment comes back to where the G-8 is able to have a meaningful discussion and will meet again in G-7 format at the same time as planned, in June 2014, in Brussels, to discuss the broad agenda we have together.  We have also advised our Foreign Ministers not to attend the April meeting in Moscow.  In addition, we have decided that G-7 Energy Ministers will meet to discuss ways to strengthen our collective energy security.

7.  At the same time, we stand firm in our support for the people of Ukraine who seek to restore unity, democracy, political stability, and economic prosperity to their country.   We commend the Ukrainian government’s ambitious reform agenda and will support its implementation as Ukraine seeks to start a new chapter in its history, grounded on a broad-based constitutional reform, free and fair presidential elections in May, promotion of human rights and respect of national minorities.

8. The International Monetary Fund has a central role leading the international effort to support Ukrainian reform, lessening Ukraine's economic vulnerabilities, and better integrating the country as a market economy in the multilateral system.  We strongly support the IMF's work with the Ukrainian authorities and urge them to reach a rapid conclusion.  IMF support will be critical in unlocking additional assistance from the World Bank, other international financial institutions, the EU, and bilateral sources.  We remain united in our commitment to provide strong financial backing to Ukraine, to co-ordinate our technical assistance, and to provide assistance in other areas, including measures to enhance trade and strengthen energy security. "

Lets Get Real:

This will not worry President Putin of Russia, he is restoring Imperial Russia, and in some respects the old USSR, the Kremlin 1 - The West 0.   There will be more trouble form Moscow, weakness makes the bear take more risks, this is 1938 all over again.