Ohio is the last firewall for Clinton, if she can make Obama have a narrow victory in Texas, single digits victory then it comes down Ohio. Ohio as stated is a state made for Clinton, women over 50, working class Democrats. The problem is the trade deals made by Bill Clinton in the early 90s is coming back to bite her on the backside. The RCP average of Polls has Clinton ahead by 5%, but some individual polls show a very narrow lead. Lets again look at Zogby, Clinton is leading by two points, Clinton 44%, Obama 42%. Obama is cutting in to the female vote, the bedrock for the Clinton Campaign. The election is a few days away; any more slippage and it could all be over for Clinton. Lets looks at Rasmussen, Clinton leads by five points, Clinton 48%, Obama 43%. Clinton has to keep Ohio or its all over, narrow win yes a narrow loss and what started in 1992 comes to end in Ohio 2008.
Friday, February 29, 2008
RCP - Texas Polls
As noted in previous Blog, I have called Texas for Obama; here is the base line for this call. RCP collects the polls and does an average of the Polls. The RCP Average of Polls has Obama ahead of Clinton by 2.4%. Thus here is a look at individual polls and what we can read in to them for next Tuesday, lets start with Zogby, in this Poll Obama is ahead by six points, Obama 48%, Clinton 42%. If this was the actual result or Obama was even further ahead it would be over for Hillary Clinton, the Super Delegates would jump on mass for Obama. The question would be asked, who would tell her its over, Bill Clinton? My favourite Pollster now, Rasmussen, here the lead held by Obama is more narrow, 4 points, Obama 48%, Clinton 44%. If it’s a very narrow Primary and Caucus win for Obama the race wont be over, this could go all the way to the Convention, blood on the carpets, secret deals, like the season six of the West Wing.
Prince Harry of Afghanistan
BBC News: Reports that Prince Harry is to return from Afghanistan after it was leaked that he had been there for two months. The Prince has shown great courage wanting to get to the front line, a tough war in a tough place. HRH has shown by example to his generation that if a Prince of the Blood Royal can fight for his country then more of his generation should consider service in the Armed Forces. I hope the Prince is now allowed some rest and that the press give him a break if he has some fun before return to the army. Again Congrats to Prince Harry, does honour to his family and the country.
Away from the Fury
Its interesting that sometimes you need to take a time out from the fun that is politics, if you follow every detail you can lose the big picture, the end result. The Democratic Debate of this week is an example. As over the Water did not see the full debate and thus had to wait for comment from the other Networks. In this turned to Fox News, they had undecided votes to measure the debate. After I listened to them one would get the impression that it was Clinton victory on substance, as in policy. But it shows you have to wait to see what the general view, on the whole from the reviews it was seen that Clinton did not win, and also she came under critical review for her complaint the she got the first question all the time. As was pointed out on the News Channels, if you going to President of the United States, you always get the first question, does she expect Bill Clinton to take questions.
On the other hand, one gets the theme that the Elite Media and Bloggers want to finish the Clintons off once and for all; they are in love with Obama to a point. Lets see the Clinton Machine has reported that they have raised over thirty million dollars to fund their campaign. It’s reported that Obama has raised over fifty million. So lets look at Texas and Ohio, as noted in early post have called Texas for Obama, still stand by that opinion. Obama is leading in the Polls by a few points, he was leading by a few points in Wisconsin, and that was a landslide victory. Thus we have the Texas two step, a primary and a caucus, thus the good folks of Texas can vote twice, Obama is good at getting his voters to a caucus, in Ohio Clinton is still ahead, but the point margin does vary. Thus On March 4th Obama should win Texas and a close race in Ohio, the voters of Ohio fit the Clinton Model to gain victory, older women, working class Democrats. Thus the race will go unless Obama can win both Texas and Ohio.
On the other hand, one gets the theme that the Elite Media and Bloggers want to finish the Clintons off once and for all; they are in love with Obama to a point. Lets see the Clinton Machine has reported that they have raised over thirty million dollars to fund their campaign. It’s reported that Obama has raised over fifty million. So lets look at Texas and Ohio, as noted in early post have called Texas for Obama, still stand by that opinion. Obama is leading in the Polls by a few points, he was leading by a few points in Wisconsin, and that was a landslide victory. Thus we have the Texas two step, a primary and a caucus, thus the good folks of Texas can vote twice, Obama is good at getting his voters to a caucus, in Ohio Clinton is still ahead, but the point margin does vary. Thus On March 4th Obama should win Texas and a close race in Ohio, the voters of Ohio fit the Clinton Model to gain victory, older women, working class Democrats. Thus the race will go unless Obama can win both Texas and Ohio.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
President Ronald Reagan and Senator Obama
Richard Reeves: An excellent article by the recent biographer of Ronald Reagan, how both Reagan and Obama get the point of an Election and how Hillary Clinton does not cut the mustard. In essence Reagan could make a speech that would make you follow him to hell and back, because it was the right thing to do, he made you believe in our better angels not our darker souls. When tragedy with the loss of the Shuttle, he allowed the nation to mourn but also understand that the future of man was out in the stars. He called a spade a spade, the Soviet Union was an Evil Empire, and he was a light of freedom for Eastern Europe. Reagan’s “ Tear down this wall, Mr Gorbachev ” spoke to the freedom in the hearts of all. When he made mistakes he did not hide and try to devise a new English Language, he took the helm and took responsibility, as was the case in Iran – Contra. Reagan was a the last great President of the 20th Century, he was not some micro manager like Jimmy Carter who ran the White House Tennis Court, he wanted to free Eastern Europe, end Soviet Power and make the USA great again. That is a great Presidency.
Senator Obama allows you to feel hope, its up to the American People to decide if he can be a great President.
Senator Obama allows you to feel hope, its up to the American People to decide if he can be a great President.
New Texas Poll - Obama Ahead
The second poll to show Senator Obama ahead in Texas, this and the CNN poll, confirms a trend for the Senator. Recall the words of Bill Clinton, if Senator Hillary Clinton was to lose Texas then its all over, is the road set can there be a return from a failed Presidential run.
Survey USA:
Obama 49 %
Clinton 45 %
I am going to take a risk and call Texas for Obama, not because I am under Obama mania but I think the trend has a pattern, Obama just might win Texas BIG. It could all be over by March 4th.
New Ohio Poll – Trouble for Clinton
Drudge Report: A new poll by the respect pollster Rasmussen shows that Clinton attacks on Obama have failed so far:
Clinton 48 %
Obama 43 %
Clinton has a five percentage lead, if she was to lose Texas and Ohio it would be all over, no come back. The Republicans need Hillary Clinton in the race, she has so much baggage with herself and with Bill, Republicans should vote for her in Texas and Ohio, Obama hard to beat and would bring over a lot of Conservatives over to vote for him. This might sound like going beyond the pale, but we need Hillary Clinton in the race, then Senator McCain can have a landslide.
Clinton 48 %
Obama 43 %
Clinton has a five percentage lead, if she was to lose Texas and Ohio it would be all over, no come back. The Republicans need Hillary Clinton in the race, she has so much baggage with herself and with Bill, Republicans should vote for her in Texas and Ohio, Obama hard to beat and would bring over a lot of Conservatives over to vote for him. This might sound like going beyond the pale, but we need Hillary Clinton in the race, then Senator McCain can have a landslide.
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