Post Debate Polls

Lets have some fun folks, we need it after the last couple of days, lets see how the candidates are after the debate and the Wall Street Mess.

Gallup: Reports a six point margin between Obama and McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 43%. On one level if in the Obama Campaign would be selecting the drapes for my West Wing Office, on the other hand these polls would trouble me in some respect, its just after an economic 9/11 you would think Obama would be in double digits not single digits. Also do you recall New Hampshire and Indiana, in NH Obama had a double digit lead and lost to Hillary Clinton, also in Indiana Obama had a two point lead over Clinton but lost by two. Thus if you postulate that the polls are four percent off, Obama and McCain are tied, and in a tied race Obama will lose, harsh but simple folks. Obama needs to get a double digit lead well before November.

Rasmussen: Also reports that Obama has a six point lead, in this poll Obama has managed to get over the 50%. The Poll finds the following, Obama 51% - 45%. Obama needs the next four Weeks to be about the economy and he should cross his fingers that Israel does not attack Iran on the presumption that an Obama Administration would veto any plan. Israel might not attack before the Presidential Election but after is another matter, even Bush might green light that attack, Obama could not attack Israel and Israel would to use a snooker term, snookered the President Elect.

My two penny on the state of this race is different, not based on calling voters, not even at looking at the polls in detail. I think the race is about Obama 47% - McCain 45%. Thus Obama has four weeks to win this race and get a double digit lead before November.