AMERICAN POLITICS

The latest news from American political Front, interesting article on the Senate Race of Joe Lieberman, Click here . On the Presidential Race for 2008 an Article from Time, Click here

The White House Race and the Mid Term Elections

Two new polls have Joe Lieberman ahead in the Senate race; this casts an interesting question for the Junior Senator from New York, Hillary Clinton. If she wants an easy victory in the Primaries for President in 2008 she has to move to the left, otherwise this gives Senator John F. Kerry, the 2004 Nominee a chance, also added to this list should be ex – Senator John Edwards the Vice President Nominee in 2004. The Big Political Polar Bear in the question is Al Gore, the 2000 Presidential Election Nominee; he did win more votes that President George W. Bush and he has been anti Iraq war from the start. Lets look at why Al Gore would want to put himself through another Presidential Race again and against Hillary of all people, the wife of his old boss.

When looking at the future it is sometimes fun to look at the past, how and why people run for the President a second time after being defeated. One of the best known is of course Richard M. Nixon, the President of the United States between 1969-1974. In 1960, Nixon was up against John F. Kennedy, at the start of the power of Television to define political characters, it could be argued than Kennedy should have had an easy ride in the election. It can be argued in even on black and white film, Kennedy had magic, intelligence, urbane, witty and did not take himself to seriously and of course he had the move star looks. Nixon on the other hand and lets be honest here, Intelligence of course, the rest not, he had climbed the greasy political pole, Congressman, Senator and Vice President of the United States of America under President Eisenhower. But in 1960 he had his chance to be President, Eisenhower’s help could be described at best as a minus, not even lifting a finger to help really, by comparison Ronald Reagan was George H. W. Bush’s best supporter, here is an example of a minus and positive help, when asked by the Press what his Vice President had done to help the President and the Administration, Eisenhower replied it would take him a week to come up with an answer. On the other hand Ronald Reagan when asked by the Press if he thought Bush’s opponent should release his medical records, the President responded he would not make an opponent disability an issue. This of course raised the question in VIEWS mind what had the President read for him to make such a very blunt statement for Ronald Reagan. In the end George H.W. Bush won and Reagan could transfer the helm to his Deputy, thus a successful Presidency.

It should also be noted that Ronald Reagan had two previous attempts to run for President before 1980. In 1966 he was elected Governor of California, in 1962 his fellow Republican Richard M. Nixon had been defeated, in 1968, with only a few years in politics he was considered a dark horse candidate for the 1968 Republican Nomination, in the end this was won by Nixon. After Vietnam War and Watergate, Gerald Ford was President, he won the nomination in the end but only after Ronald Reagan had fought him in every state and taken the fight all the way to the Convention Hall. In the end Jimmy Carter won the election and Reagan’s time would come again in 1980, the rest is history.


In 2000 Presidential Election, Al Gore had the following great problems to deal with, a great economy and the United States at Peace, irony abounds, so what real problems did Al Gore have heading in to the Election, one answer Bill Clinton, it should be recalled that the fictional West Wing President was not Bill Clinton, he was the clean one without the messy personal problems and had not been impeached and tried by the Senate, the first elected President to suffer this fate, President Johnson after the civil war had succeeded after thee assassination of his President. Thus Al Gore faced the a double problem, getting out of Bill Clinton’s shadow and Monica Mess created by Bill Clinton. If Monica had not happened and Bill Clinton could have been used in the campaign the result might have been different, but although people on the whole supported the policies of Bill Clinton they did not agree with his character and the impression this had created in the country. Thus George W. Bush could go around the country and say he would bring honour back to the White House, he did not have to mention Bill Clinton the statement itself was implicit.

Thus in the end Al Gore won the popular vote by over a half a million votes but lost the Electoral College Vote. It was hard to feel sorry for him when he lost his own state, if his own state would not vote for him; it was hard to feel he had been cheated. It is reported that Bill Clinton told Al Gore to take care of his home state over the years; it looked like Gore had not listened. In the end it was a 5-4 ruling by the Supreme Court that finished Al Gore hopes for the Presidency. Although Al Gore had reason to be upset with Supreme Court it was Bill Clinton in some respects that got most of Al Gore anger, it has been reported that after the campaign was finished Al Gore told President Clinton that in many respects the result was due to his failure to control himself. Al Gore had a problem during the campaign on the one hand he had been Vice President during a time of great economic development in the United States but also there was always the character issue with Bill Clinton which turned off voters, Bill Clinton was good for himself but it has to bee asked what did he give the Democratic Party in the long term, they lost Congress, a majority of the Governors in the States where from the Republican Party, and economic development also had a effect on the voters, it has been noted by analysts that Bill Clinton had in the eyes of the voters fixed the economy, more people had jobs and thus where wealthy. In many respects the Democratic Party is for those without, the underclass, pressure groups, green issues, etc. If the country feels things are getting better and the Stock Market is going through the roof, people tend to care about Social Issues, and they tend to be quite or very conservative, thus Al Gore was the victim of his own success and of Bill Clinton, he had to appeal to those that during the eight years of Bill Clinton had not achieved the American dream, so he had to distance himself form Bill Clinton and then he had to make sure Bill Clinton was not a negative on his campaign with conservative voters thus he was sent to safe states where he was still popular. So Ronald Reagan helped Bush 41 get elected while Bill Clinton was hid in the attic as best as Al Gore could do keep Bill Clinton out of the headlines.

In the end it was not Bill Clinton that lost the election but Al Gore, the turning point was the debates, it was argued that Al Gore would win these with not much trouble, the point was missed, a good debater does not mean a politician that connects with the voters, of the three debates, on debating points Gore won but on the personal level it was a disaster, in the first he was seen as patronising, which was spotted as the days went on, then he tried to be co – operative in the Second Debate, it has been argued the voters had two Al Gore’s to study and then in third debate he tried more balanced approach, so three Al Gore’s. George W. Bush just had to be him self. It shows that being Vice President or President can make one less at ease as a debater, in the 2004 election, Bush had a bad first debate like Ronald Reagan in 1984, he recovered in the other two and Kerry another good debater made the same mistake as Gore, good debaters try win the argument, Kerry bought up the personal life of the Vice President daughter also his aide, that was a major turn off for voters. So winning a debate is more than winning an argument on Technical points it is about connecting with the voters. Gore and Kerry failed in 2000 and 2004.

In this modern age, it is surprising that the main stream media, MSM, have not show their favourite Hillary Clinton more as in speeches. Views did catch a few minutes of one, lets be clear, now ever much you want transference, pop psychology, Senator Clinton is not Bill, she does not have the charm, the good old boy networking skills, she has a shrill at times speech, she is not Bill Clinton, her views might work with New York state and California and the other Blue States but America is more that just those states, thus the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton can win the nomination but she is in some respects the same position as Robert Kennedy was in, Vietnam had heated up under President Kennedy. In a speech Kennedy made an interesting point, that Vietnam was not the fault of Lyndon Johnson there was blame to go around. Hillary Clinton could easily go after George W. Bush more and be more critical of the war and say she was wrong and follow the Kerry line of getting out next year, but if she did that she might as well not spend a year and a half on the campaign trial as she would lose to either Senator John McCain or the ex Mayor Rudy Giuliani, she has to appeal to more that the Democratic base if she it to stand a chance in hell of winning a national election. Thus we come to Al Gore and why he might throw his hat in to the ring and why he could really beat Hillary in the Primaries.

The first reason, to lose the Presidency by one vote in the Supreme Court must be a constant pain and what has happened since and the What if’s he had been elected President. Since losing in 2000 Al Gore has moved to the left, always critical of the War in Iraq and Bush’s policies since coming in to office. This would be his chance to change America Foreign Policy to the better in his view, out of Iraq, removal of Bush’s tax cuts, more stress on green issues, the list goes on. Also it would be a rebuke to Bill Clinton, would place Bill Clinton in an odd position, his wife against his former Deputy. In political geek world a great campaign McCain versus Gore. It should be noted that with the defeat of Senator Joe Lieberman the left wing Bloggers if they wanted to could go after Hillary if she does not move to the left and denounce her vote to approve the War in Iraq. Thus the defeat of Joe Lieberman my not just be a turning point for him but for the Junior Senator from New York and the Democratic Party.

What a Week in News

Well we started last week with the Primary contest in which Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic Nomination but then decided to run as an Independent, in effect the Republican Candidate in the State, the actual Republican candidate is nowhere in the field. As this is about Iraq, the Republicans are supporting Joe Lieberman. Then we had Lebanon, would there be a ceasefire and would it hold, but after the arrests of what could have been Britain’s 9/11 or as some papers using an American expression, 8/10. Lebanon might as well have not as existed in the rolling news of that day, Israel missed a chance, with the world’s eyes on London it really could have smashed Hizbollah, but in the end agreed to a cease fire as demanded by most of the World. An interesting article in today’s London Times, reports on Germany’s decision to send troops as part of the peace keeping force, considering its past history this is a major move by the new German Government under the Christian Democrat Chancellor Angela Merkel. But it should be noted that the German Air Force played an active part in the NATO action in Bosnia. This action of placing German troops to protect Israel would also place the past in the past, not forgotten but also looking to the future. The writers of the article, Roger Boyes and Richard Beeston write the following, ‘German soldiers might give the Israelis the benefit of the doubt. ’ should the cease fire fail, in essence Germany would have no choice but to support Israel, the past would be a ‘ Foreign Country’ as today’s alliances would be based on, in some respects the past but also the present democratic nature of Israel and Germany compared to those on the opposite side.

It is interesting as we are discussing war, the news wires have reports that the government is about to present a bill to Parliament that would give a pardon to those shot at dawn by the army during the First World War. Although today we appreciate the suffering of those that got through War does that give us the right to change history. Let it be plain I support the move but can we change history, an example, do we pass a bill to say the Titanic did not sink, World War did not start in 1914, the Battle of the Somme did not happen, no Russian Revolution thus no Lenin or Stalin. History only happens once, we can empathise we can understand it but we are not Time Lords.

Independent Joe

On Tuesday, Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic Primary for the Nomination of his Party to serve another term as a Senator. The final result was 52% to 48% against Lieberman. The Democratic Nominee for the Democrats is Ned Lamont; Lieberman has decided to run as an Independent. It has to be admitted that the Liberal Bloggers have had their first victory. The question that has to be asked after that is it a shallow victory, is this another shift to the left by the Democratic Party and will it force Hillary R. Clinton, the Junior Senator to move to the left if she wants the Democratic Nomination for President in 2008. It has been argued that the Senator can win the Nomination but if she moves to the left she would be defeated in the general election as she would be seen as Liberal and weak on National Security.

As for Joe Lieberman he has announced he will run as an Independent, Dick Morris, President Clinton's old political strategist states the following, “ Lieberman has lost a battle, but he can still win the war running as an independent. “ Morris argues that that Lieberman can attract beyond the Democratic base in Connecticut and that he has a record he can run on. It should be remembered that a often bit of data used on the airwaves is the fact that Lieberman has voted with his fellow Democrats 90% of the time. Thus the blue state voters of Connecticut can vote for Lieberman and be sure he will still vote with the Democratic caucus on most issues just not Iraq.

No Guts No Glory!! ?

According to news reports, the agreement between the United States and France is falling apart over a cease-fire in the Middle East. It seems France does not want to lead the Multi National Force in to the South of Lebanon. The French are know saying if reports are true, that Israel should leave at once and that the army of Lebanon should move in to the South and thus they are not needed. President Bush has stated from his ranch that this is a line in the sand, there has to be a European Force in the South, as this will protect Israel but also allow Lebanon to have control in the South.

It has to be asked what are the French playing at if the above is true, does seem to raise the old question, no guts no glory, lets hope there is an agreement and the above story is false otherwise another self defeat for France.

Middle East and American Mid Term Elections

Middle East

On the news wires we have reports of a cease fire deal struck between the USA and France, it is reported so far that the deal allows Israel to hit back if attacked.. Developing

Mid Term Elections

It looks like Joe Lieberman will lose the Democratic Primary; a new poll has him trailing by 13 points..

Off Subject :

Books

An Interesting read : The Harold Nicolson Diaries 1907 – 1964, Edited by Nigel Nicolson. UK: £9.99

Views view: An interest in politics and history of the inter war period then well worth a read.

Madam Secretary, A Memoir. Madeleine Albright. Macmillan. UK: £20.00

Views view

The memoir of Clinton’s former Secretary of State is a must read for those with an interest in the international politics of the 1990s. The effects of those decisions from North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Middle East are with us today.

DVD

Good Night, And Good Luck, Directed by George Clooney.

Views view

An excellent film, Mr Clooney and views don’t share the same politics, but what ever your political position it is a matter of Intelligence to listen to the other side and on this issue Mr Clooney is right but one should try to avoid looking at present issues in the context of the issues that the film deals with, context is all important.