Friday, October 31, 2008

Great President

The Times: Has been ranking the Presidents of the United States of America. President Ronald Reagan is in the top ten at 8. I have been critical of the Times and its in the tank reporting for Obama but give its due its right on the money when it puts Reagan as one of the greats.

ARE YOU MIDDLE CLASS ?

Fox News: Reports that a supporter of Senator Obama, Governor Bill Richardson has stated that those earning under a hundred and twenty thousand and under should get tax cuts. This is a reverse of the Obama promise that those on two hundred and fifty thousand and under would get tax cuts. Lets be honest if Obama wants deliver on his Agenda just taxing the rich wont cut it, he needs to tax the middle class, lets recall the message to Joe the Plumber, Spread the Wealth. I will promise you that Obama will raise your taxes voter, and you cant say you didn't get the memo.

New Poll - Rasmussen

Rasmussen: Reports on a close race, Obama 51% - McCain 47%. This 4% lead for Obama over McCain is close to my prediction of the final result, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. It could be argued that the Obama Campaign would be happy with this margin of victory, also McCain should be happy in a way, the roll over by the Democrats didn't happen, thus a good show by McCain. The interesting result will the Congress, will the voters give the Democrats total control of government, has not been a good idea in the past. Election Night should be fun but not long.

Foreign Policy and Obama

LA Times: Reports on the problems that could be faced by an Obama Administration. Obama has stated that he wants combat troops out of Iraq by sixteen months, well with the economic 9/11 we need the troops out before that, but how will Iran test him, as the Article points out the USA attack on Syria has shredded the diplomatic talks, but an new Obama Administration could do a Nixon and Reagan, Obama getting Syria and Israel to do a peace deal. As to Iran Obama is in a tough spot, if they go nuclear he has to attack, if does not attack, Israel will attack Iran and then we have a Middle East War. Iran would attack Iraq, if the troops are out they will have to go back in to Iraq. As to Afghanistan and Pakistan problem, that is going to take years. The Liberal LA Times covers for Obama when it comes to the Bush Strikes on Pakistan, the LA Times writes the following, " In principle, Obama agrees that strikes inside Pakistan may at times be justified -- but experts close to him suggest that many of the strikes authorized by the Bush White House probably wouldn't have passed muster for Obama. ". So the question has to be asked who is telling the truth, in the debates Obama was quite a hawk when it came to attacking threats from Pakistan. Thus is Obama telling the truth to the LA Times or the American People. Afghanistan could become the Iraq for Obama, the terrorists might consider Obama weak and thus start to have major attacks in Afghanistan, the attackers would come form Pakistan, will Obama protect the US Troops.

Reagan and Liberals Again!!

San Francisco Chronicle: A interesting article that argues that the election of Obama is a return to the FDR Era and a rejection of the Gipper. It should be noted that FDR was a political hero of Ronald Reagan, the Gipper was a Liberal in his acting days ( even the great make mistakes ). It was noted in the Times that the Obama Camp will after the election try to make sure that its supporter get a simple message, the goals of Obama will take time, the Country has gone through an economic 9/11, the banks have been taken over, the Western Economic System was near collapse, the USA is in two wars, Iraq and Afghanistan. Also there is the terror threat. The world wont change the day Obama gets elected, he has to wait 2009. Also if Obama moves far to left he will lose the Congress in 2010 and could face defeat in 2012, and Obama is good but he is no Great Communicator, he lacks that personal touch, needs some of Hollywood friends to give him acting lessons. Also the press will turn on him sooner or later, they always do!!.

Obama the NEW NIXON ?

Drudge Report: Reports an Exclusive, that the Obama Machine is throwing reports off the Campaign Plane, the papers of the reporters have supported McCain. In the White House will Obama become another Richard Nixon, demanding loyalty from the press or throwing them in to the cold if they question his actions. If I was running Fox News expect a cold breeze from the Oval Office.

Time Folks

The Times: Reports that after his win on Tuesday, President - Elect Obama will try to make the voters understand that it will take time to achieve his goals. In other words its all rhetoric folks, he will get you to buy the car but don't be surprised if the Car on the way out of the shops stalls, the economy goes in to recession, the wheels comes off, the Obama Plans cant be done, no money. The Petrol in the Car cant get you home, the USA goes in to a deep recession. Ronald Reagan had tough economic times in the early years but the tax cuts allowed the economy to boom for years. Obama folks wants to raise your taxes, tax hikes and recession, let see the last President to do that was President Hoover.

Libya and Reagan

Fox News: Reports that the USA attack intention on Libya in 1986 under the orders of President Ronald Reagan in response to Libyan terror attacks on the West was leaked by Italy to Libya before the attack. The Gipper would not have been happy that USA attacks plans had been leaked by a NATO member to a terrorist Nation. The Reagan Diaries show that President Ronald Reagan considered Libya a threat to the USA.

Terror Message

ABC News: Has an exclusive, it seems the impotent terror mastermind, Osama bin Laden is going to send a message to the USA before or after the election to show that he is still a threat. Osama Bin Laden is hiding under a rock somewhere on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, his power has waned as the USA has been on the attack since 9/11. If does come out of his rock hiding place, lets not cover him, lets show how impotent he is, old rubbish and old news. The advantage of him showing his face is that the USA could take him out.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

08 Race and the West Wing

The New York Times: A great article that points out that the West Wing was doing the 08 race in 2006. And lets be honest the West Wing had better writing, will it come down Nevada again as in the series, that would be to close! Article of the Day.

New Poll - Fox News

Fox News: Reports that 08 race has gotten closer, Obama 47% - McCain 44%. Thus another poll that has the the race at 3% lead for Obama. The weekend polls should give us a good idea by how much Obama will win on Tuesday. As the Presidential race is over it will be interesting to see if the American Voter will give Obama a majority in the Congress. It could be argued that this year we could see split ticket voting, Obama for President and Republicans for Congress, it worked well for the Clinton Presidency. The early Exit Polls should be interesting, but be warned Kerry in 2004 was leading in those before the Republican vote came in later in the day.

Closing the Deal ?

Fox News: Reports on the thirty minute political ad by Obama last night, a split result on how effective Obama was at closing the deal with the American People. I wonder about this strategy, Obama is out spending McCain in every state, after while people just turn off, its wall to wall Obama, it can become irritating after a while, thus in a odd way the McCain message might be getting through, that Senator Obama is a tax hiker who will appease the enemies of the USA.

That Magic 3% of the 08 Race

IBD/TIPP: Reports on its new tracking poll result. Obama is ahead by 3%. As stated in previous post, both Gallup and Rasmussen also have the same result. Lets see if the Obama info commercial can add a few points to his lead going in to the weekend. The Poll found the following, Obama 47% - McCain 44%. The economic attack by McCain on Obama came to late, the American voter has decided on change, they have given Obama a pass on his odd connections and his aim to spread the wealth from the rich to the poor. Lets hope its a quick victory on Tuesday, don't need another 2000 or 2004. Need a weekend break before thinking about the Obama Cabinet and 2012 race.

Whom is Who?

BBC News: Reports on the departure of the Tenth Doctor, Mr David Tennant, he has been a great Time Lord, the best compliment I can give is that he is my joint favourite Doctor with Mr Peter Davison. Thus the next question is whom is the next WHO?

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The VOTER

The Hill: Dick Morris argues that those that have told the pollsters that they are not sure could vote for McCain and thus give him the Presidency. Its very interesting, and how the Elite Media has not followed up on the fact that there is a high percentage of voters who state they as still not sure who they will vote for in 08 race. This blog has mentioned in the past that those that say they are not sure could be McCain voters who don't want to tell pollster they are voting for the Republican.

3% - The 08 Race

Lets have a look at the polls, it seems that the race is getting quite close, Obama is leading by 3% in both the Rasmussen and Gallup Tracking Polls.

Rasmussen: Today's Tracking Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 47%. The McCain bounding on Taxes seems to have helped him in this close race. Lets recall in 1992 the Conservative Attack on Labour and its Tax Policy allowed them to win a close race. It really depends can Senator Obama get his people out to vote, new young voters and ethnic voters that don't vote. If Obama can get these voters out he should win by around six percent, my prediction for the result. Not that this humble writer is more concerned about this prediction being right than the wishes of the voters.


Gallup
: Also reports a 3% lead for Obama. This poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 46%. If you add Obama voters ( see above ) the Obama Campaign has a 7% over McCain. This is predicited result of this blog. If in Obama Campaign can expect new young voters to turn out, Obama is a rock star, also African - Americans will turn out for Obama. Although the Polls have gone closer nothing has changed my view that Obama will win with the following result, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. The economic 9/11 has smoothed the road for Obama all the way to the Oval Office.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Mr Tax Obama

Fox News: Reports that the Democratic Vice - President nominee and future Vice - President of the United States, Senator Joe Biden has stated that tax hikes will now hit those under the previous limited stated by Obama. Lets be honest thank god for Joe Biden, Mr Truth, so we now know that a Obama/Biden Administration will tax the American voter if they make over a hundred and fifty thousand, that's down from the two hundred and fifty thousand mark. The Democrats cant wait to raise taxes on the middle class. Think Bill Clinton in 1992, did you get that tax break, like hell, if you VOTE for Obama you are voting to raise your tax to hand out welfare checks to those that don't work.

Pennsylvania and the 08 Race

The New York Times: Reports that both McCain and Obama are targeting Pennsylvania to get votes. The call from the Governor Rendell for Obama to come back to the State seems to have spooked Obama. This is a mistake on the part of Obama, he will win the state, he needs to win as many red states as to give him a broad mandate. Its the job of the Governor and the Democratic Machine to get the vote out, as the Times points out the last Republican to win the state was Bush 41 in 1988. The Democrats in the state want the Obama money, does recall a episode of the West Wing, its about money, Obama should be back in the red states.

Polls and the 08 Race

Lets have a look at the polls folks. Its getting closer, Obama will win but it wont be a walk in the park. Lets have a look at the polls that show a close race. As to restate, the Gallup poll of likely voters is those that have voted in the past and will post in the future. For the rest of the race that is the only Gallup this blog will report.


Gallup
: Reports a very close race, Obama 49% - McCain 47%. The McCain attack on Obama when it comes to Taxes could just be working, the 2001 radio interview in which Obama sounded like a Marxist and his Spread the Wealth comment to Joe the Plumber has not helped. But lets look at the positive, Obama should draw in younger voters and he should get around a 100% of the black vote, If I was a Conservative African - American I would even vote for Obama. That might sound odd, its not, your not voting for the man your voting for the future, a Conservative African - American Candidate could be around the corner, how about former Secretary of State, General Powell. Also in the likely voters that includes younger voters and ethnic voters, Obama is ahead by 7%. My one caution is to assume younger voters are liberals is bad mistake, they can more racist that older people. Lets put that to one side, Obama as stated in this blog should win by around six percent.


Zogby
: Reports a 4% lead for Obama, the poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 45%. One has to ask now many are not telling the truth, will tell all they are voting for Obama but in the privacy of the booth will vote for McCain, they will say to themselves its because Obama is a Liberal or a Marxist, or his connection to a domestic terrorist or his ex racist pastor. But the real reason is that he is an African - American candidate. As they leave will tell pollster they voted for Obama but the real vote could be different, a hard question but it has to be asked. Are these narrow leads solid enough for Obama. REMEMBER NEW HAMPSHIRE FOLKS


IBD/TIPP
: Reports another close race, also shows a 4% lead for Obama. The Poll finds the following, Obama 48% - McCain 44%. One gets the feeling that with Gallup, Zogby, and IBD/TIPP of a very close race. If the race is between 2% and 3% on election night expect a long night, Obama will win but it will be close. The most interesting aspect for the 08 race is will voters vote for Obama for President but vote for the Republicans in Congress in case Obama is to Liberal. McCain has to keep the tax attack up, really hit the voters with the fact that Democrats according to Joe Biden want to tax lower than their stated limited. The American voter is hurt at the moment but they still want to be rich, Obama needs to make sure that his message of a tax cut is not subverted by his running mate.

Reagan and Liberals

The Week: Bob Shrum writes the following in his article, "..... the 2008 campaign has shown that we have, at long last, entered post-Reagan America. " What is it with Liberals and the Gipper, Ronald Reagan become President in 1980, took office in 81, served two terms and left office in 1989. One of the most beloved Presidents in American History. After Reagan we had Bush 41, Clinton, and then Bush 43. If the end of the Reagan Era, not bad nearly thirty years of influence and twenty after leaving Office. Liberals and this would include Bill Clinton could never understand Reagan the man or his policies. Reagan finished the Cold War, without firing a shot, made government smaller, cut the taxes of the voters and had great economic growth. The mistake Liberals make again and again is to assume that the election of Obama is some lurch to the left by the voter, if they really believe that I have a bridge I can sell to them in New York. The sole reason Obama will win the Presidency is the economic 9/11, he has promised to cut taxes for 95% of the population. Obama will be making a great political mistake and so will Liberals if they think this a chance for another New Deal or Great Society. The USA is a centre right country, people want to get rich, the USA is not the USSR or worse France. If after four years of an Obama Administration the country is still in the dumbs expect the country to turn to the Republicans, Obama could be Jimmy Carter 11.

Monday, October 27, 2008

The Myth and Reality of Obama

Telegraph: Reports on how the McCain Campaign has jumped on the old radio interview by Obama that defines him as a socialist, while Obama is spinning that it will be a new day when he is elected President. Obama was seen as first as the post racial, post 60s candidates, he has become both, his ill grandmother was thrown under the bus to protect his ex racist pastor. His spread the wealth comment makes LBJ's Great Society look like a conservative programme. Obama will win but he cant turn the USA in to France, the House is up for re - election, the Conservative Democrats will quite happy vote against him as with him, in some Conservative areas a vote in the House against Obama will get a Representative a few hundred votes. The Senate will also have Democrats up for re - election, if from Conservative areas and tax has gone up they will lose their seats. Also in four years if the economy is in the dumbs it will be the fault of the Obama Administration. The real problems could be in Foreign Policy, Obama wants out of Iraq, given the economic 9/11 its a good idea, the Iraq Government will have to carry the heavy load, but an Obama Administration might appease Iran, give up on the son of Star Wars, allow the Russia to use her weight in the International System. Thus in four years time the USA will be looking for another Ronald Reagan after Jimmy Carter Mark 11.

The Three Point Race - 08 Race ?

IBD/TIPP: Reports that Obama has a 3% lead over McCain. The Tracking Poll finds the following, Obama 47% - McCain 44%. Interesting the Not Sure level is going down while McCain is going up, it now stands at 8.8%. Who will bet that most of these will go for McCain? Just an idea.

Syria ALL BARK NO TEETH

The Times: Reports that the Syrian Foreign Minister is not happy that the USA attacked Syria from Iraq. The Foreign Minister should make sure that Syria stops being a bridge for terrorists to get in to Iraq. Syria has made herself a outlaw nation, if she wants back in to the International System she should follow the lead of Libya.

Mr Tax Hiker - DO YOU WANT TO PAY MORE TAX

Fox News: Reports on the new embarrassment for the Obama Campaign, his radio interview of 2001. It makes it clear that Obama wants to hike taxes and give it to the poor. Think folks, he wants to give your health care, he has two wars, the terrorist threat, do you think the Middle Class wont end paying most of the bill. Recall Bill Clinton in 1992 and his Middle Class Tax that you didn't get, Obama will make Jimmy Carter look like the heir of Ronald Reagan.

Obama the Socialist by McCain

The Boston Globe: Reports that the McCain Campaign is going after the redistribution of wealth comment made Obama in 2001, this connects to his famous Spread the Wealth comment to Joe the Plumber. Lets look at the context of this comment, he spend two decades in the pew of a racist pastor, he friend was a Marxist, anarchist terrorist, he worked for ACORN now up to its neck in voter fraud. Please tell me how Obama represents the American Dream.

Is Obama a Socialist ?



Listen to this Radio Recording and tell me Obama is not a Socialist. Spread the Wealth, Redistribution of Wealth, does Obama really want the American Dream or does he want to turn the United States in to Cuba, France would be bad but it sounds like the thing Castor would say in a rational manner.

The Five Point Win for Obama ?



Lets have a look at the polls that give Obama a four to five point win over McCain.

Rasmussen: Reports in their Tracking Poll that Obama still has a five point lead over McCain. The poll finds the following, Obama 51% - McCain 46%. It is interesting, this is close to my own prediction of the final result, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. If Obama can win by five points and have a Democratic Congress he can push his Liberal Agenda through. If the USA voter elects Obama President and they find their taxes go up and those that want to make money find they are fined for wanting to be rich then the USA will become the Sick Man of the Western System. Do the American people want to be liked that much by France ?


Gallup
: Also reports a five – point lead for Obama,in their poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 45%. Gallup points out that both Ronald Reagan and Al Gore both came back in the last week, one to win the other to win the popular vote. It would be amusing after all the talk how Obama has bought in new voters if McCain was to win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. It would be the reverse of 2000. It would make for an interesting Obama Administration, he could either govern from the centre or like Bush 43 push his Agenda, it’s the winning that counts not how at end of the day.


Zogby
: Reports a five - point race, Obama 50% - McCain 45%. The race has become closer but in less Obama really messes up over the next few days he will win big. Also he should have long coattails to make sure he has a majority in both the House and the Senate. Folks expect those taxes to go up big time.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Terrorists ATTACKED in SYRIA

Fox News: Reports that the USA attacked a terrorist hideout in Syria. What about attacking Iran, a quick and heavy attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would send a message to Iran and Syria and would also bind the next Obama Administration. President George W. Bush has to set the field for the Obama Administration, if he was to attack Iran, there is no way Obama could leave Iraq. Lets recall Bush 41 and his sending of troops in to Somalia, if Obama finds himself in low level war with Iran he cant appease Iran in first days as President and he would not be able to leave Iraq. Does Bush 43 have the nerve to configure the future for Obama.

Liberal Slant on Syria

The New York Times: As you would expect from the left liberal New York Times, when reporting from Iraq it cant help itself, it does not mention that the reason that the USA might have attacked Syria is because it is allowing terrorists to come over the border in to Iraq. What does the left liberal New York Times go on about, it attacks an agreement that would allow the USA to stay in Iraq after the new year, it states the following about the agreement between the USA and Iraq, " The pact faces strenuous opposition from neighboring countries, especially Syria and Iran, because of fears that the United States might use Iraqi territory to carry out attacks on them. " What about the threat to Western Troops in Iraq from terrorists coming over the border form Syria and Iran. The Times is so Anti - American it cant see beyond its own Agenda. The terrorist attack of 9/11 seems to have passed the left liberal Times, it is more concerned about the welfare of Syria and Iran than the Democratic interests of the West. I guess when the Gray Lady fell she had to fall in to the gutter. No wonder her profits are down, next year they will be kissing the backside of Obama, who will they be critical off, the power will be in the hands of Liberals, Presidency and Congress.

A Nuclear Syria ?

BBC News: Has more on the USA attack on Syria, it seems it was more than just an air attack, troops landed. Why would the USA land troops in Syria of all places, would assume that if Syria has hideout for terrorist than a air attack would do the job. Lets recall that Israel attacked Syria because it was building a nuclear structure. Is the United States concerned that that Syria has not learnt it lesson and wants to become a nuclear power. What kind of building was invaded, was a terrorist hideout or something more, this story has legs, the Syrian propaganda can be discounted, either the USA was clearing house of terrorists or the building has more importance than it seems at the present.

No Election ?

The Sunday Times: Great article on those that follow the USA election in detail! Ask what will they do after November 4 2008. Its simple, the election for 2008 started two years early, thus expect the runners to start to visit Iowa after the Obama Inauguration. Iowa and New Hampshire will be back in the spotlight. Also we have the Mid Terms in 2010 to look forward to, should be a real fight, Obama will be have served for two years, if Taxes go up expect Republicans to retake the House and Senate. November 4th is just end of this cycle, elections, polls, articles about 2012 will start in the new year, if Obama looks like a loser in 2012 will Hillary Clinton run against him aka Ronald Reagan in 1976. 2012 Start here.

USA ATTACKING SYRIA



Fox News: Reports that the USA is attacking targets inside Syria. If true, has Bush decided that Obama is going to win thus he is going to force him to accept the War in Iraq if he likes it not. A cross border attack would need the highest authority at least the Secretary of Defence or the President. This just could be a one off attack, depends what Syria does, well not a lot Syria can do, could this be a October surprise or just a story that will fade away, very interesting development.

Obama as POTUS ?



The Republican National Committee goes after Obama. The Political Ad is quite good, like the choppy waters and how Obama has no record. Very effective but to late folks, so to late. B plus for effort RNC.

McCain WON - Liberal - NIGHTMARE

Newsweek: A what if of history, a McCain win, the Liberal Newsweek would have a fit. If McCain Campaign would put this on their web site and send out through the post, one thing that really annoys Conservative voters is the Liberal Press.

How McCain can Win - Dick Morris

New York Post: Dick Morris; President Clinton's political guru; gives advice to the McCain Campaign. In essence three steps to win over Obama, Obama is a tax hiker, his relationship with racist ex Pastor and that USA would become the 1970s sick man of Europe. These are all excellent ideas but face one problem, its to late, if McCain has come out attacking before the the Democratic Race was over it might have been effective, but he waited to long, plus he does not want to be called a racist, the Jail release Ad still haunts the 88 Campaign of Bush 41. The Republicans should try to make the American voter concerned about a out of control Democratic Congress. Thus the McCain Campaign is finished, its the Congress that the Conservatives should try to keep some influence in, other wise two to four years of another Great Society 11.

The Sunday Poll

The Sunday Poll folks, 26/10/08.

Zogby: As Drudge and Zogby point out in one day polling the 08 race is very close, how many voters lie is a very interesting question, the one day sample of Zogby has the following, Obama 49% - McCain 46%. Is the McCain message on the economy working or have the elite media gone over board, are the voters going to give the Obama Administration all they want, a Democratic President and a powerful Congress. The three day tracking poll for the race has Obama ahead by 5%.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

The Obama Transition Part Four

The New York Times: Reports on the transition period between Bush 43 and the next President. The article points out the paths the two candidates have chosen, but lets be honest, its going to be Obama. The Liberal Times reports that Obama is thinking of placing ex Senator Tom Daschle as his Chief of Staff, the Times of London reported that Senators Kerry could be Secretary of State and Senator Clinton would take the Health Post in a Obama Cabinet. If a President Elect Obama goes down this road he will be making the same mistakes that another President did, that being Clinton. The best first term team was the Reagan Team, they pushed the President's Agenda through, it was when the team left in the second term that Reagan had problems, Iran - Contra. A President Obama cant have that many senators around, they all think they should be President, Obama does not have a record lets be honest, is really going argue Foreign Policy with Kerry, Health Policy with Clinton. This is novel idea, what about Bill Clinton for Chief of Staff, allow him to correct the mistakes of his first transition. Also it would make the Clintons happy, also Obama could keep any eye on both of them, lets be honest Obama will be the new rock star, that will ruffle the Clinton feathers. Also if Obama wins re - election the chance of the Clintons going back to the White House are zero. If that is a to bold of move for Obama what about James Baker, Reagan's First Chief of Staff and Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Biden on Obama by McCain



Its taken the McCain Campaign time to use the Biden remarks against Obama. Its an effective Ad but to late. The polls are what they are, its going to be Obama in that Oval Office, not good idea to undermine the next President. As a political Ad great but far to late, far to late.

Weekend Polls

Lets have a look at some of the polls folks. There are many, but here is a selection that I think have the 08 race about right.


Gallup: Reports that their Likely Voter Poll; the methodology based on those that have voted and will vote; finds a 5% lead for Obama. The Poll finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 45%. As my prediction is a six percent win for Obama this polls tracks with this view, also those polls that Obama in double digits lead I don't believe. Lets all say two words New Hampshire. A five to six point win for Obama would be good and would give him a mandate to push through his policies. Also it has to be asked now many voters are telling the pollsters what they think the right answer is but might vote in a different manner in ballot box.


IBD/TIPP
: Reports a 4% lead for Obama over McCain. The poll finds the following, Obama 46% - McCain 42%. Why do I think Obama will not win in double digits, the spread the wealth comment has not helped, the concern about his national security record, this connections to a domestic Marxist - anarchist terrorist, his racist ex pastor, the voter fraud of ACORN. Also lets be honest you cant discount the Bradley Effect in till you see some real votes. Lets hope the Bradley Effect in wrong, this writer would rather Obama win by double digits than have the Bradley Effect. I think the Obama Campaign would be happy with a five to six point win and a Democratic Congress.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Become Joe



Another great Ad by the McCain Campaign. The USA voter wants the American Dream, work hard and make life better for himself and his family. We are Joe's in some respect. DO YOU WANT THE GOVERNMENT TO SPREAD YOUR WEALTH. VOTE McCain.

Pennsylvania Part Two

CNN: Reports that the Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell wants Obama back in the state. If the Obama Campaign cant trust the lead in the state, then any state is at risk of going Republican. The Obama Campaign wants a historic win, thus Pennsylvania is in the tank for Obama. The Obama Campaign wants to win a lot of red states, thus making 2008 like 1980 victory of Ronald Reagan. Its up to the Democratic Machine in the state to make sure they get their votes out, the reason the Democrats want Obama back in the state is down to dollars. They want Obama to spend money on a state that he is going to win easily. The last Republican to win the state was Bush 41. The Obama Campaign is following the correct strategy to win big in November.

1% lead for Obama

IBD/TIPP: Reports on their new Poll, this finds Obama leading by 1%. The poll finds the following, Obama 45% - McCain 44%. This and yesterday's AP poll are the only ones that show such a close race. My Prediction still stands for this race. The arrival of Joe the Plumber was to late, Obama has convinced the voters that he will cut their taxes and also give every one in the United States Health Care. The McCain Campaign could not have for seen the economic 9/11. The American Middle Class want a tax and also more important they have fallen for the liberal line that the USA needs to be liked abroad. Thus they will vote for Obama and Europe will like them again, that will change when a Obama Administrations ask for more troops for Afghanistan.

Pennsylvania and the 08 Race

Fox News: Reports that the state of Pennsylvania could be play in the 08 race, according to the Fox Report the Obama Campaign has Obama only ahead by two percent in the State. The Obama Campaign has not been helped by Representative John Murtha who has called his state racist and full of rednecks, it should be noted that the redneck was meant as a form of apology by Murtha. As a political geek this will be fun state to watch, as we have the public polls which Obama is well ahead, the latest Poll has Obama ahead by twelve percent. Also the private Obama Poll has him ahead by 2%. It can be postulated that if Obama wins big here as the polls suggest then we will see a massive victory for Obama in the popular vote and electoral college. If by some Act of God McCain should win, expect a very long night. Obama will win but it will be a narrow win, if Obama should lose Pennsylvania expect him to win Ohio. Lets hope its not a long night, its been a very long election.

Obama in Transition Mode



The Guardian: Reports that Senator Obama is getting ready for the transition period between his election and the the Inauguration in 2009. Obama is making a good move, the Clinton Transition had a negative effect on the early Administration, the Clinton Middle Class Tax was thrown out of the window, the problem of Gays in the Military and the problem of finding a Attorney General all had a negative effect. The throwing out to the Tax Cut hurt the Clinton Image, Obama has to make sure that he gets his tax cuts through or his first year could be as bad as Clinton faced in 1993.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Reagan Era Over ?

Forbes: Another article that has Bush 43 and McCain destroying the Reagan Era. This article goes even further, the writes states the following on the Republican Campaign, " suggests that the GOP of the moment is now far closer to being the party of Joe McCarthy than John McCain. " President Ronald Reagan left Office in 1989, he died in 2004, the Gipper changed his era, Small government, strong defence and the end of the Cold War. The Gipper would face different challenges if was running today, Obama would not stand a chance against Reagan but McCain is no Ronald Reagan. Reagan it should be recalled was a great fan of FDR, and in the day was a Liberal. DON'T TELL HOLLYWOOD. Reagan was great because he was defined by his era but also changed that era. The Reagan Era lasted from 1980 to 2008. Even FDR after his death didn't have that much of an Era. The Republicans have to set out a new Agenda but also they have to be tough with Obama, he is a friend of a Marxist, Anarchist Terrorist, his Ex - Pastor is racist. The Obama Tax Plan will make the USA the sick of man the West. The left does not want to hear all that about Obama, the truth will set you free is a great line and true. Obama is the most liberal candidate ever to run for the Presidency. The pointing out of those facts does not make you another McCarthy. Obama will be President Elect on November 5, but also he could turn out be another Jimmy Carter, and of course it was then we had Ronald Reagan. Read of the Day.

We are all Joe !




Another good Ad by McCain, this really shows that we are all the Joe the Plumber when it comes to the tax hikes that Obama will have to do to keep his left wing base happy. The USA is about making it, working hard for yourself and your family, whats the point if Obama wants TO SPREAD THE WEALTH. Alpha Mark for Political Ad.

The Polls

Folks lets have a look at look at the polls.

The New Republic: Great Article on how pollsters view themselves and others in the business. Have to be honest this article made me laugh, they so seem to act like old irritated old women in some respects. I guess it shows they are human, but some need a hobby. Read of the Day.


WSJ
: Michael Barone writes the following, " But political polls are imperfect instruments. Reading them right is less a science than an art. We can trust the polls, with qualifications. " After New Hampshire and the bad polling of 2000 and 2004, it is wise to suspect polls till we get some real votes and even then it is a matter of time, it seems that Democrats and Republicans vote at different times, thus depending on the time you might get a false impression, Kerry was winning early in 2004 but then the Republican vote came in for Bush. Lets hope we don't get another 2000 or a Bradley Effect. A new Zogby Poll has Obama leading by nine percent, Obama 51.6% - McCain 42%. Again those not sure at 6.4%, interesting folks very interesting.

A Close 08 Race ?

IBD/TIPP: Reports that their tracking poll has the race a lot closer that most polls. The poll finds the following, Obama 46% - McCain 42%. The four percent lead is lower than my estimate for the final result, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. As Obama is seen as the winner by the Elite Media, there is more of a reason for the voter to look at the Obama plan for USA. Thus it will be interesting to see on election if there is a Bradley Effect, African - American Politicians polling better than actual votes. But if one looks at the margin of the Obama lead from 1% to over 10% it can be argued that Obama will be the next President Elect, it will be his choice if he wants to be Jimmy Carter mark 11 or Ronald Reagan. The not sure at 12% is very interesting, not sure or not wanting to tell the pollster they are voting for McCain.


AP: Also reports a very close race, Obama 44% - McCain 43%. If Obama Campaign would not lose sleep over these two polls, its going to be Obama, us of the conservative view point will have to wait for another Ronald Reagan. Lets recall when there have been a Democratic President and Congress, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, they mess it up sooner or later, thus after two years of an Obama Administration the Republicans can take Congress again and then the Presidency two years later, Obama is good but he is no Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

War Crimes of Russia

The Times: Reports on a new film; A Woman in Berlin; that looks at Russian War Crimes in Germany after the defeat of Germany in World War Two. The film looks at the rape of German women by Russian Soldiers. The War Crimes of Germany in the Russia during World War Two are beyond human understanding, the death toll in the millions. Thus when Germany was defeated the Russian soldier had years of losses and bitter rage towards the Germans. The point is a War Crime does not justify another War Crime. The rape of countless German woman should not have happened, people are people good and bad, the old USSR was evil so was Nazi Germany, the World is better off that these two systems no longer exist, in their time they killed millions, Stalin and Hitler different side of the same coin. The new Russia should look to show that it has honour to help with financial aid those women that suffered at the hands of out of control soldiers. Ronald Reagan was right when he called the Soviet Union an Evil Empire, a BBC series a few years ago called the War between the old USSR and Nazi Germany the War of the Century. The World would have been better off if the the Red Army of the USSR and the German Army of Nazi Germany had been thrown to oblivion, a few million people could have been saved.

Shrum on the Polls

This Week: Bob Shrum argues in this article that the Democrats will win this time around, and that it will be the Republicans who will have the bad election night. This is the same Mr Shrum that has lost more Presidential Campaigns than I have had healthy dinners, I don't do healthy dinners!! Mr Shrum says your going to win Obama Campaign, get those volunteer's out now, have them work day and night, no weekend off. Obama will win, but there is a difference from a narrow win and a big win.

Lets Vote Reagan

BBC: Is running a Favourite President vote. Lets win one for the Gipper, Vote for Ronald Reagan as your favourite President. Click Here.

Somme Mud by E.P.F. Lynch ( Edited by Will Davies )

Have started to read Somme Mud, The Experiences of an Infantryman in France 1916 - 1919. Quick Review, Interesting Read, but it should be noted that the language used by Lynch is beyond the racial pale when discussing race. But it should also be noted that it was written by a man from the start of the last Century and who fought in the Battle of Somme. The views of today and the correct rejection of racist views by today's generation does not take away the story of Lynch and his fellow soldiers in the Trenches of World War One.

The Character Issue ?

Fox News: Reports that Senator Obama is taking a few days off the Campaign trail to visit his ill grandmother. This shows real character by Obama, in a fight for the Presidency taking hours or days off is a risk of losing that voter, but Obama is showing real character, hat off to you Sir.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Obama and a International Crisis




Fox News: Reports on another foot in mouth by another Joe, this time Joe Biden the Democratic VP nominee. The future Vice - President of the United States. Senator Biden has stated in a speech and front of a open mike, that Obama will face an International Crisis within the first six months of his Presidency. Lets be fair here, JFK and Cuba 1961, Reagan in 1981 was seen as more tough by Iran thus they sent back the Hostages from Iran just after the Reagan's Inauguration as President, Bush 41 the fall of the Berlin Wall, Clinton and Somalia and the first bombing of the World Trade Centre, Bush 43 and 9/11. These crisis showed the mantle and weakness of the candidates. Reagan was seen as so tough that Iran didnt want to deal with him thus after keeping Carter waiting they gave a gift to Reagan the moment he become President. It is a fair point that Biden makes, it can be argued that Afghanistan will be hot, the terrorists will try another Tet type attack there, the Obama's timetable for Iraq will allow the terrorists to up their attacks on American Troops. Also UBL might think this is the time to see if Obama has a back bone and hits the United States, how would Obama react to a major terrorist attack on the United States. Senator Obama has stated he will attack the badlands of Pakistan should the CIA find UBL hiding under a rock there, will he really attack a friend. The Government of Pakistan is weak, the credit crunch has hit the country hard, its looking for a bailout form the West, the problem is that the West has its own problems.

The next problem that could be faced by a young Obama Administration is if Iran goes nuclear and comes out of the closet with the bomb. This is the one thing Israel will not allow, will Obama Administration really prevent Israel from attacking Iran, will a President Obama go Iran in his first year without preconditions. Thus Senator Biden has a point, the kitchen could very hot, but Obama wanted the job now. Also we have seen Obama on the trail, he has seemed calm and confident, highly intelligent, warmth might be an issue, he needs some Hollywood help with that issue. Thus Obama will know that if wants a second term he can not be another Jimmy Carter, weakness does not go down well with the voters in a crisis. Pure politics can someone please tell Biden to shut up he is not helping, this is the kind of issue that the McCain Camp will have an advert out in hours if not a day.

Bailout 2

The Times: Reports on comments by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, in essence after the Wall Street Bailout, Main Street will have to bailed out, money will have to pumped in to the system as to get people spending. In other words a Refreshed New Deal , aka FDR. The problem with that point of view is the fact that it was not the New Deal of FDR that got the USA out of the Great Depression but World War Two. Another bailout would make the USA the new sick of the Western System, the government can not bail everyone out, tough but honest. Think a President Obama and a Liberal Congress and how much damage they will do your pocket book.

Obama's Big Win

The Washington Post: Reports how the Media has elected Obama before the November 4th Election. As predicted in this blog, it can be postulated that the result will be as follows, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. I would suggest that the media wait till the election before getting ready for the Obama Inaugural Parties. Lets recall history, who recalls the Republicans winning in 1948 or the British Labour Party winning in 1992, the polls said they would win, and what happened President Truman won a second term and PM John Major won a fourth term for the Conservative Party. On the academic side am very interested if there is a Bradley Effect, it will clear up the issue once and for all, do voters lie to pollsters that they are going to vote for an African - American Candidate but then vote for the other candidate. Also the elite media should be careful, one thing that really annoys a voter is being told who has won, Obama is going to win but lets allow the voter to cast the ballot not the press.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Powell SUPPORTS Obama

The Washington Post: Reports that former Secretary of State, General Colin Powell has endorsed Senator Obama for President. General Powell is a former Secretary of State under George W. Bush, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton and National Security Advisor to President Ronald Reagan. Lets be honest, the General was burned by the Bush Administration, he sold to the World at the UN that a War was needed in Iraq. The finding that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction was an embarrassment to Powell, at the start of the second Bush term he wanted to stay a few months to see if could do something in the Middle East, Bush said no. Obama should consider Powell for his Defence Secretary, would be smart and wise move, would show he was willing to take Republicans in his Cabinet, also Powell could be running against him in four years time, if he's in the Cabinet not likely to be running against Obama in 2012.

The Obama Transition Period Part Three



The Washington Post: Reports on the Transition period between the Election and the Inauguration of the new President on January 20th 2009. The article to be fair still has McCain in the race but lets cut the bull its going to be an Obama Administration. Obama should seek the advice of Bill Clinton on this matter, his transition was not great, the period become defined as Gays in the military issue, rather than the economy, the Post writes the following on the view of those that are dealing with the transition on the Obama side, " They believe that much of President Bill Clinton's ineffectiveness in his first year can be traced to bad decisions during the transition and his first days in office. " . The Clinton Administration also went through more nominees for Attorney General that I have had healthy meals! Thus this is an important period for a new Obama Administration. The first two things he will face will be calls for tax raises before he gets his tax cuts and also as the Post writes, " Antiwar groups would press Obama to start the process of ending the war in Iraq. ". Its one thing to Campaign on ending the War in Iraq its another when the War is over, its Afghanistan that has seen more deaths of late not Iraq. If an Obama Administration gets out to quick, a few very bad things could happen, a Civil War in Iraq, Iran invading or taking over Iraq. The price of Oil going up due to Iran taking over the Oil of Iraq. All these problems would come from an Obama plan to get out of Iraq in a hurry. The left has not interest in Afghanistan either but Obama would lose his second term if he either got out of Afghanistan or attacked Pakistan. Thus a President Elect Obama will have to make sure that his Administration is not defined by others or by own mistakes.

New Zogby Poll

Reuters/Zogby Poll: A interesting new Poll, this finds the Obama lead down to three points. Mr Joe the Plumber has been effective. The Poll finds the following, Obama 48% - McCain 45%. The spread the wealth comment has really hurt Obama, also the Liberal attack on Mr Joe, an ordinary guy that wants to work hard and look after his family, this worry that Obama is some extreme liberal that wants to take the USA down the road that the UK went down in the 1970s and become the Sick Man of Europe. If was on the McCain Campaign I would send Mr Joe to some Blue States, let him tell his story, he was very effective on Huckabee last night. The Liberal Press have given Joe more of hard time that they have Obama over Ayers, Wright and ACORN. As stated Obama will win but it wont be a landslide, in 2000 George W. Bush won the Presidency and had Congress for most of his term, that turned out well. The American voter might vote for Obama for President but split their vote and vote for the Republican for Congress. The USA seems to work well when the Presidency and Congress area lead by different Parties. A Republican Congress would prevent Obama going to far to the left, also would make sure that he had a tough Foreign Policy, otherwise a Liberal Congress would drag Obama to more to the left, talks with Cuba and Iran, surrender in Iraq. How long before the left want to talk to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Thus it can be postulated that that Obama will win the Presidency but the American Voter might want to balance that out with a Republican leading or power full Republican element in the Congress.

Obama Administration Part Two

The Sunday Times: Reports on the up and coming Obama Administration, the names you would expect Senator John F. Kerry for State, Clinton for Health, the nominal Republican Senator Hagel for Defence. Senator Kerry for State would be a disaster, the same Senator that suggested that if you didn't have a good education you would end up in a War Zone, in other words your thick, Clinton as Health, recall the disaster that she did when she tried to reform health service, Obama must be on a happy pill to have a Clinton in the Cabinet. Hagel would not make Republicans happy, has been thorn in the Bush White House and has opposed the success for the surge in Iraq. If this is the level of the talent Obama wants for his Administration the West will have another Jimmy Carter. Lets look on the bright side, after Carter there was Reagan. Lets hope for the West these are trial balloons, or else time to move to Iceland, it will be less of a disaster area.

Joe the Plumber on Huckabee, Fox News

Governor Huckabee had Joe the Plumber on his show, felt sorry for Joe, all he did was ask a question of Senator Obama and the Elite Media wants to destroy him. If your an American voter before you vote you should ask yourself, if you ask a President Obama a question that throws him will you get the IRS or the Secret Service on your back never mind the Elite Media. Joe asked a simple question about taxes, he wanted to buy a business and to make life good for himself and his family, the way the elite media has reacted you would think that Joe had insulted Senator Obama. When you go and vote in November do you really know Senator Obama, will you get that tax cut, will you get a health care or will you get hire taxes, no health care and PC world gone mad. If you ask a question of Obama will you be destroyed by the elite media. In Senator McCain you get a maverick war hero, a man that has stood up to his own party, has Obama.
Remember Joe on November 4, 2008.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

New Gallup Poll

Gallup: Has a new Poll, as before Gallup has three different versions of the Poll, one of Registered voters, Likely Voters1, this version is their traditional LV, those that have will vote and have voted in the past. LV2, this version if for new young voters and those from ethnic backgrounds that do not on the whole vote.


Gallup LV1: This version of the Poll has a very close race, Obama 49% - McCain 47%. As Gallup points out this has been running for the past three days, the tax attack against Obama by McCain might just be working. Also LV2 also shows a narrow race, this shows that the race is a four point difference, here the polls finds the following, Obama 50% - McCain 46%. It would be interesting to see if this poll narrows even more or expands to favour Obama. That's the problem Obama will find over the next seventeen days, the media, lets cut the crap has this race over. Thus if you keep telling people that Obama is going to win, the voters will start to look at Obama. If McCain can make Obama look like another Walter Mondale his big win might turn out to be a very narrow win. It would be ironic if Obama was to win the Presidency through the Electoral College but to lose the popular vote. Obama could be the George W. Bush of 2000.

Obama's Socialism



Fox News: Reports that the McCain Campaign is going after the tax policies of Senator Obama. Senator McCain has called the Obama Tax Plan a left wing socialist attempt to spread the wealth. The Obama Middle Class tax cut promise ran a bell in the old memory, another Democratic Nominee also called for a tax cut for the Middle Class, lets see who was that, yes it was the first " Black " President, Bill Clinton. Folks do you recall getting a Tax cut in 1992 from Bill Clinton, if you cant, don't worry it didn't happen, it was thrown through the window. That's the problem with Democrats they promise you the earth but when they get elected they have to go back to their power bases. The Obama Camp has promised a tax cut, health care for all, if you trust Obama will carry through on that I have a Bridge in Brooklyn I can sell you, no questions asked. In other words the promises of Obama are like the IS of Bill Clinton. It should be recalled that in 1992 the economic condition was bad but nothing the recent economic 9/11. It can be postulated that Obama will have to raise your taxes to pay for the bailout and his welfare to those that don't pay tax. If you vote for Obama and this turns out to be the reality you cant say it was a surprise. Also he would have left wing Congress, think before you vote.

The Voter and Polls


Ann Coulter: Reports how polls on the whole never favour the Republicans. Read of the Day.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Obama Administration Part One



Telegraph: Has a follow up article on a interview that Senator Obama has given to the Rolling Stone Magazine. In the article Obama admits that his Administration will have tough choices, and people are not going to be happy. As stated Obama is a smart operator, his biggest problem will be the Democratic Congress, they will want to spend like its Xmas. If Obama wants to win a second term he needs to make sure that he gets his tax cut and also is seen to support the middle class. If the Democratic Congress takes the Obama Administration to left wing, the following will happen, the Democrats will lose Congress and and Obama will be one term President. Lets be honest folks this what makes politics fun.

The Reagan Era ?

National Journal: An article that looks at the prospect of a Democratic Landslide in November, the Presidency and the House and Senate. Is this like the Reagan victory in 1980 a turning point, a return to the Great Society mode of the 60s. The article asks a very interesting question, " If Obama wins, the threshold question he'll face in devising his governing strategy will be whether his election represents a triumph over just McCain and Bush -- or the conquest of Reagan, too. " Obama comes across as a smart operator, also he has said some kind things about the Reagan Era if not the policies, thus his real problem will be the Liberals in Congress, who might miss read the results as some return to the Big Government, High Taxes of the 60s and 70s. What Obama does not want to happen is that he ends up a one term President, that would almost be as bad as losing now. Thus it can be postulated that Obama will have to keep the Congress at arms length, he might have to run against them four years later, if after four years taxes, inflation and unemployment is up, the folks will blame Obama, thus it can be argued that Obama needs to make sure he that he gets his tax cuts and that the Congress does not blind side him with sharp tax raises, makes him have a weak Foreign Policy and tries to micro manage Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama if he is not careful could become the next Jimmy Carter not Ronald Reagan and in thirty years time they will not be discussing the Obama Era.

Weekend Polls

Lets have a look at some of the Polls folks.

Gallup: Likely Voters: This Poll of three different outcomes, has a very close race, Obama 49% - McCain 47%. If this was the state of the race before November Vote then it could be postulated that McCain would win the Presidency. This would take in to consideration what happened in New Hampshire, Obama was well ahead in double digits but still lost to Hillary Clinton. But Gallup has three different versions of this Poll, lets look at the Likely Voters that includes first time voters and those from a ethnic minority. As Obama is a rock star in these groups, Gallup has the following result, Obama 51% - McCain 45%. Its getting over that 50% that counts at the end of the day, Bill Clinton never got over 50% in either Presidential Election. Thus with the rock star status of Obama it could be argued that the expanded likely voter is closer to the truth. On another matter, saw McCain and Obama at a Charity Dinner last night, McCain was better on the humour, when Obama gets elected he needs to hire the writers for McCain, humour is not a Obama strong point.


Rasmussen: Reports that Obama has a four point lead, if one takes in to consideration Gallup LV1, in which Obama has a two point lead and the Rasmussen Poll that has four points then Obama is ahead at about three points. The Rasmussen Poll found the following, Obama 50% - McCain 46%. The academic fun of election night will be to see who gets right with a few percent points, it helps to see who is on the ball. Also it will help the pollsters, they will now know which questions to ask to see if the voters are telling them the truth.


IBD/TIPP: Reports a very close race, Obama 45% - McCain 42%. It has been noted by IBD and others that this poll was very close to the actual result in 2004. An interesting figure is those that state they haven't made their mind up yet, that stands at whopping 13%. Lets postulate that these voters are going to vote for Senator McCain but don't want to tell the pollster why, one could guess, one reason being the Bradley Effect just for some but one reason. Lets see if that 13% make their mind up before November 4th. Also lets see the prediction before the election.*
* The Latest IBD/TIPP: This shows that Obama has a five percent lead ( if you round the percent up ) The New Poll finds the following, Obama 46% - McCain 41%. What is interesting is that those that have not made their mind up stands at 14%. One should never make a prediction but one could postulate a Obama win in the following manner, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. This if it happened would be a lot closer but the six percent win would fall in to the average of the polls.


The RCP average of the Polls is Obama 6.9% ahead of McCain.

Mr Joe and Obama



A hard hitting Ad by McCain that uses the words of Obama against him. That Spread the Wealth comment could cost him a few points on election day. Thank God for Mr Joe the Plumber.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Obama and ACORN ( Voter Fraud )

Fox News: Reports on the close relationship between Senator Obama and Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, ACORN. This liberal left wing group are up to their necks in voter fraud. Its seems that Obama is using an old Bill Clinton trick, he is using rhetoric to cover his close relationship, in Obama World if they didn't pay him that means the he and the group had no formal relationship. As in Bill Clinton never had sex with an Intern. Obama gave them his free time to train people in how to get out the vote, the same group that is under investigation for voter fraud around the United States.

What If...McCain is POTUS

Telegraph: If your political junkie read this article, it asks the most powerful question in the English Language, What If, in this context what if McCain's wins. The article states the following, " And yet – If it's all over bar the voting, then why is no one acting like it's over? More to the point, why are Democrats so nervous? " Its kind of article that is you will find the UK and USA broadsheets. They all ask the same question, is there a Bradley Effect, African American Candidates who poll well but when the voters get to vote in secret they vote for the white guy. This blog has has linked to few articles on the subject. There is an interesting Gallup Poll, Gallup has three different versions with different methodology, here is the Traditional one of Likely Voters. Obama 49% - McCain 47%. This Poll was one before the Debate and Joe the Plumber. This blog has argued that this race is over, even with these polls showing a close race it can be argued that Obama will win, the Great Depression of 2008 has helped Obama. It can also be postulated that it will be a long night, not like 2000 but long, still expect a President - Elect Obama, but it wont be a cake walk for Obama.

Fight for the USA



McCain has gone all populist, them, the Wall Street type against Middle America. A nice critic of Obama and his " Spread the Wealth Comment ". McCain needs to keep the message on Tax, to make Obama another Jimmy Carter or Walter Mondale. It a race for Obama to lose.

No Joe, NOT A WORKER,- NYT

The New York Times: Reports on one of the stars of the Presidential Debate last night, yes Joe Wurzelbacher the Ohio plumber. Those kind to read this blog might recall Obama's remark that he wanted to spread the wealth when Mr Wurzelbacher asked him how his plan to buy a small business would be effected by the Obama Tax Hikes. As the Liberal Times states, the Senator was honest Joe's money would be taken and given to the poor. As you might recalled I thought this would hurt Obama and McCain came back to the issue last night. The Liberal Times wanting to cover Obama writes the following, " So are there “millions more like Joe the Plumber,” as Mr. McCain contended? Probably not..." There are still two weeks before the election, Obama is going to win, but it will be close, and the reason it will be close is not because of race, but because Obama is a classical Liberal Democrat, a tax hiker who is weak on Foreign Policy.

Debate Reviews

New York Post: Dick Morris; Bill Clinton's former political guru; argues that McCain has helped himself with the third debate, McCain stressed the tax difference between himself and Obama, Morris writes the following, " McCain has now established the tax issue in a way he has not been able to do so far in the contest. Now he can widen the gap between the campaigns on this key issue. " Morris argues that the McCain Camp needs to stress that Obama is a tax and spend liberal, that this issue nearly worked for President George H.W. Bush in 1992. The McCain Camp should tress the tax issue also but also the odd connections between Obama and the Domestic Terrorist Ayers, the Racist Pastor Wright and the voter fraud group ACORN. It can be argued that this race is over and that Obama has won, but McCain can make sure that Obama has to earn it and that the Presidency does not fall in to his lap.

Titanic Relics

BBC News: Reports that the last living survivor of the Titanic is selling her relics as to pay for her nursing needs for the future. Its a shame that those that have made money from the Titanic could not find some way to help her, lets face its an industry. Lets get something going folks, there must be companies either in film or the successor to the White Star Line that could help. This is the last link to the Titanic folks.

Live Debate Post

2.00am: Thus the last debate about to start.

2.00am: Will McCain take the fight to Obama. Will McCain wimp out, Can Obama handle a tough Debate.

2.01am: Debate starts, Moderator, Domestic Policy for the debate. The Rules of the debate, free for the candidates.

2.02am: Question on the Economy, the plans of the candidates. McCain the first to answer question. McCain Americans are hurting and angry. The Fault of Wall Street. The Fault of Fanny Mae and Mac part of the problem, people need to stay in their homes. Buy bad debts of houses.

2.05am: Obama this is another Great Depression. Bailout a first step, the middle class need a bailout. Focus on Jobs, good move by Obama, Tax Cut for the Middle Class. Home owners should be helped. Does not agree on the McCain on the house planning. Long term problems, education, health, energy.

2.08am, McCain on the Obama comment on spreading the wealth, will help the middle class. Obama does not agree with the McCain impression of the Obama Plan. Obama will give the middle class a tax cut. All very wonky. Obama good on middle class tax cuts. Help the middle class.

2.11am: McCain makes Obama look like a tax and spend Liberal. Obama is just doing his stump speech. Obama wants to hit the rich. Obama got core to pay for, McCain lets cut tax.

2.13am: Reduce the Government spending question. Cut back reality. What will get cut. Obama tough choices, Obama does not want to answer question. Obama is getting very wonky again. Obama the usual speech, didn't answer the question on cuts.

2.16am: McCain goes back to the great depression, need to keep people in their houses. McCain the need for nuclear power. Both Obama and McCain not going off the stump speech. McCain back on freeze. At this rate another boring debate, neither wants to make a mistake. McCain going over the same stuff, saved money in the past. Obama needs a skilled budget cuts.

2.20am: Obama on going over past history. McCain good line, Obama if you want to run against Bush you should have run four years ago.

2.22am: McCain asked what Obama has not done that is not left wing. Selective and very small areas of voting against the trend. Obama attacks Fox News. McCain has supported Bush. McCain goes through record of reform.

2.25am: High road election question. McCain asked for town hall meetings, Obama said NO. McCain goes to the Lewis Comment. That McCain was racist. Obama in the view of McCain has a negative Campaign. McCain Obama does not tell the truth. Obama wants out of the subject. Obama is spending more on negative ads. Obama wants to change the subject. McCain that Obama is attacking every day.

2.31am: Obama has allowed himself to get in to this debate. Obama needs to change the subject. Obama goes on about change. Obama goes brings up Ayers. McCain needs to use this now. McCain has allowed Ayers to go. McCain on Ayers and ACORN, good attack. Obama answers these questions, Obama was a terrorist, Obama served on Board. Ayers not part of the Campaign. ACORN, paid for votes, Obama needs to get off this subject. What will McCain do with these answers. McCain attacks Obama on his Ayers relationship. Obama is not happy.

2.40am: Would Biden be a good President. Obama thrilled about Biden. The usual spin.

2.42am: Why Palin be a good President. Reformer. The McCain spin.

2.44am: Obama the voters will decide on Palin. McCain, Biden wrong on past Foreign Policy.

2.46am: Reduce oil from abroad: McCain the need for nuclear plans, Obama is to green. Obama turn, 10 years to reduce plan. He is going after the Nevada votes. Obama back on the stump speech. Free Trade support by Obama but wants more regulation for Labour. McCain goes on about Free Trade, Obama needs to travel more to understand free trade. Obama more concerned about human rights that USA national security.

The last half hour coming up.

2.55am: McCain, Obama wont support our allies but will talk to enemies.

2.56am: Health Care costs. Obama issue to break you heart, personal stories used to make point. The Stump speech. Obama is pandering, will cost money but is good policy.

2.58am: McCain, the stump speech. the debate is getting boring. McCain needs to back to Ayers and ACORN. Obama will fine those that that don't have his health care. A good direct question. Obama zero payment, small business is out of the scheme. Obama back to policy wonk.

3.02am: Obama attacking the McCain plan. McCain will tax health care benefits. Obama back to policy wonk. Obama's spread the wealth the comment is hurting him. Obama's plan is big government. McCain the voters will get benefits and McCain five thousand dollars. Obama big government spender.

3.06am: Abortion issue: McCain a state issue. Obama in the Senate is very liberal. McCain will seek the best judges. Obama, Roe v Wade in the balance. Obama support Abortion. Biden also very liberal, Reagan was not a supporter of Biden. McCain is Pro Life. McCain makes Obama sound like firm supporters of Abortion. Obama should get off the abortion issue. Obama is a classical liberal. Abortion, Obama seeks a common ground, good luck!!

3.15am: McCain firm against abortion.

3.16am: Education Question: Obama, economic future and national security question, needs to get the system right, money and reform. Obama we need both, He is right about that issue. McCain, Choice and competition need. The usual left and right split. Money not the issue. Some school a lot of money and still bad. College, better access. Obama local control of schools, but also the need of Government. Attack Bush, he has been quite about Bush. The McCain attacked worked. Agrees with McCain on schools. Bad Teachers are out. Obama is against Vouchers. Typical Liberal view.

3.23am: D.C vouchers, McCain and Obama have a better choice. No Child Left Behind Act, McCain first step. Head Start supporter. Reform needed. Liberal opposed the move. McCain the need for reform. Obama against vouchers, a typical liberal view. Obama is pandering.

3.27am: McCain healthily discussion, new direction, reform, take on party and interests. Long record. Stop spending of the past. Can you trust Obama?

3.29am: Obama tough times, we are in a great depression. Back to Bush bashing. The need for change. Brighter days ahead, tax cuts, health care, small business support. Not going to be easy.

RESULT: McCain win just. Obama will still win the Presidency.
BBC Reviews of the Debate - Click here:

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Third Debate - USA

Its the final debate folks, lets be honest Obama is going to win the Presidency. Thus lets see what his Administration will look like in the early days. One can expect in this debate nothing new, have doubts that McCain will bring up Ayers, Wright, Acorn, whats the point, if he had done so early in the Campaign the polls might have been different. After the election he is going back to the Senate, thus will have to work with an Obama Administration, if he burns his bridges that will not work long term for him. Thus will be interesting to see what Obama states about Tax, Culture Issues, Foreign Policy.

Death in Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports on the death of a British Soldier in Afghanistan. The total of those killed now stands at 121. The low level of War in Afghanistan will last years and will cost the life's of many British Service Personnel, we need new ideas and a new strategy, we are bailing out of Iraq, we cant leave the impression that we are weak, the line will have to be held in Afghanistan.

The Markets

BBC News: Reports on the falls on the Dow Jones and the FTSE, in New York the Dow as down 733.08 points, nearly eight percent of the Markets, in London the FTSE was down 314.62 points, around seven percent. I thought all these bailouts in the USA and UK was meant to sooth the market, what is Plan Z. Thinking all of those billions thrown at the Markets, how many Schools, Hospitals, help to small business could those billions have helped. These polices followed so far by the West could make one left wing sooner or later.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

VOTER FRAUD

Politico: Reports that Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, ACORN has become the latest target for the Republican VP Nominee, Governor Palin. The left wing pressure group has been caught inventing voters in the run up to the Presidential Election. The interesting part of the story is that Senator Obama has worked for them in the past as a Lawyer. Thus we have the domestic terrorist Ayers, Pastor Wright, the ACORN connection, his left wing views on wanting to tax the rich to help the poor, this is the country that loved JR Ewing after all, those left wing views should not be popular, but the polls say Obama is well ahead, something is wrong, either the American voters are going to give Obama a pass for all these connections or when they vote they will vote for McCain.

Turning Left, Bush and the Banks



The White House:President Bush stated the following on the USA Government taking a large share holding in American Banks. The President stated the following, " This weekend, I met with finance ministers from the G7 ....representing some of the world's largest and fastest-growing economies..... the federal government will use a portion of the $700 billion financial rescue plan to inject capital into banks by purchasing equity shares. This new capital will help healthy banks continue making loans to businesses and consumers. And this new capital will help struggling banks fill the hole created by losses during the financial crisis, so they can resume lending and help spur job creation and economic growth. This is an essential short-term measure to ensure the viability of America's banking system.....will temporarily guarantee most new debt issued by insured banks. This will address one of the central problems plaguing our financial system -- banks have been unable to borrow money, and that has restricted their ability to lend to consumers and businesses. When money flows more freely between banks, it will make it easier for Americans to borrow for cars, and homes, and for small businesses to expand. .....will immediately and temporarily expand government insurance to cover all non-interest bearing transaction accounts. These accounts are used primarily by small businesses to cover day-to-day operations. By insuring every dollar in these accounts, we will give small business owners peace of mind and bring stability to the -- and bring greater stability to the banking system....The measures I have announced today are the latest steps in this systematic approach to address the crisis. I know Americans are deeply concerned about the stress in our financial markets, and the impact it is having on their retirement accounts, and 401(k)s, and college savings, and other investments.....the American people can have confidence about our long-term economic future..... We have a strategy that is broad, that is flexible, and that is aimed at the root cause of our problem. Nations around the world are working together to overcome this challenge. And with confidence and determination, we will return our economies to the path of growth and prosperity. "


Lets see the US Government has bailed out Wall Street, the Car Manufactures, the banks, the Presidential Candidates between Obama and McCain want to bail out every one else, welcome to the USA gone left, very left. Who will bet in few years down the line that the system does not allow for success or failure, business will die on the vine, business is about success and failure, other wise you have France or the old USSR, what would the Gipper say about the Bush Presidency. What ever liberal plans Obama might have will never be as liberal as this massive government action, the voters might as well vote for Obama.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Obama's Economy

Telegraph: Reports on the Obama plan to secure the economy of the United States, the usual Democratic line, spend, in this case sixty billion. What about the eight hundred billion already out there to help Wall Street. There is a limit how much government can spend, the pandering of Obama could lead to a recession, the funding for this pandering would be to raise taxes, that last thing you do in a recession is to hit the rich, if the rich don't spend, those below don't get the benefit and every one will lose.

Fighting McCain !

The Times: Reports on a speech by Senator McCain, in which he admits he six points behind and that Obama has the drapes ready for the Oval Office. As the speech was also on TV it should be noted that the speech was not some resignation but fighting talk. The tone of the article is negative, this is not new, the Times has been down on McCain for weeks. I get the impression and could be wrong that the word has been given from on high, its Obama. Lets recall it was with the help of the Sun that Tony Blair got elected. The Election of Tony Blair turned out well, Two Wars and his successor has to deal with an Economic 9/11.