Polls and the 08 Race

Lets have a look at the polls folks. Its getting closer, Obama will win but it wont be a walk in the park. Lets have a look at the polls that show a close race. As to restate, the Gallup poll of likely voters is those that have voted in the past and will post in the future. For the rest of the race that is the only Gallup this blog will report.

Gallup: Reports a very close race, Obama 49% - McCain 47%. The McCain attack on Obama when it comes to Taxes could just be working, the 2001 radio interview in which Obama sounded like a Marxist and his Spread the Wealth comment to Joe the Plumber has not helped. But lets look at the positive, Obama should draw in younger voters and he should get around a 100% of the black vote, If I was a Conservative African - American I would even vote for Obama. That might sound odd, its not, your not voting for the man your voting for the future, a Conservative African - American Candidate could be around the corner, how about former Secretary of State, General Powell. Also in the likely voters that includes younger voters and ethnic voters, Obama is ahead by 7%. My one caution is to assume younger voters are liberals is bad mistake, they can more racist that older people. Lets put that to one side, Obama as stated in this blog should win by around six percent.

Zogby: Reports a 4% lead for Obama, the poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 45%. One has to ask now many are not telling the truth, will tell all they are voting for Obama but in the privacy of the booth will vote for McCain, they will say to themselves its because Obama is a Liberal or a Marxist, or his connection to a domestic terrorist or his ex racist pastor. But the real reason is that he is an African - American candidate. As they leave will tell pollster they voted for Obama but the real vote could be different, a hard question but it has to be asked. Are these narrow leads solid enough for Obama. REMEMBER NEW HAMPSHIRE FOLKS

IBD/TIPP: Reports another close race, also shows a 4% lead for Obama. The Poll finds the following, Obama 48% - McCain 44%. One gets the feeling that with Gallup, Zogby, and IBD/TIPP of a very close race. If the race is between 2% and 3% on election night expect a long night, Obama will win but it will be close. The most interesting aspect for the 08 race is will voters vote for Obama for President but vote for the Republicans in Congress in case Obama is to Liberal. McCain has to keep the tax attack up, really hit the voters with the fact that Democrats according to Joe Biden want to tax lower than their stated limited. The American voter is hurt at the moment but they still want to be rich, Obama needs to make sure that his message of a tax cut is not subverted by his running mate.