Sunday, April 19, 2009

Future problems in Iraq

The Washington Post: Has a timely editorial of the increase of violence in Iraq. The WP writes the following, "... already there is cause for concern. During the past month security around the country has been slipping: At least 37 people have been killed in four major attacks on security forces in the past week alone, and there have been multiple car bombings in Baghdad and other cities.... " That is the problem when you give out timetables for withdrawal, the iconic image of the last helicopter out of Saigon in South Vietnam is something that President Obama does not need. The Bush surge has worked, Obama can not afford to lose Iraq. The Terrorists want to claim that they pushed the USA out of Iraq, also Iran wants to place pressure on Obama, they want a deal, no support of the terrorists in Iraq and they can become a nuclear power. Thus expect more violence in Iraq, expect Iran to support the terrorists. This will place Obama in a tight spot, he can not afford lose Iraq to Iran. Thus Obama can be expected to do a new deal with Iraq, extend the time that American troops will be in Iraq, this deal can wait till next year, but before 2011 Obama needs a new deal. A deal with Iraq would gain the following, it would be a warning to the terrorists that the USA is not going down the South Vietnam route, also it would keep pressure on Iran. Thus at the end of the year Obama will have to deal with some tough Foreign Policy issues, what do with the terrorists that are on Cuba, if he moves them to the USA homeland this will cost him in political terms, no town or city wants well known terrorists next thank you very much, also Iran and Iraq, Iran by the end of the next year should be a nuclear power and Iraq might get more violent. Lets recall that it was Foreign Policy that bought down Carter in 1980.

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