Sunday, April 11, 2010

Obama's Polls and the 2010/12 Elections

Let see President Obama has passed the biggest change in the domestic agenda of the US since the Great Society with his health care reform, and of late he has signed a new START Treaty with Russia and his polls are going South in a big way. All three major polls has Obama on the wrong side of approval. I will use the following key for these polls, A ( Approval ) D ( Disapproval ), in the Gallup Poll we have Obama on 47%A - 48%D. This comes down to one issue folks, Obama has pushed health care reform down the throat of the US voter, he has started to believe his own press statements. Then we come to the Rasmussen Poll, this has Obama on 47%A - 53%D, this blog has a lot of trust in the Rasmussen Poll as it had the 2008 election on the nose as we say in the horse racing. Also the Rasmussen Poll is over likely voters, those that will acutely vote, in the Gallup Poll its Average voters, these tend to be younger voters who support Obama but when it comes out to voting would rather surf the net and that actually go out and vote in the rain. Then we come to the Fox News Poll, liberals hate Fox news but Fox News this blog has found is very fair and balanced when it comes to its hard news, thus Fox News found the following, Obama 43%A - 48%D. The Fox Poll is based on those voters that are registered to a Party. Thus if your Oval you start to worry, all ways of doing Polls has found that the President in the mid 40%, if Obama cant turn this around by late November the Republicans will take the House and a good shot at the Senate, its to far away in objective politics to say that Obama is finished in 2012, but if your Democrat you start to worry, do you need as in 1980 someone to run against Obama in the Democratic race, if Reagan can take on President Ford in 1976 then Obama will face that risk should his polls still be going South in 2012.

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