Sunday, March 14, 2010

Containment - Iran

The New York Times: Reports on US policy towards Iran should it get the nuclear bomb, the Obama Administration has stressed that it will never allow a nuclear armed Iran but as the article states, " the administration races to add antimissile systems and a naval presence in the Gulf........ sure looks like the building blocks of a nuclear containment policy...". The one issue that the article fails to deal with is the fact that another actor has a veto on any containment policy, that is Israel. The Israeli Government does not care if Obama wants or does not want to contain Iran, if Iran becomes a threat to Israel then Israel will take action and Obama will have to life with the consequences, he does not get a veto when it comes to Israeli security. Also the idea of containment is based on a false assumption, that assumption is that Iran is stable, like the old USSR, buts lets recall the August Coup of 1991, thus it can be argued Iran is not stable given the recent protests in the streets. One can postulate that one day the opposition in Iran will get its act together and you have mass protests on the streets of Tehran, the Regime having developed the bomb has to divert attention or they will be hanging from the nearest yard arm, thus one can see a 3am call to Obama to tell him that Israel is under threat from a nuclear attack, that how stable Iran is at the present. Thus folks containment was a policy for a different era, this era requires military action by either the USA or Israel.

No comments: