The Times: Reports that President Karzai has won a second term in Afghanistan. Of those that are kind to read this blog that is not breaking news, the Chicago Fix was in for Karzai, good old Mayor Daley of the 1960 Presidential Election would be proud. Thus far no reports of any one who fought in the 1st and 2nd Afghan Wars of the 19th Century against the UK voting yet but give it time. The result was pre destined, the West needs Karzai, he is our Diem, lets just hope we don't have to give the green light for a coup. The question is can Karzai clean up the Afghan Government, clean up the corruption, build schools, hospitals, give the Afghan people hope. That is the question, my prediction is no, expect the need for a strong man to lead Afghanistan, the USA and the UK can not stay in Afghanistan for 40 years, five years would be pushing the political limit. Thus expect a weak and corrupt government in Kabul, the security situation will get worse, the USA and the UK will come to crossroads, more troops our out, its that simple and brutal. The problem is that the West does not have a choice, you have weak government in Pakistan, more problematic you have a nuclear armed Pakistan, if the West was to leave Afghanistan the Taliban/Terrorists would have a base to attack the secular government of Pakistan. Think of a Pakistan under the Taliban/Terrorists with the bomb, yes India would attack in a heartbeat, NATO would have to fold as it would be seen as weak, this might lead to Russia attacking the Ukraine, yes folks President Obama does not have a choice when it comes to Afghanistan, never had a choice, he has to send in more troops and he can not afford to lose. I wonder does Obama in his dreams see himself not as a great President like Ronald Reagan but LBJ, a man with a great domestic vision who's Presidency was destroyed by a country that he didn't understand but could not afford lose.
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