Another Tet ? = Afghanistan

Telegraph: Reports that Al Qaeda is massing foreign fighters in the badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan as to hit NATO forces in Afghanistan. One gets that feeling that Al Qaeda is thinking about the PR success of the Tet offensive in 1968 in Southern Vietnam. Although the military offensive was a failure that didn’t help LBJ, the war was seen as a defeat for the US, and thus the election of Richard Nixon in 1968. Both the US and the UK want out of Afghanistan by 2014, but that gives the Afghanistan Taliban and Al Qaeda the incentive to wait out the West, both Obama and Cameron want to talk to the Taliban as to allow a honourable exit for the West, but its not going to happen. When the West does leave, and they will leave folks, both the Afghanistan Taliban & Al Qaeda will claim victory, thus they will argue that they have seen off the USSR and now the US & UK under NATO. The result could be that a nuclear armed Pakistan falls in the hands of the Pakistan of Taliban, then expect India to hit hard and the West to be in Pakistan.