The New York Times: Reports on the election in Iran and the opposition to President Ahmadinejad, the NYT writes the following on the election process in Iran, " The country’s theocratic rulers weed out all but a few ideologically acceptable candidates before each election. " Thus the West might find that in the eyes of Iran a new leader is seen as moderate but to the West there is no difference. Also the Religious Elite will have seen what happens when you let your guard down, as was the case with the USSR. When the KGB had tight control of the population in the USSR the Communist Party of the USSR had full control, when the Cold War ended up on the ash heap of history it was followed by the USSR. It can be argued that the Obama Administration is a major threat to to the Religious Elite in Tehran, they can not afford to talk to President Obama, it will be the first crack in the control of the country that is held by the Religious zealots. Thus expect a Chicago type election, in other words stolen. I will predict that President Ahmadinejad will get re-elected and Iran will go nuclear, that will cause an Israeli strike and for Iran to hit Iraq, thus a limited war with the USA.
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